Rate My Team 2019

A thread to post your early drafts of your NRL FANTASY Teams

For Pookus.  

Early bash

McCullough
Tolman, IPapalii
Arrow, Gillet, Murray
Morgan, Salmon
Bird, Capewell
Tedesco, Edwards, Hughes

Sorenson, Stimson, DFifita, Moga/Lawrie

Moga/Lawrie
Lomax
Abbey
Haas

Welshy wrote:Early bash

McCullough
Tolman, IPapalii
Arrow, Gillet, Murray
Morgan, Salmon
Bird, Capewell
Tedesco, Edwards, Hughes

Sorenson, Stimson, DFifita, Moga/Lawrie

Moga/Lawrie
Lomax
Abbey
Haas

Papalii only 2rf

Yeah Welshy, Isaiah Papalii has been changed to only 2RF instead of being a DPP still. (I dont think MTB has updated the player movements yet)

Andrew McCullough is getting a lot of love around here on the premise he will play 80 minutes. Last year there were only 4 games where he played less than 70 minutes. It is his own work effort that holds him back. Now this may pick up again with McGuire being shipped off, but in 2017 he had 9 games with 50+ tackles, in 2018 he had 3 games with 50+ tackles and his average dropped by 10 points. I have been all aboard the McCullough train, and he certainly can be a top tier hooker. But he fluctuates so much with his scores. In fact between 2014/2015 there was only a point average difference. Since then the jump has been 10 points either up or down. He does have Seibold as his coach who was a big factor in Cook having a break out year, but if you take McCullough you aren't hoping he gets more minutes. You hope he gets more involved in defence and gets to play some attacking football.

Tolman is interesting. He is finally going to be the big man there, and not sitting behind Woods/Graham and will be able to get decent minutes. Last year in the four games that he got 80 minutes he averaged 63.75 points a game. Which is amazing, the problem is there is steady regression in his stats in 2014 his PPM was 0.90ppm, 2015 - 0.83ppms, 2016 - 0.80, 2017 - 0.77, 2018 - 0.73. So it isn't drastic regression, but he regressed last year even though he ended up playing on average 7 minutes less. Which you usually see PPM drop when people increase their playing time, not decrease it. Realistically he will be around the 0.70ppm - 0.75ppm. So then it comes down to his minutes. Surely he wont be an out and out 80 minute player, and the most he has averaged in a season recently is 62 minutes. He is priced around the 40 point range. So for him to see the uptick you would want (Which is usually about a 10 point bump) he would need to be getting close to 70 minutes with a ppm of 0.75 which as I showed is on the higher end of things. The last time he averaged more than 50 points a game was back in 2015. With that said, if you think him being the main Prop will give him those minutes it is worth a punt. Just the Bulldogs have J. Jackson, R. Martin, R. Faitala-Mariner who all averaged 70 minutes in the 2RF last season. Meaning that the majority of their rotation will most likely be through the forwards.

Papalii is still only averaging about 47 points which is still almost 10 points higher than what he is priced at, I just think you are paying for a mid-range guy, who can potentially turn into a higher range mid-tier guy. Unless you expect a big jump performance wise (As he has shown what he can do in 80 minutes) I am not saying the potential isn't there but he had 3 games over 60 points and 3 games below 40 points from his 10 games were he played 80 minutes.

Jai Arrow - Love him, if he can stay fit for even the first half of the season. Then he has potential to be the highest scoring player in that period. Priced a decent step below the other out and out guns. He is great value.

Matt Gillett - I know he is discounted because he missed most of last season, but that was a serious injury that had the retirement rumours floating. You think if anything happens to him, they play it safe. My other issue is he is a very hot cold player. He definitely can score 60+ points in a game, but then he has those periods where he plays 80 minutes and comes out with a 20 point game. There is also the injury cloud. He could come back, and the time off has him playing better than ever, or looking like a shadow of his former self.

Cameron Murray - If he starts and can get at least 60 minutes he will be solid and should average comfortably in that 50+ range and being priced at 40 points is a bonus.

Morgan - This sounds like it will be harsh on Gillett, because Morgan is another guy who can bust out a massive score and then have a poor one the week after. He also is coming back from two surgeries that ruled him out after just 11 rounds last season. He now steps into be the primary play maker and the dominant kicker. Which is enough of an upside that it will hopefully raise his floor up to GUN level.

Salmon - Who? No everyone will have him so no harm in starting him.

Jack Bird - As a Broncos supporter I don't like the fact I am picking him up, but he has such a horrid start to last year, and the injury discount. Albeit a small one, means he will certainly make some cash. There is the risk he averages 25-30 points which perhaps means he isn't a guy you want in your starting side.

