NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 25

mickspicks wrote:TPJ playing, not sure about Oates

Brilliant avatar. One of the Bonzos all time greats. If you look up the word ‘underrated’ in the Oxford dictionary, Scott’s name is highlighted.

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

I feel people are looking at this the wrong way.

The big score is great but importantly there has been a change in Maloney's role that most are banking on to continue and will elevate him above where he is priced at now. It's not like trading in Josh Hoffman after his big rd 1 score as a cash grab.

- He will kick more (5-10 pts)
- He will be more of an attacking focus with good damaging players running off him such as Kikau and Edwards (more ball = more runs and TBs potential ~ 2-7pts and more big score potential - LB, LBAs, TAs, Ts)
- He gained goal kicking duties (4-8pts)
- As a key playmaker maybe hes targeted a bit more in defence (5-10 more tackles + 4-5 more missed tackles ~ net 0)

All of these points (10-25) happened due to the changing team dynamic with Cleary out and no true half next to him. No-one is banking on another outlier big score (although we'd like them) and we know hes fundamentally a guy who will rack up a few Paul Carter awards.

It's definitely a risk that he explodes with 15-20 missed tackles, penalties and errors (boy that'd be devastating and more negatives than anyone ever I think) but with a low BE, low price and potential I've outlined above I can't think of a half that gives better value right now.

Plus people have Doueihi, Croker, JMK, Carty as their 2nd half (or starters if they've gone cheap/been burned by Croft) and I'm sure Maloney will be more consistent than all of them as the dominant half on his team. Note that if you already had two good halves (i.e. SJ, DCE, Koro, Milf etc.) then Maloney is not as valuable. Plenty of cash cows will make more money than him. Point is he's likely good for some upgrade money and good value for a starting half that lets me strengthen other areas of my team first.

I'd gladly take an Avatar bet on this for all the Maloney doubters. For the length of time Cleary is out name any half I can trade in now that people think will give more points/$spent and total $s to fuel further upgrades than Maloney.

Very good post, I agree with everything you've said actually! So Im of course in the same boat as you and I have him pegged for the same average score range: 30-35, but I see an upside that could take him to the 40s which would be a real bonus.

One small thing u didn't mention, but no doubt you've looked at, is that its not just Maloney's big score last week that makes him appealing as a CC, but its his shitters prior to that as well. The -4 is only 2 games away from dropping out of his price calculation, and then the week after the 14 goes too. So when you work out his price projection you are in a very favourable position.

For example, worst case scenario he hits back to back 15s, you still make $50k and perhaps then give him the flick. It wouldn't be an absolute disaster.

But if you give him 3 games to get a good sense of where he's at now, you'll have made ~$120k, 35s~ $150k, and if he really goes well 40-45 you find yourself with a pretty solid cut price half, and have made between $200k and $270k by the time Cleary comes back.

Looking like DCE is a goer The extra cash saved will definitely come in handy for future trades.

I am not one for avatar bets.

But if someone is going to provide better points than Maloney for small outlay, it will be Lamb or Moses

Chucky wrote:I just remembered the rule when mentioning wives/girlfriends. No idea how to post a photo on my phone so I just updated my avatar. Hope that suffices.

Haha, was just about to make a Bride of Chucky joke. Too quick for me...that's what you're Missus will be saying to you as well tonight

Congratulations mate and I can confirm for the other Fanatics that Chucky is well and truly punching above his weight. She goes alright!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Very good post, I agree with everything you've said actually! So Im of course in the same boat as you and I have him pegged for the same average score range: 30-35, but I see an upside that could take him to the 40s which would be a real bonus.

One small thing u didn't mention, but no doubt you've looked at, is that its not just Maloney's big score last week that makes him appealing as a CC, but its his shitters prior to that as well. The -4 is only 2 games away from dropping out of his price calculation, and then the week after the 14 goes too. So when you work out his price projection you are in a very favourable position.

For example, worst case scenario he hits back to back 15s, you still make $50k and perhaps then give him the flick. It wouldn't be an absolute disaster.

