NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 38

Verbal Kint wrote:

I'm targeting to have 11 or 12 for round 13. That would include a couple of cows who might score crap. Scoring 500 to 600 in total

Yeah doubt I'll get 13 even if focusing on bye trading.. just looking at the guys I could move on between now and Rd 13:

Sua, JMK, Isaako, Hiku, Gelling, Croker, Gosie (who may or may not play 13..) and maybe JFH if he's not still busting out 50s.

Would need to replace a few of them with fairly cheap players too and not really worth trading someone like Gelling unless he comes back and makes more cash between now and then.

filthridden wrote:https://www.nrl.com/news/2018/05/04/stat-attack-kiwi-born-players-on-the-rise/



Didn't know Gavet was born in Aus.

He wasn't. He's Auckland born + bred. RTS was born in Samoa I guess, assuming they've done it on birth place.

Blain wrote:

He wasn't. He's Auckland born + bred. RTS was born in Samoa I guess, assuming they've done it on birth place.

Gavet's Warriors profile and wiki page both say born in Sydney and moved to NZ early.

Blain wrote:

He wasn't. He's Auckland born + bred. RTS was born in Samoa I guess, assuming they've done it on birth place.

Bloody Kiwi's always trying to claim Aussie talent as their own !

A friday afternoon p51 party would be a good way to start the weekend!

Chewie wrote:A friday afternoon p51 party would be a good way to start the weekend!

In case I miss it

I'm looking at upgrading JFH next week to one of the big guns...
And i'll bring Martin in for one of Doueihi, JMK or whichever player is getting injured this week, that should leave me with plenty ITB for further upgrades.

I'm keeping Gosie for special purposes (not to be discussed on this particular thread)

Chewie wrote:A friday afternoon p51 party would be a good way to start the weekend!

Better than my current party of being on hold to the IRD (NZ ATO equivalent).

Anyone gonna stick with Mbye or is he a sell. Had high hopes he could be a potential keeper at wfb

Honey Badger wrote:Anyone gonna stick with Mbye or is he a sell. Had high hopes he could be a potential keeper at wfb

Don't have him but can't see who you'd be targeting to go for that'd be a huge upgrade.

Assuming you have Ponga the difference to Teddy or Turbo is 5pts and are both likely to play origin.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

This is 'Butters' Stacked deck theory to be honest. If you haven't seen his video don't bother but the idea is a player has had a bunch of low scores (relative to last year) somehow has a greater likelihood of busting out a big one. The logic, from a statistical stand point is flawed (its like saying that just because you've played and lost lotto heaps, you now have more chance to win) and even if you think about it from a 'rugby league' lens, most would probably argue the opposite is true due to things potentially not being 'all else equal' i.e game plan change (increase number of decoy runs), player form, opposition awareness of player etc).

That being said, fantasy is full of luck so you never know, the big one could be right around the corner.

I think we all do it to some extent. I have both Taumalolo and Crichton so I've obviously done it twice in the last month! A former gun loses some value and that convinces us he's going to make that value back because some sort of bounce back will occur. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. The Butters Theory mostly falls down because he places way to much faith in past stats returning - particularly fluke stats like tries. And then he uses selective sample sizes. The way I see it, and it could just be a nonsense theory, is that fantasy scores are like rolling two twice. The fact a player rolled 5 12's last season (Crichton's 75+ scores, I think that's what he had) doesn't make him more or less likely to roll 12's this season! I think I'm decent enough at identifying value, one of my big failings is transitioning that value into keepers. I never quite get it right because sometimes I put too much faith in a gun being undervalued when he's actually just no good.

Honey Badger wrote:Anyone gonna stick with Mbye or is he a sell. Had high hopes he could be a potential keeper at wfb

I'll stick with him for a while at least. Hopefully can find a big score soon, but the way the Dogs play he just isn't getting involved enough.

Considering not bringing Cogger in and just saving the trade for Martin next week. Thoughts?

Honey Badger wrote:Anyone gonna stick with Mbye or is he a sell. Had high hopes he could be a potential keeper at wfb

I am holding him. He won't get sin-binned every week. Yeah his KM's were down this week due to Frawley, but that could change any week. Hopefully more attacking stats on the way as well and he could have picked up an extra TB here or there.

The only upgrade option for him is Trbojevic, or Cleary. Trbojevic plays origin. Clearly is injured.

I am considering Grand Angus over DCE/Matterson. Am I insane? Just feel the latter are already in all the teams above me, so getting one won't help me climb rankings. Furthermore, Manly are in allsorts, and Matterson, I just, why don't I trust him?

Here I am placing too much faith in Crichton returning to last years scoring?

Every one keeping MBye now?  I was set on trading him still might.  Was going to skip spending my money on Kennar to Marsters and get save it to go MBye to DCE/Matto as he's in my halves, but I could look at moving him to the back I guess.

Worth spending 200K to get Marsters if I can get Isaako's score this week?

Actually, got Coggar for Croker so hopefully if he can become a 35-40 point player I can play him and move MBye down and upgrade Maloney next week instead.

my tv broke wrote:I am considering Grand Angus over DCE/Matterson. Am I insane? Just feel the latter are already in all the teams above me, so getting one won't help me climb rankings. Furthermore, Manly are in allsorts, and Matterson, I just, why don't I trust him?

Here I am placing too much faith in Crichton returning to last years scoring?

I've been watching Angus' price fall and he is on my watch list too. I guess how all 3 go this week will decide if you are crazy or are really onto something mate.

Lolohea will be up for selection next week

WT2K wrote:Lolohea will be up for selection next week

hmm... this is a spanner in my Fonua works.

RNGD Analytics wrote:

I think we all do it to some extent. I have both Taumalolo and Crichton so I've obviously done it twice in the last month! A former gun loses some value and that convinces us he's going to make that value back because some sort of bounce back will occur. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. The Butters Theory mostly falls down because he places way to much faith in past stats returning - particularly fluke stats like tries. And then he uses selective sample sizes. The way I see it, and it could just be a nonsense theory, is that fantasy scores are like rolling two twice. The fact a player rolled 5 12's last season (Crichton's 75+ scores, I think that's what he had) doesn't make him more or less likely to roll 12's this season! I think I'm decent enough at identifying value, one of my big failings is transitioning that value into keepers. I never quite get it right because sometimes I put too much faith in a gun being undervalued when he's actually just no good.

Yeah the theory doesn't work across the board...
We do know that there guns that are capable of big scores like SJ, Teddy, CS9, Fifita, Taumalolo, Taupau and Crichton. But it doesn't guarantee they will have a big score.
In the same vein, do we expect Smat to have as many HIA's this year as he had last year?
Capewell scored a 100+ last season, but isn't likely to do that this season.