Kurt Capewell - He needs to lock down an 80 minute role. He has very uninspiring scores as a 2RF. Averaging 42.4 points when playing 80 minutes (He played 5 times) which is still great for a center. But he is only priced at 30 points so if you think he can manage and maintain a 40 point average, without necessarily getting 80 minutes. (They have Sorensen, Bukuya, Gallen all to fit into 3 positions.) Then he makes enough cash and scores decent enough as a CTR to take a punt on.

I am heading out, I will review the rest later.

Pretty similar to Welshy, but a bit more cow/gun heavy (i.e. the bench is a disgrace) 480k left

Macca
R.Sutton JArrow
Murray I.Papa Matterson
Cleary Morgan
J.Bateman Tuala
J.Hughes D.Edwards Moylan

TMM Haas Salmon Moga
Lomax J.Bird CHT Abbey

-------------------------------------------------------

Cleary finished the season on fire, and feels 100k underpriced
R.Sutton is a grub, and Canberra needs that sort of niggle - should get good minutes
Arrow is a gamble, but I reckon a worthwhile one

Haas is probably a mistake - maybe Guler / Napa / Fotuaika instead.
Tuala - I just liked the look of him. If the Cows mojo returns he could cash in
Moylan is a shot at a POD. Scores better at FB than half, and should benefit from Johnson.
J.Hughes I'm iffy on, but again he looks like a genuine footballer.
If JdB is out then Leilua should come in for someone.

Re: the Andrew McCullough love. From my perspective some of this is due to the risks around Cook and Smith plus the Seibold impact. My gut formula is:

R(Co^2k + Sm1th) + C = Mac^2a

Oh I don't disagree there is reason for McCullough, I have him pencilled in myself because the cost of Cook & Smith and the risk associated with each of them. I had Smith last year and it was an annoying performance at times and then suddenly he clicked into gear. There aren't many options imo, McCullough is one of the best. Hodgson, & McInnes have to be other options, but beyond that maybe Segeyaro if he gets picked up somewhere?

People who do an ACL seem to do better at fantasy once they've got a season back under their belt. I don't have any stats on that, just my gut feel there. I think McCullough will bounce back as a result.

Mulvy wrote:

Papalii only 2rf

simple swap with Arrow mate or has Arrow lost his DPP also? I like I Papalii to nail down an 80 minute job full time and he should provide value there, kid is a workhorse

Hodgson, McCullough and Mansour are on my list.

Welshy wrote:

simple swap with Arrow mate or has Arrow lost his DPP also? I like I Papalii to nail down an 80 minute job full time and he should provide value there, kid is a workhorse

NRL are drip feeding the players/prices/positions one team per day so we don't know yet. We only know the prices in advance because Milchy hacked the system!

Random wrote:Yeah Welshy, Isaiah Papalii has been changed to only 2RF instead of being a DPP still. (I dont think MTB has updated the player movements yet)

Andrew McCullough is getting a lot of love around here on the premise he will play 80 minutes. Last year there were only 4 games where he played less than 70 minutes.  It is his own work effort that holds him back. Now this may pick up again with McGuire being shipped off, but in 2017 he had 9 games with 50+ tackles, in 2018 he had 3 games with 50+ tackles and his average dropped by 10 points. I have been all aboard the McCullough train, and he certainly can be a top tier hooker. But he fluctuates so much with his scores. In fact between 2014/2015 there was only a point average difference. Since then the jump has been 10 points either up or down. He does have Seibold as his coach who was  a big factor in Cook having a break out year, but if you take McCullough you aren't hoping he gets more minutes. You hope he gets more involved in defence and gets to play some attacking football.

Tolman is interesting. He is finally going to be the big man there, and not sitting behind Woods/Graham and will be able to get decent minutes. Last year in the four games that he got 80 minutes he averaged 63.75 points a game. Which is amazing, the problem is there is steady regression in his stats in 2014 his PPM was 0.90ppm, 2015 - 0.83ppms, 2016 - 0.80, 2017 - 0.77, 2018 - 0.73. So it isn't drastic regression, but he regressed last year even though he ended up playing on average 7 minutes less. Which you usually see PPM drop when people increase their playing time, not decrease it. Realistically he will be around the 0.70ppm - 0.75ppm. So then it comes down to his minutes. Surely he wont be an out and out 80 minute player, and the most he has averaged in a season recently is 62 minutes. He is priced around the 40 point range. So for him to see the uptick you would want (Which is usually about a 10 point bump) he would need to be getting close to 70 minutes with a ppm of 0.75 which as I showed is on the higher end of things. The last time he averaged more than 50 points a game was back in 2015. With that said, if you think him being the main Prop will give him those minutes it is worth a punt. Just the Bulldogs have J. Jackson, R. Martin, R. Faitala-Mariner who all averaged 70 minutes in the 2RF last season. Meaning that the majority of their rotation will most likely be through the forwards.

