Mearcats wrote:Ok, to be clear, I am not advising against bringing Rein in. I am simply trying to look at it from a tactical viewpoint. I only have 27 trades remaining. I have Inglis, Lodge and Doughy in my side that need to go A$AP Rocky.
On first looks, a switch straight from Doughy to Rein makes perfect sense. But looking further, there is every chance in three weeks that he goes back to the bench. We all know Peats is a tough bugger and he is going to want to get back as soon as he can. He's got a Blues jersey to fight to retain and he well and truly has a fight on his hands.
IF, and I intentionally caps'd that, Rein could go at 60 for three weeks he'd make 198k. Good money. Worth two trades in three weeks though? In my instance I may be better of bringing in someone like Su'a or Gos who has better security. Will be a slower earner and still need to be traded out but if they get 8-10 weeks they should earn more overall.
It's purely a time frame thing for me. And that one week is becoming somewhat of a stumbling block for my liking. If Peats was 8-10 weeks or even 6-8 weeks outside it'd be a different story. With the information that it's 4-6 weeks MAXIMUM and potential return after two to three out I'm struggling to see how I can make that work.
Keep in mind, I'm the conservative type. And my team value in comparison to a lot of you guys reflects that. Fortune favours the brave but not a risk I think I'm willing to take.
Good analysis Mearcats, but I think you're underestimating the effect of faster cash generation. If he generates the cash sooner, you can upgrade to a gun sooner and get the extra points from that upgrade sooner. Also as Rippin alluded to, I think you're double counting the trade to call it 2 trades. It's one trade to bring in Rein and 1 trade to bring in a gun or another cow (when we trade out Rein). That second trade is required regardless of whether it Rein or Gosi that you're bringing in unless you think Gosi is a keeper.
Your response inspired me to actually compare expectations and this is what I estimate:
Assume Rein for 3 weeks averaging around 50 gets me the following:
50 points per week for my team. This is probably a 10 point upgrade over my lowest interchange, so 30 extra points over three weeks.
Then I get $150k of extra cash. That can be used to upgrade someone else for an extra 10 points per week for the remaining 17 weeks. So an extra 170 points from the extra cash made.
Total 200 extra points over the season. (note, I have assume Rein is traded out prior to bye rounds so there's no benefit for bye scoring here).
Assume Gosi until Rd 14 averaging 35:
Takes a place in my emergencies rather than interchange, so I don't get his points.
Helps me fill a position in Rd13, so I get his 35 points there.
Makes approximately $230k which allows me to upgrade to a keeper Gun in Rd 14. That give me an extra 15 points per week over the final 9 weeks of the year. So an extra 135 points from the cash made.
Total of 170 points.
So even if Rein only gets 3 weeks and averages 50, he's the better choice to me.
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