2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 65

Time to change that avatar @StormTrooper96

zuppy wrote:


Surgess v Arrow R&T?

Despite Arrow seemingly back to his pre-Origin fantasy form last week, I'd er on the side of caution and go Surgess. Looks like he's 80 min these days in a team fighting for top spot on the ladder. You'd assume all else equal he will continue to play big minutes right up till round 25.

Arrow on the other hand could easily get rested as the season nears its end.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Despite Arrow seemingly back to his pre-Origin fantasy form last week, I'd er on the side of caution and go Surgess. Looks like he's 80 min these days in a team fighting for  top spot on the ladder. You'd assume all else equal he will continue to play big minutes right up till round 25.

Arrow on the other hand could easily get rested as the season nears its end.

Same could be said for Surgess. As the weeks draw closer to the finals and Rabbitohs lock up top spot they could rest their superstars (ie Inglis, Surgess, Cook) to freshen them up for finals. Teams have done this in the past. I guess the only thing on your side there is that Rabbits have Roosters, Broncos, Raiders, Tigers so theyll want all hands on deck for those games.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Same could be said for Surgess. As the weeks draw closer to the finals and Rabbitohs lock up top spot they could rest their superstars (ie Inglis, Surgess, Cook) to freshen them up for finals. Teams have done this in the past. I guess the only thing on your side there is that Rabbits have Roosters, Broncos, Raiders, Tigers so theyll want all hands on deck for those games.

Anecdotally I'd say this happens a whole lot less than people worry about.

I'd love to see the Rabbits lock in 1st place and rest all their stars in round 25

Thinking of using my last trade to get rid of James.

James to Arrow. annoyingly im 14k short of Taupau.

Cons:
Its my last trade
Still have Alvaro injured on pine
Fainu currently in my 17
If fainu gets dropped, I need to play Rapana or Lewis on bench.

Pros:
No more James.

Tough call, any other insights?

Verbal Kint wrote:

I like it. This would probably be my move if I was in your shoes.

Macca would be very tempting as well - too many hookers though?

Yep have Cook, Smith & McInnes. I did consider Macca but I read either on wackos or nrl physio that basically his thumb is so bad he gets a injection before each game so there's the possibilty he could damage further & miss gametime although he's a machine & he'd play through the pain.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Same could be said for Surgess. As the weeks draw closer to the finals and Rabbitohs lock up top spot they could rest their superstars (ie Inglis, Surgess, Cook) to freshen them up for finals. Teams have done this in the past. I guess the only thing on your side there is that Rabbits have Roosters, Broncos, Raiders, Tigers so theyll want all hands on deck for those games.

I think the likelihood is far less! Rabbits will want top spot - how likely do you think they will be to lock it up prior to round 25? Storm and Roosters right on their tails...

Also, how about Gus Gould being captain F wit.

His comments about Griffen getting the sack showed his agenda. Gould wants to Coach Panthers and is looking for a puppet to do it through. Griffen didn't play ball and got sacked.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Im not a huge fan of Hess as a fantasy player, its mainly due to his inconsistent scoring - he often goes missing.

That being said, I guess it depends what you are after? Hess has the potential to pump out a string of high scores but there are more consistent scorers out there IMO.

You are top 10 now right? What is your goal? finish as high as possible? or cement the top 10? I think if its the former then Hess is a good option. If its the later I'd be looking at Surgess I think. He's been pretty consistent recently (I can't recall when their team lineup settled down) but I feel like its roughly coincided with his good scoring. He is also playing 80 min, or at least he has for 4 weeks.

Good luck mate - either way, I'd be ditching James!

Any analysis to back up the Hess inconsistency claim? 

From a quick comparison with Surgess, Hess has a higher PPM, average and ceiling. In terms of a floor, Hess has two scores in the 30s when playing 80 to Surgess's 1.

No Worries wrote:I'd love to see the Rabbits lock in 1st place and rest all their stars in round 25

You just know we'll need that win to get into the 8, happens every second year.

awanamafia wrote:


Any analysis to back up the Hess inconsistency claim? 

From a quick comparison with Surgess, Hess has a higher PPM, average and ceiling. In terms of a floor, Hess has two scores in the 30s when playing 80 to Surgess's 1.

You just pointed out the analysis yourself?

Panthers have offered a long term deal to Ivan Cleary.

awanamafia wrote:


Any analysis to back up the Hess inconsistency claim? 

From a quick comparison with Surgess, Hess has a higher PPM, average and ceiling. In terms of a floor, Hess has two scores in the 30s when playing 80 to Surgess's 1.

I agree mate. I just did a season comparison between Surgess & Hess & Hess seems the better pick

Tries = Hess 5 - Surgess 1
LB = Hess 9 - Surgess 2
LBA = Hess 1 - Surgess 5
TACKLES = Hess 626 (av 33/game) - Surgess 504 (av 32/game)
TB = Hess 56 (av 3/game) - Surgess 29 (av 2/game)
MT = Hess 30 (av 2/game) - Surgess 56 (av 4/game)
OF = Hess 8 - Surgess 33
ERROR = Hess 13 - Surgess 15
PC = Hess 17 - Surgess 22
Run Metres = Hess 1,858 (av 98/game = 10pts/game) - Surgess 2,375 (av 148/game = 15pts/game)
Season Negative points MT, ERROR, PC = Hess -60*2 = -120pts - Surgess -93*2 = -186pts

Conclusion - Firstly I should say that Hess has played 3 more games than Surgess. The only stat where Surgess has an advantage is offloads & run metres but you'd expect that with Surgess playing in the middle. What is surprising is average tackles per game are basically equal, in fact Hess averages 1 more tackle per game. Hess has better attacking stats as he has more space out wide. The telling factor though is the negative points stat especially missed tackles with Surgess committing an extra -66 points over the season.

Love it Stormtrooper

Using 50pts as a benchmark even counting the game where Surgess only scored 10 due to injury hes only gone under 7 times, Hess has gone under 50 11 times. If that's not inconsistent I'm a Frenchman.

NB: I still like the Hess pick.

Also this week it's the crunch local derby Cowboys v Broncos & I expect Hess to put in a big one.

White Lightning wrote:Also this week it's the crunch local derby Cowboys v Broncos & I expect Hess to put in a big one.

No matter what positions on the ladder these two teams are they ALWAYS show up for each other. Always a cracking game.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

No matter what positions on the ladder these two teams are they ALWAYS show up for each other. Always a cracking game.

Yep they're usually very open running games with plenty of points scored & I can see Hess grabbing a try & running over the top of Glenn. Also mate great avatar.

Thinking of maybe Hess in for Holland.. Might keep farah another week and put him in emg. Turbo currently running as 18th man for me.