HomeI'm doing the same. As much as I love Sammy, he can wait as Lolo looks too tempting.wolfking wrote:Im a bunnies fan and love bog Sammy Boy, but Im sticking with my gut and bringing Tolo in first.
2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 31
luckynumber8- Posts : 1500
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Chucky- Posts : 3180
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How many times this week have you had your trades as definite?Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Definitely Matterson and Gosie for me this week.
Solid right? Yeah of course it is haha
Solid trades. I’m going a different tack but they’re solid trades so rest assured.
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Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Definitely Matterson and Gosie for me this week.
Solid right? Yeah of course it is haha
Stick with those trades they look good.
wolfking- Fanatics Immortal
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luckynumber8 wrote:
I'm doing the same. As much as I love Sammy, he can wait as Lolo looks too tempting.
Yeah mate. Lets go haha!!
Liverpool_Bulldog- Fanatic
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Boozecluez wrote:
Stick with those trades they look good.
I have a very persuasive personality it would seem.
Who's most likely to have a bumper game and get the cash flowing again? Rochow or Kennar?
Pookus McFly- Posts : 5941
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sajjos wrote:
Of the 6 HOK's who played against Cowboys only Issac Luke had 5 MTs. Rest everyone had only 2 for the entire game.
Conversely if you look at Rein he is averaging 1.5 MT's per 35 minutes of game time.
How dare you get in the road of my panic merchant-making with your infallible statistics and level-headed logic!
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Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
I have a very persuasive personality it would seem.
Who's most likely to have a bumper game and get the cash flowing again? Rochow or Kennar?
Would think it’s more probable that Rochow will score 40+ over Kennar who would need 2 tries to probably get that.
So Rochow for me but I have always preferred forwards
ItsLucky- Posts : 8
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luckynumber8 wrote:@ItsLucky how lucky are you? I once found a four leaf clover while walking my black cat under a ladder.
I chose to buy Nofa so there's that
Liverpool_Bulldog- Fanatic
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Boozecluez wrote:
Would think it’s more probable that Rochow will score 40+ over Kennar who would need 2 tries to probably get that.
So Rochow for me but I have always preferred forwards
That's the direction I was heading. Cheers for the input.
I'm also gonna do Surgess instead of Matterson, this is a gut one.
Shumway- Posts : 121
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Cap'n Ranta wrote:
I like the logic in trying to compare the two. But feel you are missing a key point of risk vs reward. Great to compare what you specifically think will happen but its important to consider the range of outcomes as well. Upside vs downside:
Rein:
- hasn't played that many minutes
- role is undefined (we hope 55-80 minutes)
- Average will be somewhere between 35-50 (53 minutes for 35 points last week - 2TBs included there are unexpected)
- Bench doesn't make a heap of sense (Wallace (55), Arrow (65), James (60), Proctor (80) and Rein (60?) playing large minutes with a 4 forward bench (leaves 140 mins for 4 guys and a Cartwright - <30 mins each)?
- Locked in for 3 games
- May get 1-3 more games (unlikely based on coaches comments and Peats fighting for an Origin spot)
- High initial BE - 24 (limits total cash made)
Gosie
- Average will be 30-35
- Very well defined role
- Salary cap, Hastings and injuries mean his spot is secure
- Plays 13
- Low BE this week (4)
When you consider these facts you end up with
Rein may make 63-144k in the next 3 weeks whereas Gosie will make 150 - 210k all up in 7 weeks (with no attacking stats whatsoever)
Gosie adds no scoring potential while Rein should give 0 -15 points per week on average improvement.
So:
Rein will be worth 60 - 195 points over the season
Gosie will be worth 110 - 147 points over the season
A lot of Gosies worth is in playing 13 but see how the risk with Gosie is massively reduced (good total points and cash). You are asking for an average of 42+ to beat the lower range of Gosiewski. With a high BE and more Peats injury news to come next week it feels like waiting has a lot of merit. Sure you'll miss 15 points at most but will avoid the downside of what could be a terrible decision.
Great addition to add the ranges of potential outcomes. I'm planning on bringing in both, so don't have one particular horse in this race, but I still slightly prefer Rein if I had to pick just 1. Your comments have probably solidified my plans to bring in Gos.
I think you've been conservative on the upside of Rein while the downside is pretty close to a floor. That's what creates all the discussion though - the varying opinions of projecting uncertain environments. The permutations are endless! I think there's a very strong chance that Rein averages more than 35, and I think there's a moderate chance that he's there for 4-5 games rather than just 3. The real upside comes if Rein plays more than 3 games. So you can extend the upside of Rein to about 350 points if you want to highlight the range of reasonable outcomes from him.
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Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
That's the direction I was heading. Cheers for the input.
I'm also gonna do Surgess instead of Matterson, this is a gut one.
Fair enough, (putting points aside for this week only) will you be buying both?
For me it came down to I definitely want Matterson in my team and he is the perfect number 14 as covers half without needing to run 3 in my squad.
Assuming you are buying both then I would only use the BE in this situation for potentially paying less next week
His BE is 20, Surgess has a BE of 49
However if it was only one of Matterson or Surgess then that is your call
Last edited by Boozecluez on Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:23 pm; edited 3 times in total
THEGAME- Posts : 870
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Lolo, Matterson Or Koro?
sajjos- Posts : 2198
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I was going to trade in Aitken for Cartwright ( yeah still got him) but then realised I can get MTaupau .
