2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 48

bluetige wrote:

Yes I was, but that fell to pieces about a month ago with a few injuries. I guess for it to work you have to be extremely lucky to not get injuries. I will get about 14 for this round and looking at 9 come round 17 as I don't have the trades to mass trade the next month

Yup, certainly need luck, but I think thats the case for any strategy.

My main concern with the strategy was that it required banking a number of trades (in order to be able to max trade between 13 and 17) and that those trades in the long run would actually be better off used early to generate money and get the best 17 together as early as possible...

But that was just based on the assumptions and analysis I did and so Im genuinely keen to see how alternative strategies panned out and whether I need to make changes for next year...

surmo13 wrote:Just on Martin, don’t forget Tolman is due back next week, good chance he goes back to lock, Jackson goes back to the edge and Martin goes to the bench

Good point, forgot about Tolman!

In order to have 15 in each bye round, you would be able to have at most 3 of these players in your squad at the start of this round
(and of the other 18, 15 must play this week and 3 must be starters in round 17)

Arrow
Cook
JTrbo
Crichton
Tedesco
TTrbo
De Belin
Cleary
Latrell Mitchell
McCullough
Munster
Inglis
Maloney
Holmes

You would also need to max trade (12 trades) between now and round 17, trading out 12 of this week's starters for 12 players who will start in round 17.

No room for any injury to anyone who you want to play in either bye round.

If you do have a squad capable of playing 15 in each bye round, I suspect that your scores for the intervening rounds will be crap, and your team for the start of round 18 will also be crap, and that any points you gain in 13 + 17 won't go close to making up the points you'll lose elsewhere.

Playing a high number in 13 or 17 and a low number in the other is more doable, but I suepect that the overall winner will be playing more like 26 players over the 2 bye rounds.

surmo13 wrote:Just on Martin, don’t forget Tolman is due back next week, good chance he goes back to lock, Jackson goes back to the edge and Martin goes to the bench

So the Bulldogs go back to being shit?

Loomer wrote:

It was the first trade I did before reversing 

My sell list in order of definite outs. Deciding whether 2 3 or 4 trades

RFM
Hiku
Tohu
Latrell

I havent read through the days pages but are u still considering Latrell out ?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Yup, certainly need luck, but I think thats the case for any strategy.

My main concern with the strategy was that it required banking a number of trades (in order to be able to max trade between 13 and 17) and that those trades in the long run would actually be better off used early to generate money and get the best 17 together as early as possible...

But that was just based on the assumptions and analysis I did and so Im genuinely keen to see how alternative strategies panned out and whether I need to make changes for next year...

You are right and that's the problem with this strategy and I will not make that mistake next year. I missed good cash cows in an attempt to bye plan and now I wont have enough cash for my final 17, looks like I will be 1 gun short.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

So the Bulldogs go back to being shit?

To be fair, they haven't stopped being shit

wolfking wrote:

To be fair, they haven't stopped being shit

Yeah your right haha

I think I'd be happy to keep RFM and Kikau for the season if push comes to shove.

Instead of Graham I might just go to Douehi take the cash and hope for some upside somewhere along the line

surmo13 wrote:Just on Martin, don’t forget Tolman is due back next week, good chance he goes back to lock, Jackson goes back to the edge and Martin goes to the bench

Or that plodder goes back into the prop rotation where he belongs. Shifting Martin to the bench will do nothing for their attack. Martin actually looks for an offload. Bulldogs need to score more points to win games, hopefully realises that

Milchcow wrote:
In order to have 15 in each bye round, you would be able to have at most 3 of these players in your squad at the start of this round
(and of the other 18, 15 must play this week and 3 must be starters in round 17)

Arrow
Cook
JTrbo
Crichton
Tedesco
TTrbo
De Belin
Cleary
Latrell Mitchell
McCullough
Munster
Inglis
Maloney
Holmes

You would also need to max trade (12 trades) between now and round 17, trading out 12 of this week's starters for 12 players who will start in round 17.

No room for any injury to anyone  who you want to play in either bye round.

