NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 23

Joey Superior wrote:Great input from everyone regarding POD/ownership.

Ownership aside who do we think is going to score more Twal vs Lawrie?

Do you think Twal could be a borderline keeper in the final 17?

I would pick Twal as a better long term scorer than Lawrie, based on what we know at the moment.

I think Twal sits a little below FRF keeper, but he will be good enough that you don't need to worry about 'fixing' him any time soon.. He has a solid history of (the dreaded) high PPM, and now appears to be getting the minutes.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I'd be targeting Burns over Bird too mate - Burns plugs one of those WFB spots and my gut tells me he will be a better fantasy scorer than Bird. He also strikes me as someone that could easily put a few 50+ scores together and make for a seamless upgrade to a gun later on...

Can you no get him this week mate? He could go huge on Sunday I reckon!

Yeah bud agree! Got Burns in for Morris this week.

Joey Superior wrote:Great input from everyone regarding POD/ownership.

Ownership aside who do we think is going to score more Twal vs Lawrie?

Do you think Twal could be a borderline keeper in the final 17?

Twal mate - but is apples and oranges a bit give the price difference isn't it? I doubt Twal will be a keeper, but he could carry you a long way. Hard to tell off of two games this season. Last week he was a sell for many people, this week he's a buy. Flavour of the week stuff. Much like Napa, Gillett etc, we probably need more time to see how their roles wok out and what scores we can reasonably expect moving forward.

my tv broke wrote:

I would pick Twal as a better long term scorer than Lawrie, based on what we know at the moment.

I think Twal sits a little below FRF keeper, but he will be good enough that you don't need to worry about 'fixing' him any time soon.. He has a solid history of (the dreaded) high PPM, and now appears to be getting the minutes.

Yeah for anyone who play fantasy NFL, Twal is an FR2 candidate whereas Lawrie is FR3 so cant compare them.

I have noticed quite a lot of people starting Lawrie and I appreciate he’s an enabler but he is 14-17 quality at best, ideally number 18/19 FRF cover only

wolfking wrote:Macca
Fifi Taupau
Murray Bateman Arrow
Morgan Keighan
Capewell Holland
Edwards Burns CNK

Mahoney Nikora Garner Lawrie

Brown Sivo Rava Morris

Who goes for Bird, Capewell or Holland?  Can't afford Morris, only got 34K.

Holland and it's not close imo.

GreenMachine wrote:

Yeah for anyone who play fantasy NFL, Twal is an FR2 candidate whereas Lawrie is FR3 so cant compare them.

I have noticed quite a lot of people starting Lawrie and I appreciate he’s an enabler but he is 14-17 quality at best, ideally number 18/19 FRF cover only

haha, yeah Im with you on the NFL analogy.

Disagree on the second point though. I think Lawrie is exactly what you are after for a spot in the 17. He's getting a bit pricy now, but initially a sub $300k guy who you can pretty much count of to hit 40 average is gold IMO. The more guys like him you can find to start the season with the better as it frees up the cash to have bigger guns elsewhere, all the while making cash at the same time.

GreenMachine wrote:I have noticed quite a lot of people starting Lawrie and I appreciate he’s an enabler but he is 14-17 quality at best, ideally number 18/19 FRF cover only

The big question is where Frizell fits back in when he returns. People can make assumptions, but we've no real idea as yet on whether he goes back to right edge or continues at lock.

Mary does seem fond of Lawrie though. But he's also fond of Host

Joey Superior wrote:Is it just me or does anyone feel like sometimes owning a POD could go the other way?

Example owning someone like Twal 2.8% you realise only you and a few others have to deal with this player so a large % of non-owners won't have the issue of having to deal with this player where as if owning someone like Lawrie who is in 11% of teams, kind of makes you feel "safer" knowing that other owners are in the same shit hole as you if he doesn't perform or needing replacement.

I am a huge POD fan. Nothing more satisfying than seeing the value in a player ahead of the pack, like Bateman or Burns and then watch everyone scrambling to get them in their team. The even more fun kind of POD though is the one that is doing great but remains under the radar and people still dont pick him up when significantly outperforming their price point like Katoa (has moved from 1.5% to 2% ownership this week) and Hughes (just 7% still). When a POD is still a POD after a few weeks performing well you can make big moves up the ladder.

Another way to play a POD strategy is in team structure. I love what Boozeclues is doing with his team full of hookers (has 5 of them since the start). All are highly owned, but no-one else has all of them, so when they all fire he scores great. This strategy allows him to use a lot of value picks in other positions and even though some of the value picks may not score so well at times, the hooker squad still gets him through for overall points.

