2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 65

WT2K wrote:Thinking of maybe Hess in for Holland.. Might keep farah another week and put him in emg. Turbo currently running as 18th man for me.

Turbo at home against the Bulldogs I would want to play him.

I was going to ask which Turbo but I don't think it matters. Both would easily be in my best 17.

WT2K wrote:Thinking of maybe Hess in for Holland.. Might keep farah another week and put him in emg. Turbo currently running as 18th man for me.

I would love to upgrade Holland but he is my only CTR/WFB EMG.

awanamafia wrote:


Any analysis to back up the Hess inconsistency claim? 

From a quick comparison with Surgess, Hess has a higher PPM, average and ceiling. In terms of a floor, Hess has two scores in the 30s when playing 80 to Surgess's 1.

Nah none, although I owned him in a different league earlier this year and he had some pretty shitty scores to go along with his great ones. Also from memory while he had some cracker scores last year he went on to have a string of pretty low ones thereafter once he got the starting edge role gig. Tries have typically been what he needs to post big scores as opposed to Surgess who can post pretty decent scores without tries when he plays 80.

So why dont we put things to rest and have a look at the actual numbers:

Last year when Hess played 70+min he averaged 48.7 from 9 games with 4 scores at 40 or below and 3 scores 60+

This year playing 70 min + he has scored on average 55 from 13 games with 3 scores 40 or below and 7 scores 60+.

Surgess last year playing 70min+ averaged 53.2 from 15 games with 2 scores 40 or below and 5 scores 60+

Surgess this year playing 70min+ has average 49 from 11 games with 1 score 40 or below and 1 score 60+.

So I think that shows what I am talking about - Hess higher ceiling, lower floor.

Hence the risk reward. Evidence indicates the safer option is Surgess despite his average being a little lower. I would also argue that Surgess 5 game average of 52.6 is probably more reflective of where he is at currently.

TLDR - Variance of Hess' (70min+) scores over the last 2 years is greater than Surgess = Hess has less consistent scoring

White Lightning wrote:

Turbo at home against the Bulldogs I would want to play him.

Playing him this week instead of farah.

WT2K wrote:
Playing him this week instead of farah.

I think I will sit out Farah this week, play Arrow and 3 halves in SJ, Cleary and ARey.

White Lightning wrote:

I agree mate. I just did a season comparison between Surgess & Hess & Hess seems the better pick

Tries = Hess 5 - Surgess 1
LB = Hess 9 - Surgess 2
LBA = Hess 1 - Surgess 5
TACKLES = Hess 626 (av 33/game) - Surgess 504 (av 32/game)
TB = Hess 56 (av 3/game) - Surgess 29 (av 2/game)
MT = Hess 30 (av 2/game) - Surgess 56 (av 4/game)
OF = Hess 8 - Surgess 33
ERROR = Hess 13 - Surgess 15
PC = Hess 17 - Surgess 22
Run Metres = Hess 1,858 (av 98/game = 10pts/game) - Surgess 2,375 (av 148/game = 15pts/game)
Season Negative points MT, ERROR, PC = Hess -60*2 = -120pts - Surgess -93*2 = -186pts

Conclusion - Firstly I should say that Hess has played 3 more games than Surgess. The only stat where Surgess has an advantage is offloads & run metres but you'd expect that with Surgess playing in the middle. What is surprising is average tackles per game are basically equal, in fact Hess averages 1 more tackle per game. Hess has better attacking stats as he has more space out wide. The telling factor though is the negative points stat especially missed tackles with Surgess committing an extra -66 points over the season.

Im not quite following the rationale for your evaluation of the two players to be honest. You are basically saying Hess has a higher average than Surgess which is true. If it were a season long decision, you'd probably go Hess. However we are talking 4 games remaining so consistency of scoring should really come into consideration.

I've demonstrated in a rough kind of way that Hess' scoring is less consistent than Surgess - therefore the chance of him stringing a few shitty scores together would appear higher than it is for Surgess. The opposite is also true for high scores of course. Hence it's a risk reward thing and therefore your choice, IMO, should come down to what you are wanting to achieve from here: Going for gold? or cementing your ranking....