But if you give him 3 games to get a good sense of where he's at now, you'll have made ~$120k, 35s~ $150k, and if he really goes well 40-45 you find yourself with a pretty solid cut price half, and have made between $200k and $270k by the time Cleary comes back.

Definitely true. If he doesn't have those scores he's a 500k half after that 85 who is fairly priced. Those two weeks mean there is almost no downside risk for the cash although 3 weeks of 15's will put a fair dent in any good scores.....

Same will soon be true for Brock Lamb and Val Holmes who ideally have another quiet week or two.

Please help me select a HKR

Upvote: McCullough
Downvote: Tevanga

Spectre wrote:Please help me select a HKR

Upvote: McCullough
Downvote: Tevanga

My question was legit. Part of me still wants to run with SJ despite the majority vote for DCE.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Very good post, I agree with everything you've said actually! So Im of course in the same boat as you and I have him pegged for the same average score range: 30-35, but I see an upside that could take him to the 40s which would be a real bonus.

One small thing u didn't mention, but no doubt you've looked at, is that its not just Maloney's big score last week that makes him appealing as a CC, but its his shitters prior to that as well. The -4 is only 2 games away from dropping out of his price calculation, and then the week after the 14 goes too. So when you work out his price projection you are in a very favourable position.

For example, worst case scenario he hits back to back 15s, you still make $50k and perhaps then give him the flick. It wouldn't be an absolute disaster.

But if you give him 3 games to get a good sense of where he's at now, you'll have made ~$120k, 35s~ $150k, and if he really goes well 40-45 you find yourself with a pretty solid cut price half, and have made between $200k and $270k by the time Cleary comes back.

Right so there was a small section that mentioned if you have two decent halves he isn't a must have (Walker and DCE). I dont wanna miss out on the money though. Would you still flick Carty and grab him?

StormTrooper96 wrote:This is only my third year playing and I have never really followed some sort of a strategy, I was always like get 4-5 800K+ guys in my team and fill the rest with 228K’s for the year and put up shit scores. This year I am actually listening a lot to this forum and trying to trade right, save trades, keep money ITB, get the right cows! So just for my personal reference what would be a trade goal

1) Havili (avg 35) - $525,00 and RFM (avg 45) - $675,000. Would I trade Havili down to a upcoming cow at the time and RFM to a permorming gun?
2) Do I just trade RFM at an avg of 45 and priced at $675,00 to a underperforming gun in the hope he can hit his strides?
Feedback would be great lads. Cheers

BUMP

SI wrote:

So much avatar action happening this morning! You and Chewie met up to do some pod racing commentary?

It's the perfect day to freshen up your avatar...

...and that stormtrooper avatar is fake news... does that even look like me???

Milchcow wrote:

Yes. People always overestimate how much cash they can make by trading in a player who has just put up a big score.

I still think Maloney is different because team make up will see an increase in kickign (for goal and in general play) that means he should be able to pos scores big enough to be useful.
35 points is an achievable average for him and I'd be happy with that.

Statisticians need to watch footy. Nicholls is the classic example.

http://www.sportingnews.com/au/league/news/jack-wighton-canberra-raiders-paul-kent-charges-nrl-2018-canterbury-bulldogs/1abwjz1ni5dbh1v1sujzmvtn3a

If this is true, Cotric is a MUST HAVE!!

Milchcow wrote:
I am not one for avatar bets.

But if someone is going to provide better points than Maloney for small outlay, it will be Lamb or Moses

No worries. Just felt someone needed to stand strong for Maloney which I'm sure he will reward with an error riddled performance  

Definitely see Lamb as a goer with those few bench games removed and a strong hold on the starting spot for a while. 6 Missed tackles last week helped bring his price down but ideally he scores low for a little longer and starts to shows me some form before I trade him in but thats the good thing about waiting on his super high BE (47).