I now have both a few low ownership PODs and have changed my team structure to 2 mid range halves that are both showing good form and don't include Morgan. That makes it very different to the teams above me, which almost all have Morgan with Keighran/Brown, or a few have Cleary or Johnson. It fixed the biggest weakness in my team, giving me much better balance and the opportunity to gain some ground coming up, especially on weeks where scoring goes like last weekend.

Not sure if anyone else is like me, but having players that are stress free makes it a lot easier to watch and keeps me sane. Watching Keighran and Morgan last week was driving me nuts. Would rather have some consistency than players that can deliver a shocker.

Sometimes you are going to miss a great high ownership player like Bird, but you can't catch them all.

GreenMachine wrote:

Yeah for anyone who play fantasy NFL, Twal is an FR2 candidate whereas Lawrie is FR3 so cant compare them.

I have noticed quite a lot of people starting Lawrie and I appreciate he’s an enabler but he is 14-17 quality at best, ideally number 18/19 FRF cover only

Great post and all good points. Lawrie is a must have for cash not points, the fact he's been scoring well is a bonus but Fifita he is not. A FRF backup at best. But a good scorer in the interim in the 14-17

White Lightning wrote:Year's ago I brought Steve Matai for my team, everyone laughed at me & then he reeled off 3 consecutive scores in the 40's.

I remember that. He made it all the way back to base price that year then had a decent run.

Is Tolman to Surgess a stupid trade? Panicking owning Tolman every week 20pt spell then stays off until 20 mins to go but scores ok. Sold Twal instead of Holland last week so trying to limit bad trades

Capewell - Burns? Means I don't have to start Rava/Sivo but will probably have to play both Brown and Keighran on my bench. Seems unnecessary now that I have typed it out however

wolfking wrote:Macca
Fifi Taupau
Murray Bateman Arrow
Morgan Keighan
Capewell Holland
Edwards Burns CNK

Mahoney Nikora Garner Lawrie

Brown Sivo Rava Morris

Who goes for Bird, Capewell or Holland?  Can't afford Morris, only got 34K.

Holland.
Thats the only trade i've made this week so far

StuDogg101 wrote:Capewell - Burns? Means I don't have to start Rava/Sivo but will probably have to play both Brown and Keighran on my bench. Seems unnecessary now that I have typed it out however

I've had Burns from the start and in your shoes would be trying to fit him in.... just probably not for Capewell

GreenMachine wrote:

Yeah for anyone who play fantasy NFL, Twal is an FR2 candidate whereas Lawrie is FR3 so cant compare them.

I have noticed quite a lot of people starting Lawrie and I appreciate he’s an enabler but he is 14-17 quality at best, ideally number 18/19 FRF cover only

I agree. I'm starting with Lawrie this week, but I'll be bringing in an FR2 next week. I haven't settled on who to bring in yet. Twal might be an option, Mclean maybe, or Jnr Paulo (while NBrown is out) might be an option. I'll be looking at all 3 closely this weekend

Loomer wrote:Is Tolman to Surgess a stupid trade? Panicking owning Tolman every week 20pt spell then stays off until 20 mins to go but scores ok. Sold Twal instead of Holland last week so trying to limit bad trades

Weirdly i'm not sold on this trade in fantasy but am looking at it for supercoach

Loomer wrote:Is Tolman to Surgess a stupid trade? Panicking owning Tolman every week 20pt spell then stays off until 20 mins to go but scores ok. Sold Twal instead of Holland last week so trying to limit bad trades

i have Tolman and decided to leave it another week as Bulldogs need to fix there rotation, Napa / Tolman off @ 20 minutes and they are leading 10 - nil and when they come back 40 minutes!!! later they are down by 18. Surely he goes back to a 60 minute player to keep the dogs competitive.

StuDogg101 wrote:Capewell - Burns? Means I don't have to start Rava/Sivo but will probably have to play both Brown and Keighran on my bench. Seems unnecessary now that I have typed it out however

Really tough one SD. I didn’t know that this Burns was essential until seeing him again and I’ve seen enough.

I actually think he’s a WFB keeper. Especially if Ponga doesn’t move back to fullback. Crazy scenes

Set and forget WFB3

Loomer wrote:Is Tolman to Surgess a stupid trade? Panicking owning Tolman every week 20pt spell then stays off until 20 mins to go but scores ok. Sold Twal instead of Holland last week so trying to limit bad trades

I think Tolman (Pay) deserves 1 more week. If he gets a bump in minutes he will post the numbers we put him in our teams for, if not, I'll probably sell him next week. Pay's clearly made changes this week, lets see if those also involve more minutes for Tolman.

Capewell will score 50 points this week. Don’t sell him.