2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 31

Shumway wrote:

Good analysis Mearcats, but I think you're underestimating the effect of faster cash generation. If he generates the cash sooner, you can upgrade to a gun sooner and get the extra points from that upgrade sooner. Also as Rippin alluded to, I think you're double counting the trade to call it 2 trades. It's one trade to bring in Rein and 1 trade to bring in a gun or another cow (when we trade out Rein). That second trade is required regardless of whether it Rein or Gosi that you're bringing in unless you think Gosi is a keeper.

Your response inspired me to actually compare expectations and this is what I estimate:

Assume Rein for 3 weeks averaging around 50 gets me the following:
50 points per week for my team. This is probably a 10 point upgrade over my lowest interchange, so 30 extra points over three weeks.
Then I get $150k of extra cash. That can be used to upgrade someone else for an extra 10 points per week for the remaining 17 weeks. So an extra 170 points from the extra cash made.
Total 200 extra points over the season. (note, I have assume Rein is traded out prior to bye rounds so there's no benefit for bye scoring here).

Assume Gosi until Rd 14 averaging 35:
Takes a place in my emergencies rather than interchange, so I don't get his points.
Helps me fill a position in Rd13, so I get his 35 points there.
Makes approximately $230k which allows me to upgrade to a keeper Gun in Rd 14. That give me an extra 15 points per week over the final 9 weeks of the year. So an extra 135 points from the cash made.
Total of 170 points.

So even if Rein only gets 3 weeks and averages 50, he's the better choice to me.

Mearcats wrote:

This is the big thing for me. Sound analysis but we're all banking on a 50 average. I'm not sold. May regret it in the wash up and that's ok, I can't get em all but I'll be passing.

Mearcats wrote:

This is the big thing for me. Sound analysis but we're all banking on a 50 average. I'm not sold. May regret it in the wash up and that's ok, I can't get em all but I'll be passing.

Pookus McFly wrote:I would like to see Rein average 50 when a rampaging Taumalolo bumps him off 7 times and he is dealing with a -14 in his score

Shumway wrote:

We've always got to make estimates and assumptions. I attempted to make a pretty middle ground estimate. He may get more or less than 50, but he may get more than 3 weeks too. Equally, the alternative of Gosi may get less than 35 average.

But I wanted to highlight that how quickly money can be made makes quite a difference that isn't immediately as obvious.

I'm probably bringing in both, but the potentially higher scores and the likelihood of faster cash tips me to favour Rein if I choose one or the other.

wolfking wrote:

Not sure if you mentioned it, but would round 13 come into argument also, re Gossie?

StormTrooper96 wrote:Cameron Murray will be given until the last minute to prove his fitness for Saturday's clash against the Raiders. "He's been progressing well, in skills training with the team," Head of Performance Paul Devlin told rabbitohs.com.au. "Given it's minor we're making sure it's absolutely 100 per cent."

redacted:

StormTrooper96 wrote:Cameron Murray will be given until the last minute to prove his fitness for Saturday's clash against the Raiders. "He's been progressing well, in skills training with the team," Head of Performance Paul Devlin told rabbitohs.com.au. "Given it's minor we're making sure it's absolutely 100 per cent."

dreamers wrote:Best cash cow to trade in??

a) JMK
b) Su’a
c) Rein

(Already have Gosie)