HomeWith Murray out should I move Nicholls into my 17 hoping he picks up the slack? Other options are Havili or JMK
2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 28
deathbywarriors- Posts : 113
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my tv broke- Fanatics Immortal
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Vanish wrote:I think selling Murray now is selling low.
NRL.com still has him maybe playing this week, and it's totally reasonable to think he'll be back next week.
I'm definitely holding.
NRL.com is meaningless in this instance to be honest.
As is NRLPhysio, he is just posting what is a general rule for a 'hamstring strain'.
We have nothing official as yet from the Rabbits as to severity. He may very well play next week or he may miss a few weeks. Better to just wait for official update.
Mearcats- Posts : 3419
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Cap'n Ranta wrote:
I look for consistency and potential. Want to know that my guys have a good base (fantasy wise), look involved/active/dangerous (more important for backs) and have a high ceiling (chance for big scores) or with no ceiling a promise towards high level consistency at keeper scores (i.e. general base stats (incl. -ves) support a min score of 45-50). Obviously the benchmarks change depending on the position and type of player but thats where I go.
As examples early in this season I see Arrow, Murray and JFH as guys I'm examining in this cut price potential keeper mould.
For me Arrow is shaping to be a keeper based on the following:
60 ish minutes per game
35 tackles / game
150m / game
Puts him at an easy 50 pts a game base which is a keeper to me in the FRF spot (probably not as a 2RF though)
The upside and what cements him as a keeper is his hard running which is good for TBs and his offload capability (Almost 2 each / game discrediting the TBs he got when scoring) . Not banking on tries but theres always a chance.
Will miss a few tackles (2/game) and maybe concede some penalties(1/game) but thats part of the game.
See him in a bad game at 40ish and his big games are Fifita esque. Good FRF Keeper and a borderline 2RF keeper.
JFH
65 mins a game at lock (Griffin makes me question this)
40 tackles / game
80m / game
Puts him at 48 pts base.
Really high tackle count in 2 previous games (50,41) compared to his first 3 (32, 26, 34) with an avg of 65 mins vs 52 mins.
Loves a missed tackle (3,7,2,3,3) - No Maloney but still not ideal
Doesn't give away penalties (0.4/game)
Not as strong a runner (1 OL and 1TB / game)
Don't see the attacking stats improving a lot (upside is limited)
So I see JFH as more of a 42-45 point player mainly due to the missed tackles and feel he's had some bigger games (i.e high tackle counts) that I don't think he'll keep up for a season. Add that Griffin is his coach and his rotation/s will never be as secure as you'd like as well as being a less attacking player (lower ceiling) in a higher scoring 2RF position I just see him being a 2nd tier option.
See him in a bad game at 25ish (see rd 2) and his big games are max 55 unless he bags a lucky try. He's not in the FRF where he'd be a "maybe but probably not" borderline Keeper and a mid tier 2RF guy.
He's making good cash though. 45 would put him at ~ 661k so hes a good cow and short term may belt out closer to 50 ~735k. If he proves me wrong over a few more weeks (while we ride his price rises) and I see some good consistency towards higher base stats (45 tackles + 100m) he'd be worth a closer look as someone I'd want in my 2RF at years end. Just don't see him there now but will pick him up
Murray
60 mins a game at lock
40 tackles / game
100m / game
50 points base
Less missed tackles (under 2/game) with strong TB (2+/game) potential. Always super involved.
See him more as a guy with a floor around 45-50 points a game with the chance to bust out 70s in the right gamescript. Maybe not a top tier keeper but close enough in the 2RF and was available for 500k to consider as a cheap keeper (Solid floor with moderate upside for a big game).
Sorry for the length but loved the topic idea
No apology for the length necessary mate, this is exactly what I was looking for! Stats far outweigh gut feelings etc (though we are sometimes reliant upon the latter) and that's what makes this post top quality! This is genuinely the kind of thing that helps out guys on the forum, newcomers looking for some insight etc and fosters a different strand of discussion from the usual "rate my team" business.
