Round 9 Trades

Tom Dearden is the much better cash out option to Hudson Young. Remember it was only 1 round ago Young was dropped. Is a possible chance at the 30 points in rd12 worth the risk of double trading him if dropped? plus he has a max amount of time he can make money (4-6 weeks) with Dearden can be used to make money and cover the halves so we can trade out Morgan and Cartwright and has long term money making ability.

Shanbon wrote:Tom Dearden is the much better cash out option to Hudson Young. Remember it was only 1 round ago Young was dropped. Is a possible chance at the 30 points in rd12 worth the risk of double trading him if dropped? plus he has a max amount of time he can make money (4-6 weeks) with Dearden can be used to make money and cover the halves so we can trade out Morgan and Cartwright and has long term money making ability.

100% agree that he is the 'safer' option.

The point people miss (and whats missing in your post) is that while Young wouldn't have such a long time to generate cash, that is actually the appeal of him as a purchase right now. He generates cash which can and would be used prior to round 16 ()probably from 13). For arguments sake, lets say he makes $150k by the end of 12. Thats 10 points per round that can be used for 4 rounds that any Deardon money cant be cause you are forced to hold him until 16. Spent wisely on value its arguably worth more than 10 per round. I'd say you should get at least 50 extra points. Add that to the 30-40 you'd hope for from round 12. And you are looking at a gain of upwards of 80 points. In terms of ranks, right now that would almost put us in the top 100 (for 400 right now).

Heck even 40 points nearly halves our ranking!!

Ultimately, with all the information accounted for, it is still a risk reward situation. I 100% acknowledge the risks, but I'll always tend to the option that has the biggest upside as long as the risk is reasonable in my eyes.

I want more then a possible 80 points and 150k from 2 trades.

Shanbon wrote:I want more then a possible 80 points and 150k from 2 trades.

Haha, ok, just quickly, what do you think you get from Deardon?

It's just one trade BTW - another common misconception in this game.

For me personally, I target $150k from a cash cow. So to 1/4 you ranking on top of that would be magic!

We might regret it, but the community preference is for Dearden over Young. So I have pulled the trigger on trades (can always reverse if things change)

RnT makes a lot of good points about why Young might be better, but I think people just have concerns over job security and don't want a Whitbread type situation (that was my initial concern and although I now think he might be worth the risk it seems others don't share that opinion). It's a risk/reward situation and I guess people think Dearden is the safer bet

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Haha, ok, just quickly, what do you think you get from Deardon?

It's just one trade BTW - another common misconception in this game.

For me personally, I target $150k from a cash cow. So to 1/4 you ranking on top of that would be magic!

I dont think 150k is enough from a cash cow right now. Id like to buy at 220 (or at worse 1 week later) sell at close to 500. Im looking for a 35 avg over the mid term, if they go bang and make that quicker even better. The longer the season goes the less ill accept (as there are fewer cows around and money is needed quicker) but in the first half of the season you want to maximise the use of trades.

Milchy wrote:
We might regret it, but the community preference is for Dearden over Young. So I have pulled the trigger on trades (can always reverse if things change)

RnT makes a lot of good points about why Young might be better, but I think people just have concerns over job security and don't want a Whitbread type situation (that was my initial concern and although I now think he might be worth the risk it seems others don't share that opinion). It's a risk/reward situation and I guess people think Dearden is the safer bet

So much chance involved in this game I have no problem at all with the consensus opinion here. On the balance I would go a different direction obviously. I just posted a bit on this one as I dont think people quite realise the opportunity cost involved in this call. Also, the '2 trades' thing concerns me too in terms of the information people are making a decision on.

Anyway, its done. Fingers crossed

Krump wrote:
I agree with this. I'm hoping for 35 and in until after rd 12. Didn't @Archer say yesterday that Ricky has confirmed he won't be resting the young guys anymore?

I did ye, it was in our post game press conference and he just said he won't be rotating and will be going by performance/form from here on.