Papalii is still only averaging about 47 points which is still almost 10 points higher than what he is priced at, I just think you are paying for a mid-range guy, who can potentially turn into a higher range mid-tier guy. Unless you expect a big jump performance wise (As he has shown what he can do in 80 minutes) I am not saying the potential isn't there but he had 3 games over 60 points and 3 games below 40 points from his 10 games were he played 80 minutes.

Jai Arrow - Love him, if he can stay fit for even the first half of the season. Then he has potential to be the highest scoring player in that period. Priced a decent step below the other out and out guns. He is great value.

Matt Gillett -  I know he is discounted because he missed most of last season, but that was a serious injury that had the retirement rumours floating. You think if anything happens to him, they play it safe. My other issue is he is a very hot cold player. He definitely can score 60+ points in a game, but then he has those periods where he plays 80 minutes and comes out with a 20 point game. There is also the injury cloud. He could come back, and the time off has him playing better than ever, or looking like a shadow of his former self.

Cameron Murray - If he starts and can get at least 60 minutes he will be solid and should average comfortably in that 50+ range and being priced at 40 points is a bonus.

Morgan - This sounds like it will be harsh on Gillett, because Morgan is another guy who can bust out a massive score and then have a poor one the week after. He also is coming back from two surgeries that ruled him out after just 11 rounds last season. He now steps into be the primary play maker and the dominant kicker. Which is enough of an upside that it will hopefully raise his floor up to GUN level.

Salmon - Who? No everyone will have him so no harm in starting him.

Jack Bird - As a Broncos supporter I don't like the fact I am picking him up, but he has such a horrid start to last year, and the injury discount. Albeit a small one, means he will certainly make some cash. There is the risk he averages 25-30 points which perhaps means he isn't a guy you want in your starting side.

Kurt Capewell - He needs to lock down an 80 minute role. He has very uninspiring scores as a 2RF. Averaging 42.4 points when playing 80 minutes (He played 5 times) which is still great for a center. But he is only priced at 30 points so if you think he can manage and maintain a 40 point average, without necessarily getting 80 minutes. (They have Sorensen, Bukuya, Gallen all to fit into 3 positions.) Then he makes enough cash and scores decent enough as a CTR to take a punt on.

I am heading out, I will review the rest later.

Excellent run down mate and much appreciated. Will give a quick rundown of why they are in my early team thoughts in a bit

Matt Gillett - 5 year average minus injury affected last year is 48. Priced at 37/38 All i need to see is him starting on that edge R1 and he is locked in

Tolman - See above minus injury, priced around same and has previous of going around 47 (prev 5 year avg)

Bird - cheap as fuck as has decent fantasy pedigree previously, cheap enough to not make him a huge gamble, plenty of upside

Morgan - If paired with TMM he will go well, has shown previously with no JT and dominant playmaker he is close to gun level. Priced at low 30s, he wont go lower than that.

Arrow - lowest priced of the elite GUNs, can go close to 55-58 but as noted injuries a worry.

IPap - Priced at 38, goes around 45 in 80 minutes role. Value if he nails it down

Capewell - if available at CTR, priced at 30, goes over 40. Doi

McCullough - priced at 47/48 has hit 55+ in 3 out of last 6 seasons. Cheap hit and hope alt to CS9 and Cook

Welshy wrote:Matt Gillett - 5 year average minus injury affected last year is 48. Priced at 37/38 All i need to see is him starting on that edge R1 and he is locked in

Tolman - See above minus injury, priced around same and has previous of going around 47 (prev 5 year avg)

Bird - cheap as fuck as has decent fantasy pedigree previously, cheap enough to not make him a huge gamble, plenty of upside

Morgan - If paired with TMM he will go well, has shown previously with no JT and dominant playmaker he is close to gun level. Priced at low 30s, he wont go lower than that.

Arrow - lowest priced of the elite GUNs, can go close to 55-58 but as noted injuries a worry.

IPap - Priced at 38, goes around 45 in 80 minutes role. Value if he nails it down

Capewell - if available at CTR, priced at 30, goes over 40. Doi

McCullough - priced at 47/48 has hit 55+ in 3 out of last 6 seasons. Cheap hit and hope alt to CS9 and Cook

Out of those I know the least about and least confidence in Papalii. Do you have anything you can add? I didn't take much notice when I watched Warriors games. Is he good to watch? I just have an unfounded midranger feel about it but it could totally be ignorance.

I wonder who will be goal kicking for the cows?

Mighty Fishes wrote:I wonder who will be goal kicking for the cows?

Jake Clifford hopefully.

Feldt I reckon now ive actually thought about it

Youre quick on the buzzer there Mulvy

Mighty Fishes wrote:Youre quick on the buzzer there Mulvy

Fair dinkum though I read an article somewhere saying while Kyle Feldt is an obvious possibility to kick goals, X appears to be a more likely choice. I can't remember but I think X was Jake Clifford. He's better than TMM too. And bigger. Less experienced, so in Paul Green I trust.