by StormTrooper96 Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:50 pm
Posted this ugly bunch up earlier and said I would have a look at value/potential/others in that range for my current squad?
HOK - McCullough 710K BE: 48
I thought I would take into account only his 80 minute games last year as I can't see him playing nothing but the 80. In those games he averaged 53.07. In 2017 when playing 80 minutes he averaged 59.87 (16 games) before getting injured in Rd21. With a BE of 48 and looking like scoring 53-60 when fully fit he is great value for his price.
Others to Consider - Jake Friend - for those saying he will play 80 minutes, he has only played 80 minutes in 18 out of his last 44 games... mind you he has averaged 70.15 minutes over this time.
FRF - Fifita 864K BE: 58
What do I have to say about this man. Yes he is top dollar but you are getting what you pay for. His trial/pre-season games seem to show a different side to this man and looks fitter/stronger/hungrier than ever. I don't think i need to say anymore.
Others at Price - Taupau - I just dont think he emulates his feats from last year. I am happy to be proven wrong. If he does i will want him in my team
FRF - Tolman 572K BE: 38
To be honest i had TPJ in this spot before I did this. Well Tolman looks the goods to me. Before Woods signed with Sharks Tolman was averaging 43.5 minutes a game and 27 pts/game. After woods lefts (RD16) Tolman averaged 62.8 minutes a game and 49.1 pts/game. Now that Klemmer is gone he has more workload and you would think more minutes to pick up.
Others at Price - Twal JS? LAM - Minutes? Then higher up is Ofa - how much value is really there? TPJ - Hammies plus big scores came at lock or 2rf. Vaughn - I like the looks but am turned off by game 1 in TSV then a 5 day turn around. Plus Tolman could match him early on.
2RF - Arrow 753K BE: 51
Bolstered a mighty 58.25pts/game in 57.88min/game before getting injured. After his injury and during Origin period his averages dropped to 45.38 pt/game and 52.54 min/game. Video surfaced of Arrow saying he is glad to be over all his niggling injuries, has given up the sauce, hasn't missed a training session and even agreed that he might have overplayed last year and felt tired and worn out towards the back end. If he can keep up his first half year form he is well underpriced at his range
2RF - Murray 595K BE: 40
Rabbits man. The new FAC? This man saw 52.43pts/game when starting lock last year at 58.3min/game. Even in the 3 games he played lock in 2017 he averaged 58 (84,43,47). With another year under his belt and under Bennett, who has pushed out some great 13's at the Broncos, he should keep this up or even see an increase, meaning he is well undervalued.
2RF - Gillett 556K BE: 37
This one is a little tricky. He is owned a lot more than I would've thought at 13.5%. I am not sure what the minutes will be like for this pack but also less sure what his role would be. I expect him to spend 20-25 minutes at lock then maybe have 10 minute spell and move to 2RF for rest of game or possibly just go straight there. I expect this to only be until TPJ is healthy. Even on this, Gillett should see more ball, more tackles... more points. In 2018 before his injury he was avg 45.6 and then had 48.9 in 2017 so this makes him very underpriced. He will want his Origin/AUS jersey back and will be working hard. Yes he is coming back from injury but he has had a full pre-season, picked up 10KG's and looked solid in the trial. He is value for me. I think once TPJ gets the lock spot it might be a nice downgrade (if TPJ were to lose some coin).
HLF - Munster 667K BE: 45
This one is more of a hunch on my behalf. I just think this is becoming his team now. With CS9 likely to move in as a 3rd ball handler at stages i think this will allow Munster to just go roaming and looking for the ball. He expect him to see more Kick Metres, more run metres and more tries. Big year for him. I think he will average 50+ so some value there.
HLF - Morgan 450K BE: 30
Well if history is anything to go off for this bloke he will be the most undervalued pick in the comp. In 2017, with no JT, Morgo averaged 53.06 and his kicking took a massive jump also. Only thing that worries me about this is in 2017 Cowboys just blitzed the comp and somehow made the GF. They went on a massive run and i am worried this might have contributed to Morgos scoring. If he can even average 45, which is no real stretch for him, he is very undervalued
CTR/WFB - Burns 323K BE: 22
This man is coming in at 2.1% ownership. His job security is questionable but his output is pretty great at CTR and Wing also in for that matter. With only 2 full games in 2018 of 43 on the wing and 50 at CTR, no tries in these games, he has an 80 minutes average of 46.5. His 2017 stats you dont want to look at, a lot of negatives and not many points. This was his first year so i guess you could put that down to young, inexperience. I want to take a punt on this guy as a POD who i think can score 35/game. Big Gamble here. At least he is priced accordingly to downgrade if he fails. I am happy to waste a trade on that.
CTR - Holland 440K BE:30
This man is only 5.1% ownership. Once he was finally dropped as a weird interchange player and made first grade CTR he averaged 45.2. When goal kicking (1 game) last year he scored 50 (7 goals). With Martin for some weird reason in 2nd grade Holland will pick up goal kicking. If Bulldogs can improve he should see an increase of 4-6 pts a game from GK alone. Very undervalued if he can keep this up.
WFB - Edwards 571K BE: 38
Did a write up earlier about this man. Pretty much went like this 45 before getting injured last year and 48.5 in 2017... again before getting injured. He has always been a massive POD and still is this year. I like to think when players get older they ten to get better and more consistent. So i think he may even push 50 a lot more consistently this year and is very underpriced.
WFB - CNK 379K BE: 25
I dont have much on Mr. Manbun but I remember watching a few games for the Warriors and thinking he looked really quick and nimble. I think FB will suit him and once he get a couple games under his belt he will thrive. Raiders are a very attacking team and FB's thrive off that go forward. Hoping for 35+ here, which will make him undervaled.
WFB/HLF - Hughes 502K BE: 34
I think everyone has seen enough write ups on this guy. I am going with gut feel here. Has big shoes to fill and he loves it down in Melbourne. I think he still has to prove that spot is his. Has Papy and Munster in contention still so he doesnt have it that easy. He is gutty, quick, hard and smart, all the things you want in a FB. I think he goes better than 45 and he has a big ceiling I feel with his ability to break tackles, break the line and just pop up in an attacking set out of nowhere. Value for mine!
Bench will be all in one
Mahoney, Garner, Nikora, Keighran
This bench i can see on average 160 points. Mahoney whether he gets 65 or he gets 80 minutes i see 45 as a genuine possibility. Garner went alright off the bench last year. Has a PPM of .75 and is expected anywhere between 60 and 80 minutes for the next 4-6 months, giving him a base of 45 (i've given him 40 just to be realistic). Nikora is in the same boat as Garner. He has been talked up by a few at Sharks and charged his way past Bukuya and Sorenson. With sorenson outside the 17 and Bukuya able to spend time in the middle Nikora should see 65+ minutes plus the DPP is handy. Keighran for me just edges out Brown. Keighran has GK and i think Moses controls more of the team than Green does.
EMG is Brown, Sivo, Rava and Garrick. - Pure money makers here. Ability to score 40 points in the first couple rounds and ride some nice waves.
114K leftover - this will help with any dud picks and jumpovers i need to make.
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