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    2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 48

    Poll

    Who are the underdogs for Game 1 of SOO ?

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    Total Votes: 82
    Poll closed
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    Post by Guest Wed May 30, 2018 2:38 pm

    I think Arrow will back up after origin because he's on the bench so he's only probably going to get 20-30 minutes.
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Wed May 30, 2018 2:41 pm

    Krump wrote:I think @mattnz was planning to have 17 this week?

    Im genuinely interested in how that strategy works out for him. Many, including myself suggested it was a bad move, but time will tell. From memory he was in the top 100 early when he started a strategy of bye round planning 17 in round 13 and 16 in 17 (or close to it) and also choosing a ton of "PODs" but really those where just players the top 10 or so teams at the time didn't have.

    My sense all along was that he wasn't playing a very good long game, but given he is probably one of the few committed players employing a hard core bye round strategy it would be great for everyone to hear how he gets on...
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Wed May 30, 2018 2:43 pm

    bluetige wrote:

    Up to a few weeks ago I was, thanks Critchton, Rochow and Cookie. Cook has been expected to plat origin for a while but those other 2 I was relying on and selected them especially for this week.

    The one positive I can take out of this is at least now I can get rid of the bald shit truck and with extra trades I can do it this week. Bye bye Rochow thanks for nothing

    Out of interest though, were (are) you planning on max trading between 13 and 17 to get as many on the field in 17 as possible too?

    Thats the part of the so called bye round strategy that Im not convinced will work....
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    Post by danseels1985 Wed May 30, 2018 2:44 pm

    No trades this week but at this stage next week I'll be going
    Murray to Olive
    Lane to McInnes

    Those trades sound ok?
    Would leave me with 12 trades and roughly 50k and team looking like this

    Cook
    Fifita TPJ
    Taumalolo Arrow Harris
    DCE ARey
    Mitchell Isaako
    Tedesco Ponga Mbye

    Smith
    Matterson
    McInnes
    Sua

    Martin
    Brimson
    Olive
    Gosiewski


    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Wed May 30, 2018 2:44 pm

    TheWeapon wrote:790 based on averages with 16 playing this week. Hoping to make a good jump in the standings!

    16 is a great number for sure, and you definitely will move up the rankings. As per my previous post though, what are you planning on doing between 13 and 17? If you are max trading, or thereabouts, I'd love to hear how you get on.

    What rank are you now BTW?

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    Post by pm888 Wed May 30, 2018 2:45 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    Im genuinely interested in how that strategy works out for him. Many, including myself suggested it was a bad move, but time will tell. From memory he was in the top 100 early when he started a strategy of bye round planning 17 in round 13 and 16 in 17 (or close to it) and also choosing a ton of "PODs" but really those where just players the top 10 or so teams at the time didn't have.

    My sense all along was that he wasn't playing a very good long game, but given he is probably one of the few committed players employing a hard core bye round strategy it would be great for everyone to hear how he gets on...
    maybe his goal is to snag the KFC vouchers in the bye round
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Wed May 30, 2018 2:54 pm

    Im looking at 580 from 12. Suspect that might be about par or perhaps a little better than average.
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    Post by NewyCoop Wed May 30, 2018 2:56 pm

    Cash out options?

    I’m holding Murray this week but want to cash out JMK so I can upgrade him next week. Is a basement price player of someeone like Olive/Doueihi a better choice?
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    Post by Chewie Wed May 30, 2018 2:56 pm

    There were too many questions around team selection to be able to do proper Bye planning this season.
    Next year planning might be a bit easier
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    Post by filthridden Wed May 30, 2018 2:57 pm

    How's everyones numbers look for this round vs round 17, and how many trades will it take you to get to those round 17 numbers?

    I will have 11 for this round and 9 for round 17, using five trades to get there, potentially four of those trades at round 17 (if I can hold out that long!)
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    Post by mickspicks Wed May 30, 2018 2:58 pm

    NewyCoop wrote:Cash out options?

    I’m holding Murray this week but want to cash out JMK so I can upgrade him next week. Is a basement price player of someeone like Olive/Doueihi a better choice?

    TMM?
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Wed May 30, 2018 3:02 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    I think it makes sense, but what you need to look at (IMO) is (1) can you afford that team, if so great, if not then you have to plan to make that money in the mean time, and (2) figure out how many trades you will need to get you that team vs how many you have left, and therefore how many extra trades you can use between now and then simply for adding to your bye totals. The later point is really about making sure you don't end up with 6 trades left over at the end of the season. The way Im looking at it currently is that each trade is worth ~50 points. So using the previous example you end up 300 points short of what you could have got overall if you had of used those trades in the bye rounds. Of course this has to then be balanced against the risk of using trades now and not holding for injury cover later.