I would love to see this kind of thing done with a range of players, from the usual suspects through to left field options that people haven't been discussing. In fairness, it's basically the kind of analytical breakdown I do in my head for any player that I'm looking at, I just tend not to type it up as a wall of text for the sole reason that it's time consuming and I wonder if it's actually beneficial for others.
That being said, yours has just inspired me, in that I have definitely found it helpful!
Bloody good work mate!
StormTrooper96- Posts : 9974
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Jack Bird trained in the halves in placed of Kodi Nikorima today
deathbywarriors- Posts : 113
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StormTrooper96 wrote:Jack Bird trained in the halves in placed of Kodi Nikorima today
But did he train the house down?
WT Winfield- Posts : 9639
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Vanish wrote:I think selling Murray now is selling low.
NRL.com still has him maybe playing this week, and it's totally reasonable to think he'll be back next week.
I'm definitely holding.
What if you had Murray (2-4 weeks apparently), NBrown (2 weeks) and Kodi (unknown) and are left with 3 of JMK, Isaako, Gosie and Croker?
Selling Murray seems like the best place to start unfortunately.
Vanish- Posts : 482
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Yeah, you are not wrong. Still, even if it's 2-3 weeks, I think he's a hold. He's quite undervalued.my tv broke wrote:
NRL.com is meaningless in this instance to be honest.
As is NRLPhysio, he is just posting what is a general rule for a 'hamstring strain'.
We have nothing official as yet from the Rabbits as to severity. He may very well play next week or he may miss a few weeks. Better to just wait for official update.
Fortitude- Posts : 4623
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Mearcats wrote:
No apology for the length necessary mate, this is exactly what I was looking for! Stats far outweigh gut feelings etc (though we are sometimes reliant upon the latter) and that's what makes this post top quality! This is genuinely the kind of thing that helps out guys on the forum, newcomers looking for some insight etc and fosters a different strand of discussion from the usual "rate my team" business.
I would love to see this kind of thing done with a range of players, from the usual suspects through to left field options that people haven't been discussing. In fairness, it's basically the kind of analytical breakdown I do in my head for any player that I'm looking at, I just tend not to type it up as a wall of text for the sole reason that it's time consuming and I wonder if it's actually beneficial for others.
That being said, yours has just inspired me, in that I have definitely found it helpful!
Bloody good work mate!
There was a bit of this sort of thing floating around before the season kicked off! Its all really helpful IMO. You don't always want to know who to trade in/out you want to have as much information/opinion to decide for yourself.
Edit: I suffer from prerry bad dyslexia, and Cunt spell
Last edited by Fortitude on Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
Vanish- Posts : 482
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That's an unfortunate position :/. I'd still wait to hear more on Murray, because if it's just one week he's a definite hold, even if it means a bad score this week.WT Winfield wrote:
What if you had Murray (2-4 weeks apparently), NBrown (2 weeks) and Kodi (unknown) and are left with 3 of JMK, Isaako, Gosie and Croker?
Selling Murray seems like the best place to start unfortunately.
Playing JMK isn't the worst. He's gone alright on 2/3 occasions this year. Maybe hope Gosie goes decent as well?
standard-issue- Moderator
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12:46:25
Vanish wrote:I think selling Murray now is selling low.
NRL.com still has him maybe playing this week, and it's totally reasonable to think he'll be back next week.
I'm definitely holding.
It definitely is selling low, and he is shaping as a keeper. Won't finalise it till hopefully see the grading tomorrow. Issue is Rabbits have 3 games in 14 days, which is only 16 days from when he did it. If it's a hammy twinge no dramas, but anything more could mean we lose him for 3 or 4 games.
standard-issue- Moderator
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StormTrooper96 wrote:Jack Bird trained in the halves in placed of Kodi Nikorima today
Faaark! Fat fucking spud.
Liverpool_Bulldog- Fanatic
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Trying to break into top 100
Smith
Kikau, Lodge
Arrow, RFM, Rochow
DCE, Walker
Aitken, Hiku
Ponga, Teddy, Thompson
Cook, Griffin, Havili, Maloney
JMK, Kennar, Isaako, Murray
Might use my bank and try get a jump on.