Thats the way I would look at it to be honest. GL either way though!

Hi all, would love advice on team selection.

I've lost about 700 spots in the last 2 weeks, down to 1087th this week and trying to claw back ground. 1 trade left that I'm holding for injuries, so no trades this week.

My team is:

Cook (C)
Kikau, Taupau
RMartin, Taumalolo, Jurbo
Cleary, ARey
Marsters, Aitken
Ponga, Turbo, Hayne

Smith, Kaufusi, SJ, RTS

Widdop, Brimson, Ese'ese, Lewis

I do plan on playing Smith and Kaufusi (I bought him since he's a good hole runner and can score a meat pie), but not 100% on which three I should play, out of RTS, SJ, Ese'ese, Hayne, Aitken or even Brimson.


Hayne and Aitken are marking up on each other, and I'm 99% sure I'll play Hayne, considering how leaky the Dragons' right edge defence is. Not sure on Aitken though, but he scored pretty well against Parra back in round 16.


RTS and SJ should do pretty well against the Knights but I don't know whether Ese'ese is a better pick over one of them, and if so, which one?

Brimson is a left field option, though I don't think the Titans will do very well against Penrith.

Bethany_B wrote:Hi all, would love advice on team selection.

I've lost about 700 spots in the last 2 weeks, down to 1087th this week and trying to claw back ground. 1 trade left that I'm holding for injuries, so no trades this week.

My team is:

Cook (C)
Kikau, Taupau
RMartin, Taumalolo, Jurbo
Cleary, ARey
Marsters, Aitken
Ponga, Turbo, Hayne

Smith, Kaufusi, SJ, RTS

Widdop, Brimson, Ese'ese, Lewis

I do plan on playing Smith and Kaufusi (I bought him since he's a good hole runner and can score a meat pie), but not 100% on which three I should play, out of RTS, SJ, Ese'ese, Hayne, Aitken or even Brimson.


Hayne and Aitken are marking up on each other, and I'm 99% sure I'll play Hayne, considering how leaky the Dragons' right edge defence is. Not sure on Aitken though, but he scored pretty well against Parra back in round 16.


RTS and SJ should do pretty well against the Knights but I don't know whether Ese'ese is a better pick over one of them, and if so, which one?

Brimson is a left field option, though I don't think the Titans will do very well against Penrith.

IMO your weak points are Kikau, Hayne, and Kaufusi. Not sure of your $ situation or your trades but I'd be looking at upgrades there. McInnes is a solid option. Hess/Surgess would be preferable over Kikau/Kaufusi and Teddy is a gun who should easily outscore Hayne.

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If Fainu is out due to court case I think I am set on trading in Rapana. 
Gives me
Mitchell Ramien
Ponga Turbo Rapana
With Cotric as cover in emg

My bench would then be
CS9 McInnis Martin Arrow
Kikau Cotric Clifford NPR

2 trades left

Krump wrote:I was going to ask which Turbo but I don't think it matters. Both would easily be in my best 17.

Tom = Turbo
Jake = Jurbo

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

IMO your weak points are Kikau, Hayne, and Kaufusi. Not sure of your $ situation or your trades but I'd be looking at upgrades there. McInnes is a solid option. Hess/Surgess would be preferable over Kikau/Kaufusi and Teddy is a gun who should easily outscore Hayne.

I know that, but the problem is that I only have 16k ITB and can't afford any of those upgrades except Surgess and Hess, and for those, I wouldn't use my last trade on that. I have enough consistent forwards, I picked Kaufusi as a POD, since I'm trying to make up ground. Also Kikau has a great draw and should do some damage against the Titans, same with Hayne and that Dragons right edge defence. If I could afford the trade, I would sell Widdop for Tedesco or McInnes but they're well out of my price range. My only way to get Teddy is if Brimson goes nuts in the next week or two and Teddy has a couple quiet weeks.

