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    NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 10

    RandomSil
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    Post by RandomSil Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:55 pm

    StormTrooper96 wrote:Don't remember who it was that said they were on night shift on going to rate some teams in their spare team. This is my latest team before TLT and would love ya to dig it apart. !Latest post!

    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t831-rate-my-team-stormtrooper#260686

    I'll get to it today or tonight.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:06 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    I had him as my captain in rounds 4 and 5. Radley stole every single minute from him and I was throwing things at the tv

    They were managing Friend for a sternum injury. Sucked for you I'm sure, but it doesn't make him a bad pick this year.
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:12 pm

    Rapture_NRL wrote:

    Too much bank left bro. That's missed points. That team probably scores 750 if things go well  and I've put question marks over the ones who could either go as you expect them or spud out.

    I'd recommend:
    - Not Hodgson (but I do feel he has a chance to go well this year)
    - Upgrade Moylan (I was initially interested but nah)
    - Turn Kahu into Holland or Hampton
    - Turn BMoz into Hughes or Edwards
    - Reconsider Gavet (lots of forwards to steal his minutes)

    Buuuuut if your really believe in your picks, go with them.

    Gavet and BMoz are the ones that I would potentially leave in there.
    Hodgson, Moylan and Kahu are pretty much off the radar completely for me.

    I am considering Gavet as a bit of a POD because he's barely mentioned around here and it looks like he'll start and hopefully that means he gets the minutes. I see him as the "fit" and "experienced" player that replaces Lillyman and is a much better stage of his career than when Bull was at the Knights.

    BMoz could and should pick up where Ferguson left off at the Roosters. Priced any lower and he'd be a no-brainer.
    Good value, I think but I can't find a slot for him in my team with other value picks getting in ahead of him
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    Post by Guest Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:23 pm

    Rapture_NRL wrote:

    One of his best seasons was with Townsend in the halves

    Townsend took a back seat then. He’s a premiership winning half now. Big difference. Good luck.
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:26 pm

    Random wrote:

    I'll get to it today or tonight.

    Sling us a link to yours mate and ill let the Maubbster give it a run down.
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:32 pm

    Is L Leilua still a consideration?? Or nope
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    Post by Big Kev Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:39 pm

    rhinoceroo wrote:
    I'm  going to make 2i 2Kamica for Tui Kamikamica a thing if it kills me.

    I was thinking more 'kami kami kami kami kami kamica'...or just 'Boy George'?
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    Post by mattnz Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:39 pm

    Pookus McFly wrote:

    Yeah I imagine everyone would be planning will be to upgrade to Cook and Smith, so my thoughts are that it doesn't really matter who you have in that position as long as they are increasing in value and bridging that gap. Granted Mahoney will require a larger sum of money to upgrade than a McCullough pick (in the event that Macca isn't a keeper and requires upgrading, that is). But Mahoney still has plenty of dollar value for wiggle room if things don't pan out, whereas a cheaper hooker like Katoa might worry me for those reasons. And most importantly, the new format of NRLF really makes your team more fool-proof to these problems, in that I can really trade any player into a premium hooker (instead of needing to trade hooker>hooker pre-2018) to get myself out of trouble. Lama is only 100k away from Macca so if he isn't getting the minutes and Macca is killing it, I can always correct that mistake early (though I have a few possibilities up my sleeve). You mentioned Friend earlier, and I too am interested, but thinking I will take a slight warchest (150-200k) into round 1 and play Macca and Friend off against each other to find the best pick between them if they really are looking to be irresistible. Realistically I think they are only slightly undervalued.

    Question to the forum, I mentioned my cash in the bank. I have never done this in my numerous years of playing fantasy sports, but it feels right this season. With all the mid-rangers looking undervalued I have a number in my team and am currently running with 192k ITB to try and dig myself out of any traps. Who else is going into R1 cashed up, and how big is your warchest?

    I ideally want $100-200k cash. You may miss 5-10 points round 1, but gives you the flexibility to get the guys you really want in round 2, having seen the action of round 1. That could easily buy you 5-10 points per round for the next 10 rounds, much higher upside than the points potentially lost in round 1.
    Rapture_NRL
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    Post by Rapture_NRL Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:42 pm

    Okay, another discussion starter with Fullbacks

    Hughes $502k
    - at FB last year, averaged 38.7, but that included a 76... without his average was 31.2
    - Low Average: 31.2 = Cash -$40k
    - Optimistic Average: 42 = Cash +$121k

    Wighton $477k
    - Moving to 5/8, more tackles (good tackler), some kick metres, more ball in hand for TAs, LBAs, and more taking on the line (TBs)
    - No kick return metres
    - Low Average: 30 = -$30k
    - Optimistic Average: 42 (37-48 range) = +$148k (80-100 run metres, 16-20 tackles, 1-3 TBs, 1 TA/LBA, 100-150 kick metres)

    Gutherson $477k
    - Very poor scores last season coming back from an ACL
    - Second year back and apparently that's when players return to form
    - Averaged above 40 prior to injury
    - Will be relied upon this year
    - Risk of losing points to Fergo
    - Averaged 33.9 at FB
    - Low Average: 34 = Cash +$30k
    - Optimistic Average: 42 = Cash +$148k
    Rapture_NRL
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    Post by Rapture_NRL Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:45 pm

    filthridden wrote:

    Gavet and BMoz are the ones that I would potentially leave in there.
    Hodgson, Moylan and Kahu are pretty much off the radar completely for me.

