2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 52

danseels1985 wrote:Can trade Matterson to anyone,who should I pick out of Taupau,SJ,Jurbo or McInnes? Cleary could be an option also,current halves are DCE and ARey

McInnes for me - keeper who plays 17. Origin doesn't seem like it will be an issue for him. Since round 7 he's been killing it too. Average of over 60.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

Haha I wouldn't consider that a rant.

Problem with my own analysis is I am shit with numbers and long term planning.
It's why I'm a graphic designer, I'm more visual. Someone asks me to make something so I make it. Done and dusted.

I will make an attempt at doing some analysis and see how it goes.

Sitting in 52nd and 370 odd points behind first so that feels to big of a gap to bridge.

Haha, all the more reason to start to learn though mate! Its all reasonably basic to be honest. Good thing about this forum is that you can post up your numbers and people will respond and help you out.

For example, re your Cleary dilemma. Choose two other options, lets say SJ and Milford. Make an assumption about what they will average moving forward. Compare that to Cleary, and then take into account round 17 and any other additional risks. I think you'll find that you can have a fair crack yourself. Post it up, get some feedback and next time you'll find it easier and easier.

Verbal Kint wrote:

I think I'm holding Matterson. I've boiled it down to a trade issue and my planned team looks better for holding in round 18.

Most would be trading I think and probably not bringing him back in due to low trades & other priorities. Could be a nice pod for the run home...

The people at the top aren't the ones who need the POD's mate.

Siebold is all about player welfare and health. I reckon Cook plays 10-15 mins end of each half, unless the score blows out in Rabbitohs favour and he won’t be used at all. Murray to play 55-60 with Angus playing 20-25.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:@Liverpool_Bulldog

My advice to you mate, and I hope this comes across as it is intended, is to start running some of the analysis that others are posting, yourself. Im not saying this to be a dick, rather saying this because all this type of analysis requires making assumptions, those assumptions determine the outcome. You are the one that wears the outcome, not us, so it really needs to be you who makes the assumptions.

IMO it would be better to post your analysis on your alternative options, rather than an open question because I think it will help you both decide whats best for you for any given problem, but also it will help you longer term both this season and seasons to come.

The alternative is that each decision you make is influenced by someone elses large arbitrary assumptions, which will differ widely from person to person, and you'll never really develop a strategy of your own.

Also, finally, when I do my own analysis, I do it in detail, and run several different permutations to come to a conclusion - i.e. quite thorough. However, when I post a response to someone question, trying to help, time constraints mean it is more of an idea than anything terribly thorough and really should just be a starting point, or an option for that person to consider.

rant over brother, good luck with whatever you choose to do!

Where are you placed now by the way?

This is bloody good advice. Write down your team now and the team that you want then you can work out exactly what you need to get there both in trades and cash. The time for randomly jumping on cows or mid rangers and hoping for some luck is early in the year, at this point you need a plan.

How good would it be if a Gutho, Walker or Rapana pulled finger and played to their fantasy potential.. That would sort 70% of my fantasy problems, which is half coverage and WFB scorers.

The other 30% is trades remaining

Krump wrote:
The people at the top aren't the ones who need the POD's mate.

I need a few pods vs zora Finishing 2nd/3rd is no different to finishing 10,000th

A this point I'm assuming he'll trade Matterson. Really dont know and taking a guess. I still might trade him anyway haha (smoke and mirrors)

Krump wrote:
This is bloody good advice. Write down your team now and the team that you want then you can work out exactly what you need to get there both in trades and cash. The time for randomly jumping on cows or mid rangers and hoping for some luck is early in the year, at this point you need a plan.

Yup, at this point in the season I have a spreadsheet with my current team in one column, and then my planned team, each round form here to round 19 (which is where I have my final team, pending injuries, sorted by). On the same spreadsheet I make sure that my trades are feasible given my CITB, projected values of players, and the number of trades I have left at each round.

It takes a bit of time, and you basically have to update the spreadsheet each week due to injuries & team lists etc, but it gives you some idea of where you are heading and how you are restricted by your trades and cash balance.

I typically start this spreadsheet by round 9 to plan for the byes.

Seems to do the trick.

Earlier in the season I had a spreadsheet which essentially told me how much money I needed to generate to make sure I could get a team of 17 guns, and then how much I needed to get and 18th and a 19th. It gave me a rough idea of how many trades it would cost me to get to this point and therefore how much money I needed to make from a cow, and also what kind of final 19 I could expect to have. It also gave me a bit of an idea about how relevant bye round strategies were going to be in this new format.

It all takes a decent amount of tie but I enjoy doing it and one of my day jobs is pseudo sports analytics anyway.

Good fun.

This week is a crazy one IMO. The right decision could generate 100 points or so I reckon. Bad decisions could see you fall way off the pace. Time will tell what those decisions are though huh!