    Keepers: Cook, Smith, Fifita, Taupau, Arrow, Lolo, DCE, Matterson, Aitken, Teddy, Ponga, Walker

    Middies: Watson, WGraham, Murray, RFM, Kikau, Martin

    Cows: Fonua, Brimson, TMM

    With 13 trades in the bank and 150k I don't think Fonua, Brinson and TMM make enough cash to upgrade my 6 middies to keepers

    Would that be correct?
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    Post by TheWeapon Wed May 30, 2018 3:07 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    16 is a great number for sure, and you definitely will move up the rankings. As per my previous post though, what are you planning on doing between 13 and 17? If you are max trading, or thereabouts, I'd love to hear how you get on.

    What rank are you now BTW?


    I'll be trading like an absolute bandit. 13 left, and I expect to use around 10 of them, which would give me (ideally) 13 players for rd 17. I need to go high risk because I'm outside the top 1000 and really just going all out at this point and seeing how far I can get Smile
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    Post by Krump Wed May 30, 2018 3:08 pm

    Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

    Keepers: Cook, Smith, Fifita, Taupau, Arrow, Lolo, DCE, Matterson, Aitken, Teddy, Ponga, Walker

    Middies: Watson, WGraham, Murray, RFM, Kikau, Martin

    Cows: Fonua, Brimson, TMM

    With 13 trades in the bank and 150k I don't think Fonua, Brinson and TMM make enough cash to upgrade my 6 middies to keepers

    Would that be correct?
    You need to work out who of those mid rangers you're keeping for the run home. Even if you had the cash that's 9 trades leaving only four for the run home without any bye round trades. There just isn't a way to upgrade them all with the trades you've got left.
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    Post by Chewie Wed May 30, 2018 3:11 pm

    Brutal axing of woods

    Woods missing out again... just like last time he wanted to join in:

    Missing out:
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    Post by bluetige Wed May 30, 2018 3:11 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    Out of interest though, were (are) you planning on max trading between 13 and 17 to get as many on the field in 17 as possible too?

    Thats the part of the so called bye round strategy that Im not convinced will work....

    Yes I was, but that fell to pieces about a month ago with a few injuries. I guess for it to work you have to be extremely lucky to not get injuries. I will get about 14 for this round and looking at 9 come round 17 as I don't have the trades to mass trade the next month
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Wed May 30, 2018 3:17 pm

    Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

    Keepers: Cook, Smith, Fifita, Taupau, Arrow, Lolo, DCE, Matterson, Aitken, Teddy, Ponga, Walker

    Middies: Watson, WGraham, Murray, RFM, Kikau, Martin

    Cows: Fonua, Brimson, TMM

    With 13 trades in the bank and 150k I don't think Fonua, Brinson and TMM make enough cash to upgrade my 6 middies to keepers

    Would that be correct?

    Not sure mate, you'd have to make some assumptions and then run the numbers and see. I've been short on time lately and haven't re-run my calculations but initially I felt like it was always gonna be a stretch this year to get 18 keepers. Im not sure if that's still the case.

    Martin looks like a keeper to me this season though so perhaps you only need to upgrade 5. if you can make $200k out of each of those 3 guys that gives you $750k and therefore $150k per upgrade (on average). That could be pushing it...that being said there are a number of underpriced players like Cleary, Harris etc which won't be huge steps up.

    Anyway, I think you need to run some numbers to get your head around it all mate, otherwise you'll just end up going round in circles.
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Wed May 30, 2018 3:17 pm

    TheWeapon wrote:

    I'll be trading like an absolute bandit. 13 left, and I expect to use around 10 of them, which would give me (ideally) 13 players for rd 17. I need to go high risk because I'm outside the top 1000 and really just going all out at this point and seeing how far I can get Smile

    Nice mate, I like it. Good luck!
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    Post by Guest Wed May 30, 2018 3:24 pm

    Just on Martin, don’t forget Tolman is due back next week, good chance he goes back to lock, Jackson goes back to the edge and Martin goes to the bench
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    Post by my tv broke Wed May 30, 2018 3:27 pm

    Martin may not play 80 mins when RFM is all good. He did play 80 in his debut, which is promising, but the week later he played 66.

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