2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 52

Anyone care to give a thought on my Matterson/Watson conundrum? Or does it pale in comparison to the trouble others are having?

Milchcow wrote:

Tough one.  30-35 wouldn't be a big surprise from either.

Get the coin flip ouit

I know. Thinking Fonua will bounce back. If for some reason Mitchell doesn't back up they will both be in.

Chewie wrote:Cogger or Brimson?

My pick would be scooty Brimson

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Anyone care to give a thought on my Matterson/Watson conundrum? Or does it pale in comparison to the trouble others are having?

 Id trade Matterson if I still had him mate. Watson could be shifted at any time too.

Matterson > McInnes is pretty straight forward.

Just think if I'm getting rid of Watson aswell then it will need to be a half as Brinson is my only backup.
Can't afford SJ and Clearys game off in 17 concerns me for some reason.

Yeah if you are dumping Matterson, do it this week. He's going to miss 14, 15 and 17, probably 16 too really. Might as well use that cash elsewhere, and his BE is trash. No rush with Watson, have until round 17 to replace him really. I'd take him as a half back up if I could.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Looks like I can have

Kikau, Murray, Martin, WGraham
Cook, Fonua, Brimson, Matterson.

Means I'll be starting Watson.

Is it worth trading Matterson > Cleary and moving Watson into EMG??

how many trades do you have?

And how many of those will you be definitely spending on final team upgrades or R17 bye planning?

IMO, by this time of year, trades should be considered in terms of points gained rather than dollars.

Do you think you'll get more points by ditching Matterson (and potentially bringing him back in later) or do you think upgrading Murray in a couple of weeks will get you more points (or save a trade to replace someone who gets injured with an equivalent point scorer)

So have a guess at how many points Cleary will score over Watson for the next 4 weeks? on season averages Cleary will score an extra 30 points over the next month. on 3 game averages Watson will score an extra 9 points. I'm not sure either of those situations would be a definite trade.
But if you think Cleary will beat his season average of 50 , or Watson will be down on his season average of 39, then a trade becomes more tempting.

Also whether you want a fit Matterson in your final team. if you think you'll upgrade him anyway then definitely pull the trigger now.

wolfking wrote:


Captain Kapow could be a good shout again.

If it's going to be like it has the last few days (before today) the temp is going to be 5 degrees at the warmest lol hopefully it's not sleeting again cuz you're right he could tear the Warriors a new butthole

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Matterson > McInnes is pretty straight forward.

Just think if I'm getting rid of Watson aswell then it will need to be a half as Brinson is my only backup.
Can't afford SJ and Clearys game off in 17 concerns me for some reason.

Barring injury, the only half that plays 17 that I would expect to score more total points than Cleary, is SJ.

Maybe Widdop might go close if he has a good run of form and Cleary has a few off games.

Verbal Kint wrote:

My pick would be scooty Brimson

In a similar vein...

a) Play Olive and either Fonua or Brimson

or

b) Play Fonua and Brimson

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Anyone care to give a thought on my Matterson/Watson conundrum? Or does it pale in comparison to the trouble others are having?

I think I'm holding Matterson. I've boiled it down to a trade issue and my planned team looks better for holding in round 18.

Most would be trading I think and probably not bringing him back in due to low trades & other priorities. Could be a nice pod for the run home...

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Anyone care to give a thought on my Matterson/Watson conundrum? Or does it pale in comparison to the trouble others are having?

If I had Matterson, Cook and Watson I'd be trading the first two out to maximise my round score!

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Matterson > McInnes is pretty straight forward.

Just think if I'm getting rid of Watson aswell then it will need to be a half as Brinson is my only backup.
Can't afford SJ and Clearys game off in 17 concerns me for some reason.

12 games left in the season. If Cleary averages 55 thats 55x11 for him = 605 points
if you went to someone who plays 17 then they would need to average 605/12 =~50 to be on par. Anything above is where you start benefiting from the extra game.

Based on averages then SJ becomes the only option that stands out to me, but he comes with a number of additional risks in being (1) a Kiwi and (2) injury prone.