Verbal Kint wrote:

I need a few pods vs zora Finishing 2nd/3rd is no different to finishing 10,000th

A this point I'm assuming he'll trade Matterson. Really dont know and taking a guess. I still might trade him anyway haha (smoke and mirrors)

You sure? I thought 1st = $10,000, 2nd = $2,000 and then prizes decreased through the top 10 or so.

But yeah, no one remembers 2nd mate. Id be going all in and I like the POD strategy!

Milchcow wrote:
Last reserve -

Cook, Doueihi, Tuala, Katoa?

#5 #6 don't have #8 Gosi #3 Matterson #4

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

Haha I wouldn't consider that a rant.

Problem with my own analysis is I am shit with numbers and long term planning.
It's why I'm a graphic designer, I'm more visual. Someone asks me to make something so I make it. Done and dusted.

I will make an attempt at doing some analysis and see how it goes.

Sitting in 52nd and 370 odd points behind first so that feels to big of a gap to bridge.

You can give it a good shake from there but every week that passes gives you less time to catch the leaders. I agree with Rippin and Krump, you need a plan. If it was me I'd be going hard and taking some calculated risks and the odd POD captain's choice. It's boom or bust though, you may crash and burn, but what's the point in staying around 50th? Take my punt on dumping Cook last week. It's looking like it might be a masterstroke possibly or could have been a disaster if I wasted trades only for him to bust out some 80's.

Will Doueihi score more than Cook? Very important I get bench order right

Loomer wrote:Will Doueihi score more than Cook? Very important I get bench order right

Impossible to tell mate.

Scores at C range from bugger all to 60+ and are generally depended on big attacking stats. So Doueihi could go anywhere in that range conceivably!

All we know about Cook is that he won't start. So he could get anything from 0 min through to 60 I guess. So he could conceivably score 0 to 60 too.

ON the balance though, my guess is that Doueihi likely scores in the 30-40 range from 80min with a bit of upside given its the Titans, and Cook scores 20-30 in 15-20 minutes or so.

Feels kinda weird but if I was in your boat Id be going Douihi over Cook.... Can you loop though? Most people surely have a chance at seeing one of the other first before making a call as to whether or not to bring another player in over the top.

Loomer wrote:Will Doueihi score more than Cook? Very important I get bench order right

No one really knows what Cook will do.

But Farah is a fine replacement, so my guess is that Cook won't play big minutes unless he is needed. And Doueihi is probably the safer bet

@Rippin + Tearin

Thanks for the advice. I'm gonna make a gut call and trade Walker out for a top secret player nobody has mentioned for a while...

Edit: Actually maybe not, I'm too scared. Might play it safe do Cotric instead

Finch wrote:@Rippin + Tearin

Thanks for the advice. I'm gonna make a gut call and trade Walker out for a top secret player nobody has mentioned for a while...

Edit: Actually maybe not, I'm too scared. Might play it safe do Cotric instead

Hoppa?

Edit, haha - I assume the thumb down is because I guessed correctly

Hey guys, where can I find the match stats for Origin I?

Trade ideas:

Matterson > McInnes (seems like a pretty straight forward one points and cash wise)

Watson > Cleary (can probably wait a week as there shouldnt be to much of a change cash wise, but could miss out on 30 points)

Murray > TTurbo (yet again wont be happening this week but could be done next week, unless something happens in that pack and Murray finds a way to start)

Team will look like this with 9 trades and no moolah.

Cook
Fifita, Arrow
Taumalolo, Fitzgibbon, Surgess
DCE, Cleary
Aitken, Tuala/Fonua
Ponga, Teddy, TTurbo

Smith, McInnes, Kikau, Martin
Walker, Graham, Brimson, Tuala/Fonua

Keepers have been bolded. 17 keepers by my count.

Feels underpowered but at least i have some trades in the bank which feels important to me

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Trade ideas:

Matterson > McInnes (seems like a pretty straight forward one points and cash wise)

Watson > Cleary (can probably wait a week as there shouldnt be to much of a change points wise)

Murray > TTurbo (yet again wont be happening this week but could be done next week, unless something happens in that pack and Murray finds a way to start)

Team will look like this with 9 trades and no moolah.

Cook
Fifita, Arrow
Taumalolo, Fitzgibbon, Surgess
DCE, Cleary
Aitken, Tuala/Fonua
Ponga, Teddy, TTurbo

Smith, McInnes, Kikau, Martin
Walker, Graham, Brimson, Tuala/Fonua

Keepers have been bolded. 17 keepers by my count.

Feels underpowered but at least i have some trades in the bank which feels important to me

Looking good!

I personally don't see Surgess as a keeper this season.
Martin is a keeper unless his role changes
Kikau is a borderline keeper, but is a hold for now