2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread part 43

wolfking wrote:

I've traded Maloney and Rein, but if there is more news on RFM early, I might trade him, although it would mean I have to play Rein or Griffin.

RFM played out the game and looked pretty good in the second half, although he would have had a needle.  Tolo ankle issue might have explained his quiet second half last week.

I'm trading RFM so that he goes big for you mate. I got you

A bit of a random question: I was thinking about the magic number this morning. From what I've read on here, the magic number was around 15,000 to start the year and has now fallen to around 14,000. I assume this means that, at the start of the year, someone with a 50 average would cost $750k (50 times 15,000). And that if that person had of met his average all year, he would now be valued at only $700,000 (50 times 14,000).

This implies we should expect the price of our guns (on average) to slowly reduce over the year as the magic number falls.

It struck me that when looking at which guns to bring in, looking at price changes since the start of the year can be misleading. For example, TOLO has dropped $67k from the start of the year. BUT, IF the magic number has moved from 15,000 to 14,000 then he was priced at 60.9 average at the start and a 60.5 average now. So, he's kind of priced where he was at the start of the year! To return to his starting price, he actually has to outperform his 2017 average.

It also implies from pure cash value perspective - that investing in cash is better than investing in guns! While this makes no sense for an overall player - for a H2H player it could make sense to stash cash away and load with guns at the back end of the year when they are, on average, lower priced. This strategy also takes away injury risk for the guns that would come in.

Welshy wrote:At least if ARey goes down I've had his decent scoring for the past 4/5 weeks

I would genuinely be getting in someone like Koro for cheaper if I had to choose now

I'm not in the business of fucking people over, ARey is a bigger fantasy risk than Dugan and that's the truth

I've been looking at Koro for weeks but strangely his score on the weekend has kinda put me off, makes it feel like chasing.

Thoughts on M Wright as a cashout/cover, when is Taufua meant to be back?

Need some WFB cover with selling JMK, not too sold on Brimson.

Krump wrote:
I've been looking at Koro for weeks but strangely his score on the weekend has kinda put me off, makes it feel like chasing.

A rule of thumb I have around 'chasing points' - if you are looking at bringing a forward in and their big score last week involved a try, then double check your expectations for future scoring.

Thoughts on Barnett?

Reklaw wrote:Thoughts on M Wright as a cashout/cover, when is Taufua meant to be back?

Need some WFB cover with selling JMK, not too sold on Brimson.

Jorge Taufua named in 21 this week, so Wright's days might be numbered

Loomer wrote:Thoughts on Barnett?

Scoring is up and down, and Knight's pack is subject to rotation.

I think if you wanted him then 2 weeks ago was probably yhe best time. Possibly still an option if you feel like a risk

S.O.S.

Keep missing the Mearcats train but would appreciate thoughts

Cook
Arrow Kikau
Harris Tolo Murray
Maloney DCE
Mitchell Isaako
Ponga Phillips JMK

RFM JFH Martin TPJ
Rein Soro Smith Cogger

Bold are my trade out options
Trade in options in order:
ARey
Crichton (Hess?)
Fifita
James (DPP, current form is good)

Bringing in Crichton and ARey fixes my halves and 2RF. Next week's trades should be Rein + Soro to Teddy + Turbo (Not worried about SOO as I'll have cover)

Thoughts?

Think im going to go JFH > Fitz this week as my second trade.

Why must JMK be the only obvious trade out.

Jumping Marlin wrote:A bit of a random question: I was thinking about the magic number this morning. From what I've read on here, the magic number was around 15,000 to start the year and has now fallen to around 14,000.  I assume this means that, at the start of the year, someone with a 50 average would cost  $750k (50 times 15,000).  And that if that person had of met his average all year, he would now be valued at only $700,000 (50 times 14,000).

This implies we should expect the price of our guns (on average) to slowly reduce over the year as the magic number falls.

It struck me that when looking at which guns to bring in, looking at price changes since the start of the year can be misleading.  For example, TOLO has dropped $67k from the start of the year.  BUT, IF the magic number has moved from 15,000 to 14,000 then he was priced at 60.9 average at the start and a 60.5 average now.  So, he's kind of priced where he was at the start of the year!  To return to his starting price, he actually has to outperform his 2017 average.

It also implies from pure cash value perspective - that  investing in cash is better than investing in guns!  While this makes no sense for an overall player - for a H2H player it could make sense to stash cash away and load with guns at the back end of the year when they are, on average, lower priced. This strategy also takes away injury risk for the guns that would come in.