White Lightning wrote:

Tom = Turbo
Jake = Jurbo

Cheers mate. The only place I don't call them both Turbo is here.

White Lightning wrote:

Tom = Turbo
Jake = Jurbo

Wasn't there some outrage at the start of the season around this behaviour. I seem, to remember taking issue with Dook, Piku, Konga etc.

Bethany_B wrote:


I know that, but the problem is that I only have 16k ITB and can't afford any of those upgrades except Surgess and Hess, and for those, I wouldn't use my last trade on that. I have enough consistent forwards, I picked Kaufusi as a POD, since I'm trying to make up ground. Also Kikau has a great draw and should do some damage against the Titans, same with Hayne and that Dragons right edge defence. If I could afford the trade, I would sell Widdop for Tedesco or McInnes but they're well out of my price range. My only way to get Teddy is if Brimson goes nuts in the next week or two and Teddy has a couple quiet weeks.

My bad, didnt read your post in full.

Yeah, 1 trade with that amount of money, I guess you have to hold it in case of injury.

I'd play both SJ and RTS and hope they go nuts at home v the Knights - good chance I think.

I'd also play Aitken and I would drop Hayne out of the 17 and play Ese'ese.

The rest of the team I'd keep as is.

Hi lads, is there anything I need to do here?  Am 250 points ahead in my work league and really want to hang on, 6 point of difference players but his different players put 70 on mine last week.  Plus the extra 47 from Cook over Smith didn't help and has me a bit nervous;

Cook
Fifita Taupau
Tolo Crichton JTurbo
Cleary ARey
Aitken Marsters
Ponga Teddy Mitchell

Smith Martin Arrow SJ

Farah Holland Clifford Reddot

2 trades and 100K.  Thinking of benching Farah and playing the three halves, or I could trade Farah to McInnes who my opponent has.  I could really bench any of those halves.  Cleary who knows how he will perform, ARey could struggle against the Chooks.  SJ should go good at home and is one player I could play to cancel out.  I'm thinking though ARey and Farah could struggle to keep their points up too for the next four weeks, but Reynolds has been great, I just get scared every week watching him.  Not sure if it's worth using a crucial trade on my team as it stands or hold a week and see if the 250 gets eaten into again over the weekend.

Cheers!

I don't why their nicknames changed but I was use to T-Trbo & J-Trbo which I thought was perfect & now everyone says Turbo & Jurbo on facebook. Those supercoaches did it.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

My bad, didnt read your post in full.

Yeah, 1 trade with that amount of money, I guess you have to hold it in case of injury.

I'd play both SJ and RTS and hope they go nuts at home v the Knights - good chance I think.

I'd also play Aitken and I would drop Hayne out of the 17 and play Ese'ese.

The rest of the team I'd keep as is.

There's that but Hayne will be running at the Dragons right edge defence which is really leaky. Hayne seems to be better than Aitken recently, but I think Aitken could also go big if Hayne goes back to being lazy

wolfking wrote:Hi lads, is there anything I need to do here?  Am 250 points ahead in my work league and really want to hang on, 6 point of difference players but his different players put 70 on mine last week.  Plus the extra 47 from Cook over Smith didn't help and has me a bit nervous;

Cook
Fifita Taupau
Tolo Crichton JTurbo
Cleary ARey
Aitken Marsters
Ponga Teddy Mitchell

Smith Martin Arrow SJ

Farah Holland Clifford Reddot

2 trades and 100K.  Thinking of benching Farah and playing the three halves, or I could trade Farah to McInnes who my opponent has.  I could really bench any of those halves.  Cleary who knows how he will perform, ARey could struggle against the Chooks.  SJ should go good at home and is one player I could play to cancel out.  I'm thinking though ARey and Farah could struggle to keep their points up too for the next four weeks, but Reynolds has been great, I just get scared every week watching him.  Not sure if it's worth using a crucial trade on my team as it stands or hold a week and see if the 250 gets eaten into again over the weekend.

Cheers!

Who's the red dot mate?