    I am considering Gavet as a bit of a POD because he's barely mentioned around here and it looks like he'll start and hopefully that means he gets the minutes. I see him as the "fit" and "experienced" player that replaces Lillyman and is a much better stage of his career than when Bull was at the Knights.

    BMoz could and should pick up where Ferguson left off at the Roosters. Priced any lower and he'd be a no-brainer.
    Good value, I think but I can't find a slot for him in my team with other value picks getting in ahead of him

    What do you see in Gavet? He is in a stacked pack who will all share minutes. His game isn't that great either. Just my opinion though
    standard-issue
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    Post by standard-issue Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:46 pm

    PhilGouldsChins wrote:
    No Worries wrote:We had a previous NRL Fantasy winner lurking this morning I see. Wonder if he will grace us with some sweeet chin insight ???

    Happy NY fellas! Good to see the fanatics fam growing, with a few of the old heads keeping things afloat. Time poor over the last couple of seasons, so waiting for TLT before ramping things up & will hopefully be more involved in the forum this year.
    Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2015 NRL Fantasy Champion  cheer
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    Post by mattnz Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:47 pm

    Milikache wrote:Im going with this gut feel team for now:

    Hodgson
    Fifita, LAM
    Matterson, Lane, Murray
    Moylan, Brown
    Kahu, Nikora
    RTS, CNK, Morris

    Mahoney, Gavet, Napa, Garner
    Sele, Keighran, Lomax, Xerri

    547K left in the bank (Probably will burn 6 trades first 4 rounds)
    What's your view on Xerri's job security?

    If Xerri is named round 1, would expect him to shine and keep his spot all season. He is the one player I am seriously considering having in my team to start the season, even if not named, to use as a loop. Expect he would get his shot in the first few rounds and everyone will waste a trade getting him in.
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    Post by Rapture_NRL Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:48 pm

    Rabbit wrote:

    Townsend took a back seat then. He’s a premiership winning half now. Big difference. Good luck.

    Fair point, but SJ still scored well with Blake Green who took control of most of the games. SJ would've craked 400 km if he played the 80. Don't really see Townsend dampening his scores.
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    Post by mattnz Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:52 pm

    Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Is L Leilua still a consideration?? Or nope

    Nope. Host has the nod. If he gets a starting spot at some point in the season though, will jump on him, may be even cheaper by then.
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    Post by Guest Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:52 pm

    Judge will rule on Jack De Belin on Thursday the day the nrl season kicks off.. if the nrl have not enacted their no fault rule by them ..De Belin will play #extraordinary @9NewsSyd

    Judge says it’s damaging for Jack De Belin to say “he has been stood down when he is not “  the rule has not yet been enacted @9NewsSyd  that means if there was a game tomorrow he could play
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    Post by Pookus McFly Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:55 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    If Xerri is named round 1, would expect him to shine and keep his spot all season. He is the one player I am seriously considering having in my team to start the season, even if not named, to use as a loop. Expect he would get his shot in the first few rounds and everyone will waste a trade getting him in.

    The only thing that stays me from doing things like this is that you can never predict the timing of such things. If he came in round 2 or 3, as you said- you would be in a more advantageous position already owning him. But if it takes 5 rounds for him to make an appearance, he might be far more useful as a cashout for a peaking crop of mid-range cows when there is not anybody else as juicy available. Then the advantage goes to those without him.
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    Post by Guest Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:56 pm

    Trials shouldn’t be looked at as a true indication of what’s coming up. There is no way Townsend doesn’t share both the kicking and the playmaking duties with SJ. You don’t go from being a premiership winning, kicking, playmaker, to spectator. Green did stuff all. I’m not touching SJ.
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    Post by Guest Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:06 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    Nope. Host has the nod. If he gets a starting spot at some point in the season though, will jump on him, may be even cheaper by then.

    Are you basing everything on the NRL.com article? If so, I wouldn’t. They know as much as you and me. I doubt Host gets more than 40 minutes....if he gets in the 17 at all.
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:11 pm

    WT2K wrote:Judge will rule on Jack De Belin on Thursday the day the nrl season kicks off.. if the nrl have not enacted their no fault rule by them ..De Belin will play #extraordinary @9NewsSyd

    Judge says it’s damaging for Jack De Belin to say “he has been stood down when he is not “  the rule has not yet been enacted @9NewsSyd  that means if there was a game tomorrow he could play

    Bit of theatrics, really. I find it annoying. I am really sick of this being news again, day after day.

    But it means the Dragons could name JDB on Tuesday... if they are willing to stand behind him. Didn't the Dragons decide not to support him in federal court? Or was that just rumours.
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    Post by Pookus McFly Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:12 pm

    I was quietly wondering why nobody was interested in Blake Green, with the prospect of him picking up ~10 points per game with the 200 extra kms from no Johnson. He seemed to be taking pretty much all the kicking in the trials and possibly a super-POD at 1.6% ownership.

    Then I looked into his stats

    Games without SJ:
    36, 34, 26, 23, 44, 34

    An average of 32, actually below his season average and current price point.

    Carry on, gentlemen.

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