Murray > JFH
Lodge > Fifita
Both straight into the 13 and Rochow moves down to take Maloneys place in 17.
Don't want to trade Murray but could be an opportunity.
Smith
Kikau, Lodge
Arrow, RFM, Rochow
DCE, Walker
Aitken, Hiku
Ponga, Teddy, Thompson
Cook, Griffin, Havili, Maloney
JMK, Kennar, Isaako, Murray
Might use my bank and try get a jump on.
Murray > JFH
Lodge > Fifita
Both straight into the 13 and Rochow moves down to take Maloneys place in 17.
Don't want to trade Murray but could be an opportunity.
Krump- Posts : 8454
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How likely are they to repeat a keepers score and how secure how secure is the position/ minutes in the team that allows them to post those scores.Mearcats wrote:
See, this is the exact sort of open discussion I want to create. Why Wolfie? What is it that makes you think Arrow is a season keeper? Off an obviously small sample size so far we cannot realistically say it's because his form warrants it so we must be basing some of our thoughts about this on his play style and what we have seen from him thus far.
Hence my former question, what do we want to see from a player before we start labeling them as guns and keepers?
Revraiser- Fanatic
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Does anyone watch Don play and wonder why you didnt pursue ur own football career just a little bit more .. ?
Faaark me 'how'.
Faaark me 'how'.
Last edited by Revraiser on Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
Mearcats- Posts : 3419
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Fortitude wrote:
There was a bit of this sort of thing floating around before the season kicked off! Its all really helpful IMO. You don't always want to know who to trade in/out you want to have as much information/opinion to decide for yourself.
Edit: I suffer from prerry bad dyslexia, and Cunt spell
I think you're spot on Fort. Earlier in the day we were discussing the fact that so often our teams end up being similar simply due to the fact that we are following the crowd due to certain names being continuously put forward. While this is all well and good and I have no problem with it, quite often it means that other players get over looked due to the fact that we're not using all available resources and looking wider.
Sure, there will be a large contingent on here that already do this kind of thing themselves and therefore will probably not find it much use at all but then there will be others that it helps considerably. I remember when I first started out and this was the Sportal crowd this sort of stuff was the norm and it really helped me get into the game and gave me a better understanding.
Fortitude- Posts : 4623
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Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Trying to break into top 100
Smith
Kikau, Lodge
Arrow, RFM, Rochow
DCE, Walker
Aitken, Hiku
Ponga, Teddy, Thompson
Cook, Griffin, Havili, Maloney
JMK, Kennar, Isaako, Murray
Might use my bank and try get a jump on.
Murray > JFH
Lodge > Fifita
Both straight into the 13 and Rochow moves down to take Maloneys place in 17.
Don't want to trade Murray but could be an opportunity.
Don't mind the trades to be honest.
Obviously not trading Murray is ideal, but, in this case, you getting in another cow (hopefully) and a Gun. The only consideration I feel with this is, you cant make these trades for every injury. So is to be treated as a luxury.
Krump- Posts : 8454
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oh?Fortitude wrote:Arrows game is everything you want from a Fantasy gun. Runs hard, doesn't miss bulk tackles, goes looking for work, and throws offloads.
I mean, it would be nice if he had wicked boot, kicked goals and 40/20s but you cant have it all.
mattnz- Fanatic
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With Murray missing, what are Souths options to have a back up hooker? Does Farah get a shot on the bench?
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Revraiser wrote:Does anyone watch Don play and wonder why you yourself didnt pursue ur own football career just a little bit more .. ?
Faaark me 'how'.
I thought it was a forum rule not to criticize "the Don" or else you might get a visit from his friends from Yonkers.
my tv broke- Fanatics Immortal
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mattnz wrote:With Murray missing, what are Souths options to have a back up hooker? Does Farah get a shot on the bench?
they haven't had a specialty backup hooker all season, not sure why they'd start now.