This is a great way to look at it. My focus is always H2H so the tactic was always work my way up to guns. It's hard not to play overall though when all you chaps on here are so good at it.

Side note: Pretty gutted with my last 3 weeks performances as now I have no chance of climbing up the ranks Bombed with Soro and Cogger, plus several players spending too much time on Fortnite instead of scoring well..

This might seem like a dumb question so I hope I get my point across properly so it doesn't come across REALLY dumb.

But whats the point of cover, more specifically in the CTR and WFB positions?

Its hard enough picking a decent starter let alone cover, if a starter goes down and I don't have cover id sooner get 0 and know that I have the extra 2-300k in a player elsewhere to make up for it. In the long term, that better player in the halves or forward will outscore having cover 99/100.

The only reason I have cover for positions is when by some miracle a cash cow ive picked up can cover an injury.

Interested in peoples thoughts on this.

Fortitude wrote:This might seem like a dumb question so I hope I get my point across properly so it doesn't come across REALLY dumb.

But whats the point of cover, more specifically in the CTR and WFB positions?

Its hard enough picking a decent starter let alone cover, if a starter goes down and I don't have cover id sooner get 0 and know that I have the extra 2-300k in a player elsewhere to make up for it. In the long term, that better player in the halves or forward will outscore having cover 99/100.

The only reason I have cover for positions is when by some miracle a cash cow ive picked up can cover an injury.

Interested in peoples thoughts on this.

Well funny you mention this because I never used to have cover for those positions in my final teams in previous years. I think the difference this year is that you don’t get an auto sub you get someone for that position only and people don’t want to take the zero.

I’m lookikg at Hoppa for my centre winger cover

Trading kikau and Rfm out for Crichton and Cleary has got my team looking like Thanos. Smith on the pine so have to play jmk in the 17. Although I know Cleary should lose a bit of cash this week..

Mighty Fishes wrote:

Well funny you mention this because I never used to have cover for those positions in my final teams in previous years. I think the difference this year is that you don’t get an auto sub you get someone for that position only and people don’t want to take the zero.

I’m lookikg at Hoppa for my centre winger cover

Yeah, I understand the thought, particularly towards the back end of season. I guess its about priorities. Id sooner have a cow make 50k in a round and miss out on 25 points. But later on, id hope that because ive generated the cash. I can afford decent cover once ive got 13+ keepers.

Fortitude wrote:

Yeah, I understand the thought, particularly towards the back end of season. I guess its about priorities. Id sooner have a cow make 50k in a round and miss out on 25 points. But later on, id hope that because ive generated the cash. I can afford decent cover once ive got 13+ keepers.

Yeah exactly I’ve been too busy trading every week to worry about 18th and 19th cover. I’ve decided I’m just going for a gun team as soon as I can

Maloney to ARey and RFM to Fitzgibbon, 2K left in the bank. Too sideways, the second trade?

Fortitude wrote:This might seem like a dumb question so I hope I get my point across properly so it doesn't come across REALLY dumb.

But whats the point of cover, more specifically in the CTR and WFB positions?

Its hard enough picking a decent starter let alone cover, if a starter goes down and I don't have cover id sooner get 0 and know that I have the extra 2-300k in a player elsewhere to make up for it. In the long term, that better player in the halves or forward will outscore having cover 99/100.

The only reason I have cover for positions is when by some miracle a cash cow ive picked up can cover an injury.

Interested in peoples thoughts on this.

I think the biggest point behind having cover on your bench is so your hand isn't forced when it comes to trades. If you have starters in your team that you only had as cows or you always intended to trade, having cover allows you to trade to any position. This is useful when you use a peaked cow at say WFB for example to buy a fallen 2RF gun. I'm hamstrung atm with no back cover, so any back I trade has to be for another back, rather than using that $150k they made to upgrade elsewhere.

In saying that, I would prioritize my trading decisions as such; 1. Gun/Cash gen, 2. Value, 3. Out of reach next week, 4. Byes, 5. Cover/DPP
(Working progress but you get the picture)

Trajan wrote:Maloney to ARey and RFM to Fitzgibbon, 2K left in the bank. Too sideways, the second trade?

Not if he's in doubt to play mate.

@Wolfking You brought in Fifita yet?

Tossing up an ARey and Crichton combo but can't stop thinking about Fifita and all those poor blokes that have to tackle him