If you do have a squad capable of playing 15 in each bye round, I suspect that your scores for the intervening rounds will be crap, and your team for the start of round 18 will also be crap, and that any points you gain in 13 + 17 won't go close to making up the points you'll lose elsewhere.

Playing a high number in 13 or 17 and a low number in the other is more doable, but I suspect that the overall winner will be playing more like 26 players over the 2 bye rounds.

I've done no research on this but even that sounds high to me....

I have no idea what our man in first is going to do, but Im gonna say, looking at his team, he plays 12 in round 13 and 9 in round 17.

Thats if he decides to use 8 trades to get to that point. He's got 6 Origin players and a number of keepers I can't imagine he'll be trading so getting much more than 21on the park over those two rounds will be tough IMO.

I think the top teams will be in similar boats too (although I haven't checked). I just can't see how teams could be in the top 10 right now without carrying a number of those Origin players, and a number of keepers which won't be worth trading out.

Milchcow wrote:
In order to have 15 in each bye round, you would be able to have at most 3 of these players in your squad at the start of this round
(and of the other 18, 15 must play this week and 3 must be starters in round 17)

Arrow
Cook
JTrbo
Crichton
Tedesco
TTrbo
De Belin
Cleary
Latrell Mitchell
McCullough
Munster
Inglis
Maloney
Holmes

You would also need to max trade (12 trades) between now and round 17, trading out 12 of this week's starters for 12 players who will start in round 17.

No room for any injury to anyone  who you want to play in either bye round.

If you do have a squad capable of playing 15 in each bye round, I suspect that your scores for the intervening rounds will be crap, and your team for the start of round 18 will also be crap, and that any points you gain in 13 + 17 won't go close to making up the points you'll lose elsewhere.

Playing a high number in 13 or 17 and a low number in the other is more doable, but I suepect that the overall winner will be playing more like 26 players over the 2 bye rounds.

Good post.

I'm looking at ~12 for this round then a max of 10 in 17. No chance I can get close to 26 without running out of trades and compromising the final 17 for the run home.

I'm going
RFM
JFH
Lamb out
Graham, Kapow, TMM in. 11 for the round 14 trades left. Ponga C I'm liking atm

Verbal Kint wrote:

Good post.

I'm looking at ~12 for this round then a max of 10 in 17. No chance I can get close to 26 without running out of trades and compromising the final 17 for the run home.

I think for teams that have been playing the long game but also maximising points in the short term will be in a similar boat mate!

22 sounds about right to me and is likely what I will have as well. Even then I'll end up mighty short on trades once round 18 rolls around!

I meant to say a max of 26 in my original post.

Without looking too hard I am sure there are a few people around who are near the top but have avoided having too many origin players who could field a good squad this week.

Use the next few weeks to ditch guys like Thompson, Murray etc and with a few spare trades get a couple of good players in for 17.

There are a lot of final 17 players that miss round 17 though, and you won't want to go into round 18 with too many players missing, so if you are going to prioritise a bye round, this is the one to go for.

Honey Badger wrote:

Or that plodder goes back into the prop rotation where he belongs. Shifting Martin to the bench will do nothing for their attack. Martin actually looks for an offload. Bulldogs need to score more points to win games, hopefully realises that

Agreed.

Tolman is quite an average joe player. Offers nothing other than reliability, which isn't a bad thing, but bulldogs really lack some spark.

Martin won't lose his spot to plodder Tolman. He doesn't have Des anymore, he's been in rumours of being out the door for a while and Martin has been great. They need young talent going forward, they aren't winning this year, it makes no sense to now bench Martin for an old plodder who will lead them nowhere.

Good posting

I’m flipping between 1 and 4 trades this week - which is 10 or 13 players.

Has no one mentioned Ramien because we are all saying to centres?

Because I’m on board with that message l, but I don’t want all of Kennar, Isaako and Hiku in my squad now that Mahe has DPP - and Ramien cheaper than dugan and likely a hell of a lot sounder!

When Is hodgson due back? thinking the best move is just to hold Havili until then, he seems to be getting more and more minutes.

scott suspended and bolton (rib damage) out of the cowboys side this week. bolton could miss more games according to the daily telegraph. jensen stocks probably go up. but also taupau/dce as captains this week