NRL Fantasy 2019 Part 23

@Teeth Eater wrote:
So with Lafai, Moylan and Inglis all in doubt, are we looking at a scenario where Lomax, Xerri and Allan all play this week?

As someone currently bringing in Garrick as I’ve no alternative, that would be very sexy... except all are probably just one offs at this point, I assume.

Edit — just reading a few recent posts, is Xerri already a certainty?

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@my tv broke wrote:
Are you saying that you're trading in Garrick?

I think he has better job security for the foreseeable future than the rest of those guys (personally, I reckon he will stay in the team all year). Lomax and Xerri could end up getting long stints in the team but they're a bold risk right now.

Allan is probably not someone I'd touch.

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Sorry for the late reply. For the reasons you state I kind of hope nothing gets confirmed before tonight’s game so I’m forced to stick with Garrick, just because, like you say, he’s probably there all season.

The other part of me, who’s irritated by what is a wasted trade, just to get Bird in, would love to “un-waste” this trade and bring in someone now that will save me a future trade, in which case it wouldn’t seem like a questionable move.

Basically, I have to punt Burr and Host to get Bird, and at this point it only leaves enough for Garrick or Sele, and I prefer Garrick.

Xerri, Lomax and even Allan all appeal to me, but before taking a punt I’d love some sort of proposed job security. I can only see Lomax being one game fill in for Lafai if that happens, unless Ravalawa tanks again and Lomax shines, and he takes his spot next week?

Xerri has appeal because of the double replacement possibility. If he plays this week for Feki there’s the chance Moylan’s injury gets worse and Xerri is in again for either Feki or him next week. It seems likely he will get a go in the short term, but it’s a solid risk.

Allan, who I understand was pretty underwhelming in the trials so may not be a good fantasy option anyway... but to me, he probably has the best chance of longevity, assuming he is direct replacement for Inglis. Inglis is a wreck and I can’t see him playing more than a couple more games this season, personally. But Allan is one I’d wait and see before I bought. The other two, if available, would be very tempting to take a punt on.

Like - Holland To Katoa (Can get Teddy next Week)
or
Dislike - Holland to Nikoure (No Cash for Teddy next Week)

Is it just me or does anyone feel like sometimes owning a POD could go the other way?

Example owning someone like Twal 2.8% you realise only you and a few others have to deal with this player so a large % of non-owners won't have the issue of having to deal with this player where as if owning someone like Lawrie who is in 11% of teams, kind of makes you feel "safer" knowing that other owners are in the same shit hole as you if he doesn't perform or needing replacement.

Joey Superior wrote:Is it just me or does anyone feel like sometimes owning a POD could go the other way?

Example owning someone like Twal 2.8% you realise only you and a few others have to deal with this player so a large % of non-owners won't have the issue of having to deal with this player where as if owning someone like Lawrie who is in 11% of teams, kind of makes you feel "safer" knowing that other owners are in the same shit hole as you if he doesn't perform or needing replacement.

I completely ignore ownership percentage and choose the players I think will score the most points. Following the pack is a nice way to get a top 1000 finish but you will never win the whole thing.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I completely ignore ownership percentage and choose the players I think will score the most points. Following the pack is a nice way to get a top 1000 finish but you will never win the whole thing.

I go the other way, and bring in players who are highly owned but aren't likely to score well.

Misery loves company, and my Kahu / Cartwright / Ponga / Garrick squad are pleasantly disappointing

Joey Superior wrote:Is it just me or does anyone feel like sometimes owning a POD could go the other way?

Example owning someone like Twal 2.8% you realise only you and a few others have to deal with this player so a large % of non-owners won't have the issue of having to deal with this player where as if owning someone like Lawrie who is in 11% of teams, kind of makes you feel "safer" knowing that other owners are in the same shit hole as you if he doesn't perform or needing replacement.

Well that's the point. You're taking the risk of dealing with a problem that few others would be dealing with on the chance that they do well and get you points that other people aren't going to get.

I usually like to go for all the high ownership players at the start of the season. If they fail, a lot of people fail with you but if they succeed and you don't have them then you're only handicapping yourself.

However sometimes you got to back yourself. I thought Kahu was going to be a trap and decided to take the risk and go Burns in Round 1. That one paid off. Kerrod Holland, not so much.

You win some, you lose some.

Year's ago I brought Steve Matai for my team, everyone laughed at me & then he reeled off 3 consecutive scores in the 40's.

Joey Superior wrote:Is it just me or does anyone feel like sometimes owning a POD could go the other way?

Example owning someone like Twal 2.8% you realise only you and a few others have to deal with this player so a large % of non-owners won't have the issue of having to deal with this player where as if owning someone like Lawrie who is in 11% of teams, kind of makes you feel "safer" knowing that other owners are in the same shit hole as you if he doesn't perform or needing replacement.