I mean the Eels have had some terrible games but I can't see Moses in the same light. Hasn't had a real stinker to drag him down to well below fair value. 35 point avg is about 525k. Hes only at 442k now so theres not enough of a margin of safety there for my liking. At least not yet.

StormTrooper96 wrote:This is only my third year playing and I have never really followed some sort of a strategy, I was always like get 4-5 800K+ guys in my team and fill the rest with 228K’s for the year and put up shit scores. This year I am actually listening a lot to this forum and trying to trade right, save trades, keep money ITB, get the right cows! So just for my personal reference what would be a trade goal

1) Havili (avg 35) - $525,00 and RFM (avg 45) - $675,000. Would I trade Havili down to a upcoming cow at the time and RFM to a permorming gun?
2) Do I just trade RFM at an avg of 45 and priced at $675,00 to a underperforming gun in the hope he can hit his strides?
Feedback would be great lads. Cheers

This is a really tough question to answer as it depends on a lot of factors outside of the details you've written down. And what it really comes down to IMO is balancing a lot of different things and options and trying to pull the trigger on the option that will benefit you the most in the long run.

But, I have the two players so I'll tell you what I'l probably do with them.

Because Havili is not in my 17, I'll cash him out at the most optimum time I think is possible (and a time that fits when I need the money by). Prior to last nights game I actually thought I'd be cashing him out next week, looks like he might be a longer term hold now though. In any case, the point is, he's a CC in my EMGs so cashing him out for even a non playing bottom dollar guy doesn't affect my total round score for my 17 best. But it will get me some of the cash I'll need to upgrade someone like RFM.

On the other hand, I've been playing RFM each week, and will probably continue to do so until I trade him. So, I don't really want to cash him out to a cheapy cause it'll hurt my total points. But he's also gonna require a decent amount of CITB to upgrade to a gun. So I'll have to plan a bit for this one, get the cash I need and then pull the trigger. I may well have to hold him until I cash out both Havili and Croker for example to turn him into Friend or Macca say.

Overall, I wouldn't be trying to time the two for trades simultaneously because you never know what scores they'll get each week and so its nearly impossible to predict.  Its highly likely they won't peak at the same time, you are better off IMO to look at your whole team of guys and find the two who are closest to peaking at the same time and do the double trade then.

For example 2 weeks ago I'd been looking at Whitehead to Taumaolo and thought I'd probably be able to nail down the timing for that one after this round. But then Whitehead scored poorly last week, Taumalolo did ok, but most importantly I lost confidence in Whitehead being able to score much over 40. So while it wasn't optimum timing (I thought it was probably likely Taumalolo would get cheaper after this week and Whitehead probably hit value), overall I thought it was worth sacrificing some $ now to ensure I get Taumalolo's score over Whiteheads this week which I thought might be about 10 - 15 points. So far so good on that one for me, but the point here is to illustrate the balancing act of timing, $, and points.... They very rarely will all align....

Hope this is of some help mate!

StormTrooper96 wrote:

BUMP

All depends on the make up of your team 

I'm working towards getting enough guns in round 13...

For me Whitehead will be upgraded to Fifita (who is a gun playing round 13)
And Harris who is close to peaking will probably be downgraded to a good scoring cow what plays round 13 like Rochow

TPJ or Rochow

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

Right so there was a small section that mentioned if you have two decent halves he isn't a must have (Walker and DCE). I dont wanna miss out on the money though. Would you still flick Carty and grab him?

I would, but I can see the case for not getting him too. I personally think he's a genuine CC.

Moose wrote:
Id be open to an avatar bet, it might have to wait a week as I already have a one week avatar bet running with Rabbit for this week.

45+ average over the next 4 weeks sounds fair.

What bet have I made now under the influence?

StormTrooper96 wrote:http://www.sportingnews.com/au/league/news/jack-wighton-canberra-raiders-paul-kent-charges-nrl-2018-canterbury-bulldogs/1abwjz1ni5dbh1v1sujzmvtn3a

If this is true, Cotric is a MUST HAVE!!

the cash i just put in the bank will be very handy to go isaako to cotric