Taupau is averaging 5 points more than Aitken at the moment. I understand he can have one or two below average games.
On the other hand Aitken might stop scoring tries.
Is there anything I'm missing in making this decision?
Taupau is averaging 5 points more than Aitken at the moment. I understand he can have one or two below average games.
On the other hand Aitken might stop scoring tries.
Is there anything I'm missing in making this decision?
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THEGAME wrote:Lolo, Matterson Or Koro?
Not going to lie, deciding between those three then throw in Harris/Surgess/Crichton and some of the other usual suspects and it's not a matter of IF it's WHEN
Will find arguments for all 3, the past the threads have gone in depth on these guys
Assuming you were going to get all 3 then I would go Matterson, then Taumalolo then Koro
Matterson you know what you are getting and lowest BE
Taumalolo you could argue another week is needed to see if he has returned to 2017 form and second highest BE
Koro you know what you are getting, but has a high BE and pretty much topped out
Note: BE on keepers are really only a guide of when to buy, not if.
Saying that watch Taumalolo hit 100 and Matterson fill in for Aubo at centre..... haha that's fantasy for you
Last edited by Boozecluez on Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:34 pm; edited 2 times in total
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sajjos wrote:I was going to trade in Aitken for Cartwright ( yeah still got him) but then realised I can get MTaupau .
Taupau is averaging 5 points more than Aitken at the moment. I understand he can have one or two below average games.
On the other hand Aitken might stop scoring tries.
Is there anything I'm missing in making this decision?
You are missing that Taupau doesn't play centre.......
Given you have to run 2 centres in your team, who would you play instead?
Taupau isn't a terrible option, it's just that given all the FRF options (due to DPP) there have been better value players to play over him
So unless you have a heap of good centres I can't see the reason to trade Aitken out, he is doing his job and perhaps find another way to get Taupau in?
TheBadger- Posts : 71
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Hey all, few guys on my team have maxed out or are just plain shit and need to be moved. Just confused on what order to do them and who to start with.
Smith
Kikau, Arrow
JFH, RFM, Griffin
DCE, Maloney
Inglis, Isaako
Teddy, Thompson, Ponga
Cook, TPJ, Lichaa, Roshow
Lodge, Havilli, Nicholls, Kennar
Thinking of giving TPJ, Lodge, Roshow a weeks more chance.
Not to sure where to start with the others, slightly confused. Have 164K ITB and 27 trades left. Hopefully bringing in Gosie and maybe another cow or try a gun like Lolo, Fifita or Surgess.
Thoughts fellas? Thanks in advance.
Smith
Kikau, Arrow
JFH, RFM, Griffin
DCE, Maloney
Inglis, Isaako
Teddy, Thompson, Ponga
Cook, TPJ, Lichaa, Roshow
Lodge, Havilli, Nicholls, Kennar
Thinking of giving TPJ, Lodge, Roshow a weeks more chance.
Not to sure where to start with the others, slightly confused. Have 164K ITB and 27 trades left. Hopefully bringing in Gosie and maybe another cow or try a gun like Lolo, Fifita or Surgess.
Thoughts fellas? Thanks in advance.
Rippin and Tearin- Posts : 5031
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Boozecluez wrote:Just a thought I had looking at the roosters bench, if a back gets injured do you think Matterson gets moved to cover? Aubo is at Ctr remember
Yup, I think this is not good news for Matterson. Aubs on the bench protected Matterson and was part of the reason I was pro-Matterson, Aubs starting means Matterson becomes the utility guy by the looks.
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Think I'm just doing douiehi out for gosie and bank the other trade. Can't upgrade anyone in my squad to a gun other than Murray which I'm not that keen on. Could always dump Kennar for rein as well but I think Kennar will score well this week vs the raiders left edge.
Will reassess next week on where my squad sits.
Will reassess next week on where my squad sits.
sajjos- Posts : 2198
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Boozecluez wrote:
You are missing that Taupau doesn't play centre.......
Given you have to run 2 centres in your team, who would you play instead?
Taupau isn't a terrible option, it's just that given all the FRF options (due to DPP) there have been better value players to play over him
So unless you have a heap of good centres I can't see the reason to trade Aitken out, he is doing his job and perhaps find another way to get Taupau in?
Thanks @Booze I wasn't trading out Aitken.
Its either Aitken or MTaupau into the side to fill in the gaps. If I dont bring in Aitken, Kennar plays centre and if I dont have MTaupau then have to play Gosiewski/ Lodge in the 17.
bluetige- Posts : 2235
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Griffen and Lodge, then Nicholls and Kennar can wait a week and wait on their scores from this weekendTheBadger wrote:Hey all, few guys on my team have maxed out or are just plain shit and need to be moved. Just confused on what order to do them and who to start with.
Smith
Kikau, Arrow
JFH, RFM, Griffin
DCE, Maloney
Inglis, Isaako
Teddy, Thompson, Ponga
Cook, TPJ, Lichaa, Roshow
Lodge, Havilli, Nicholls, Kennar
Thinking of giving TPJ, Lodge, Roshow a weeks more chance.
Not to sure where to start with the others, slightly confused. Have 164K ITB and 27 trades left. Hopefully bringing in Gosie and maybe another cow or try a gun like Lolo, Fifita or Surgess.
Thoughts fellas? Thanks in advance.