Put all that together and I would have thought the missing 17 thing is not a huge concern....

@Liverpool_Bulldog

My advice to you mate, and I hope this comes across as it is intended, is to start running some of the analysis that others are posting, yourself. Im not saying this to be a dick, rather saying this because all this type of analysis requires making assumptions, those assumptions determine the outcome. You are the one that wears the outcome, not us, so it really needs to be you who makes the assumptions.

IMO it would be better to post your analysis on your alternative options, rather than an open question because I think it will help you both decide whats best for you for any given problem, but also it will help you longer term both this season and seasons to come.

The alternative is that each decision you make is influenced by someone elses large arbitrary assumptions, which will differ widely from person to person, and you'll never really develop a strategy of your own.

Also, finally, when I do my own analysis, I do it in detail, and run several different permutations to come to a conclusion - i.e. quite thorough. However, when I post a response to someone question, trying to help, time constraints mean it is more of an idea than anything terribly thorough and really should just be a starting point, or an option for that person to consider.

rant over brother, good luck with whatever you choose to do!

Where are you placed now by the way?

Any other Cody Walker owners? Time to get rid of him? Hasn't been setting the world on fire recently, doesn't play R17 either.

Finch wrote:Any other Cody Walker owners? Time to get rid of him? Hasn't been setting the world on fire recently, doesn't play R17 either.

He could carve up v the Titans. There's some crazy numbers floating around for fantasy scores of playmakers v the Titans this year. I think at the very least he's a hold for this round and then worth flicking for a round 17 player later.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

He could carve up v the Titans. There's some crazy numbers floating around for fantasy scores of playmakers v the Titans this year. I think at the very least he's a hold for this round and then worth flicking for a round 17 player later.

BE of 57, a score he hasn't hit yet once this year though (54 twice). All his good scores came in the first quarter of the year, I guess before his mum died. It's like Souths are playing better so he isn't scoring much.

Can trade Matterson to anyone,who should I pick out of Taupau,SJ,Jurbo or McInnes? Cleary could be an option also,current halves are DCE and ARey

Finch wrote:

BE of 57, a score he hasn't hit yet once this year though (54 twice). All his good scores came in the first quarter of the year, I guess before his mum died. It's like Souths are playing better so he isn't scoring much.

If I had him, I'd be keeping him this week mate. Unless of course you are not hampered by any number of the other issues going around: Matterson, Cook, RTS, Martin Crichton etc. Most top teams will be really struggling to field 17 guns this week that will play their usual minutes. So Walker, for me, seems likely to be a lesser problem. Add to that he probably has a good chance of a decent score this week - then that would be my rationale for waiting a week at least to trade him out.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:@Liverpool_Bulldog

My advice to you mate, and I hope this comes across as it is intended, is to start running some of the analysis that others are posting, yourself. Im not saying this to be a dick, rather saying this because all this type of analysis requires making assumptions, those assumptions determine the outcome. You are the one that wears the outcome, not us, so it really needs to be you who makes the assumptions.

IMO it would be better to post your analysis on your alternative options, rather than an open question because I think it will help you both decide whats best for you for any given problem, but also it will help you longer term both this season and seasons to come.

The alternative is that each decision you make is influenced by someone elses large arbitrary assumptions, which will differ widely from person to person, and you'll never really develop a strategy of your own.

Also, finally, when I do my own analysis, I do it in detail, and run several different permutations to come to a conclusion - i.e. quite thorough. However, when I post a response to someone question, trying to help, time constraints mean it is more of an idea than anything terribly thorough and really should just be a starting point, or an option for that person to consider.

rant over brother, good luck with whatever you choose to do!

Where are you placed now by the way?

Haha I wouldn't consider that a rant.

Problem with my own analysis is I am shit with numbers and long term planning.
It's why I'm a graphic designer, I'm more visual. Someone asks me to make something so I make it. Done and dusted.

I will make an attempt at doing some analysis and see how it goes.

Sitting in 52nd and 370 odd points behind first so that feels to big of a gap to bridge.