Im a little confused. Were you under the impression that getting a POD ensured a good outcome? Im having you on mate, but that is kinda how your post reads

Yeah of course mate, thats the risk of a POD. If you chose the right one, great, you get points that a bunch of people aren't gonna get, if not, well then you are up shit creek cause there are few others going down with the ship u r on.

As posted above. Forget ownership percentages, they mean bugger all anyway cause you are probably only genuinely interested in ~10% of teams in the league anyway, but at the end of the day you should pick the best 21 guys you believe are best. Whether they are well owned or not, at this stage of the season shouldn't really come into consideration.

Anyone see any problems a part from the Half Roulette and the NPR’s stinking it up?

Cook(c)
Fifita Tolman
Arrow Murray Gillett
Morgan Keighran
Nikora Burns
Hughes CNK Edwards

Mahoney Garner Capewell Bird
Sele Sivo Rava Brown

111K

Cash itb isn’t the best but only way to get cash is to downgrade somewhere at the moment
Currently sitting at 568

Is Tolman to Surgess a stupid trade?

StormTrooper96 wrote:Anyone see any problems a part from the Half Roulette and the NPR’s stinking it up?

Cook(c)
Fifita Tolman
Arrow Murray Gillett
Morgan Keighran
Nikora Burns
Hughes CNK Edwards

Mahoney Garner Capewell Bird
Sele Sivo Rava Brown

111K

Cash itb isn’t the best but only way to get cash is to downgrade somewhere at the moment
Currently sitting at 568

Pretty solid. You could also play hughes in the halves, burns to wfb and bird to centre.

Gives more flexibility as to who's in the 14-17. Probably would be Keighran this week out of that bench though. Bird's in the first game as well.

StormTrooper96 wrote:Anyone see any problems a part from the Half Roulette and the NPR’s stinking it up?

Cook(c)
Fifita Tolman
Arrow Murray Gillett
Morgan Keighran
Nikora Burns
Hughes CNK Edwards

Mahoney Garner Capewell Bird
Sele Sivo Rava Brown

111K

Cash itb isn’t the best but only way to get cash is to downgrade somewhere at the moment
Currently sitting at 568

I guess Lawrie is the guy you are missing.... but with that $ (and team) Im not sure you can make a sensible play to get him. Some are dropping Capewell, perhaps Capewell to Lawrie and back some cash. Alternatively, you could just sit tight and hope like fuck Sivo, Rava, and Sele pull finger. Trouble is, if they dont, and no other CCs pops up, you are gonna really struggle in a few weeks IMO!

Better trade in - Bird or Burns?

danaconda86 wrote:Better trade in - Bird or Burns?

Depends on your team, in most teams CTR is strong, WFB weak and that makes Burns the better pick.

danaconda86 wrote:Better trade in - Bird or Burns?

Burns for me. I think regardless of your current team, he is the better play. He's gonna get a banner this week

I haven't posted my team - so here goes, any thoughts appreciated.

Macca
Fifita, Tolman
Arrow, Murray, Gillett
Morgan, Croft
Bateman, Nikora
Edwards, Burns, CNK

Mahoney, Garner, Capewell Bird, Rava Lawrie

Keighran, Brown, Host, Mikaele

Two trades this week pencilled in are Capewell & Rava to Bird and Lawire with the view to making cash as fast as possible and no need to keep Capewell anymore with Bateman and Nikora the two best C options going round at the mo.

Cheers in advance.

StormTrooper96 wrote:Anyone see any problems a part from the Half Roulette and the NPR’s stinking it up?

Cook(c)
Fifita Tolman
Arrow Murray Gillett
Morgan Keighran
Nikora Burns
Hughes CNK Edwards

Mahoney Garner Capewell Bird
Sele Sivo Rava Brown

111K

Cash itb isn’t the best but only way to get cash is to downgrade somewhere at the moment
Currently sitting at 568

I feel like you not having Lawrie will be your biggest problem but he's getting on the expensive side now (up there with Napa)
And Sele Sivo Rava if they fail to make cash, but most people do have on average 2 cows that are not making any real money.

You either be patient or you make a move on Waddell/Flegler (although a risk I think both these guys will play themselves into long term 17 - unless Haas kills it in reserve grade for a few weeks).

Macca
Fifi Taupau
Murray Bateman Arrow
Morgan Keighan
Capewell Holland
Edwards Burns CNK

Mahoney Nikora Garner Lawrie

Brown Sivo Rava Morris

Who goes for Bird, Capewell or Holland? Can't afford Morris, only got 34K.

I kinda hate the POD discussion. Its not really a "strategy". The best strategy is picking the players who will score the most points.

Its fun to discuss ownerships and changes, who's popular/who isn't, but I'm with MS, I don't even think about ownership % when it comes to choosing a player.

Great input from everyone regarding POD/ownership.

Ownership aside who do we think is going to score more Twal vs Lawrie?

Do you think Twal could be a borderline keeper in the final 17?