NRL Fantasy 2019 part 73

Mulvy wrote:

A four forward bench? A new way to screw with Kapow's minutes? Where's Milfy for a rant?

I don't recall Des using a 4 forward bench all year.

Who would be replacing Kikau on Panthers edge??

If I would be picking a POD captain, I'd be looking at probably Bateman, but not going to do it myself

Rabbit wrote:

I’m still thinking about punting him. I really want Murray back again, if for no other reason than to back my earlier predictions about him.

Don't forget to grab Ryan James as well

Camo123 wrote:Who would be replacing Kikau on Panthers edge??

If I would be picking a POD captain, I'd be looking at probably Bateman, but not going to do it myself

Probably Yeo with Martin coming into Lock. If Martin's not fit possibly RCG starting with JFH to lock and Yeo backrow.

Here is the fixture analysis for Haas.

Haas is up against Titans this week.
In 2019, starting props PPM against the titans is 0.829
The same prop’s seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.901
That means that starting props PPM decreases by 7.56% when playing against the titans.
If Haas’s PPM decreased by 8.06% then it would become 0.98, giving him a score of 61 over 62 minutes (his average minutes for the season)

The last 5 games, starting props PPM has been 0.944 against the titans
The same props seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.958
That means that in the last 5 weeks, starting props PPM decreases by 1.46% when playing against the dragons.
If Haas’s PPM decreased by 1.46% then it would become 1.04, giving him a score of 65 over 62 minutes

In the last 3 games, starting props PPM has been 0.937 against the titans
The same props seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.93
That means that in the last 3 weeks, starting props PPM increases by 0.72% when playing against the titans.
If Haas’s PPM increased by 0.72% then it would become 1.08, giving him a score of 66 across 62 minutes.

Here is a graph of the progression is the percentage higher (or lower) a players PPM is against the titans compared to their seasonal PPM. If the difference is positive then their PPM against the titans was higher than their seasonal PPM. If the difference is negative than their PPM against the titans was lower than their season average



The equation of this graph is y = 1.0288x - 15.065
The X axis is the number of games. This week is the 18th game. If I substitute 18 into that equation it comes out as y = 18.5184 - 10.833
That means y = 3.4534
If Haas’s PPM increased by 3.45% then it would become 1.096, giving him a score of 68 over 62 minutes

In conclusion.
Props PPM decreases by 7.56% against the titans over the season
In the last 5 games there is a decrease of 1.46%
In the last 3 games there is an increase of 0.72%
The equation of the graph predicts that there will be an increase of 3.45%

The combined average for these is 65 points

Rabbits21 wrote:
In another head to head league I’m in I am coming 2nd.

I think I’d be keen to join one on here for 2020 if I can when it comes around.

In case no one has covered this.
Just look at this place in the lead up to next season and you'll easily find out how to get into one of our leagues.

Krump wrote:
I was having dumplings last week and couldn't find the soy sauce, my diickhead housemate had put it in the fridge. Said person also threw out my pickles once because they'd been in the fridge so long that they must have gone bad...

Soy sauce and pickles, two of the best. Cold soy sauce......

Anyone else in that 1 trade left pause mode ? Has happened to me in previous years, get all sensible and precious with the last remaining trade and hold onto it.
I think I'm holding until it's absolutely.needed, like an injured gun etc

Mighty Fishes wrote:I’ve got Twal and I’m going to keep him (0 trades) but honestly what choice do I have.

Fixed

Ben Marlin wrote:Here is the fixture analysis for Haas.

Haas is up against Titans this week.
In 2019, starting props PPM against the titans is 0.829
The same prop’s seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.901
That means that starting props PPM decreases by 7.56% when playing against the titans.
If Haas’s PPM decreased by 8.06% then it would become 0.98, giving him a score of 61 over 62 minutes (his average minutes for the season)

The last 5 games, starting props PPM has been 0.944 against the titans
The same props seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.958
That means that in the last 5 weeks, starting props PPM decreases by 1.46% when playing against the dragons.
If Haas’s PPM decreased by 1.46% then it would become 1.04, giving him a score of 65 over 62 minutes

In the last 3 games, starting props PPM has been 0.937 against the titans
The same props seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.93
That means that in the last 3 weeks, starting props PPM increases by 0.72% when playing against the titans.
If Haas’s PPM increased by 0.72% then it would become 1.08, giving him a score of 66 across 62 minutes.

Here is a graph of the progression is the percentage higher (or lower) a players PPM is against the titans compared to their seasonal PPM. If the difference is positive then their PPM against the titans was higher than their seasonal PPM. If the difference is negative than their PPM against the titans was lower than their season average



The equation of this graph is y = 1.0288x - 15.065
The X axis is the number of games. This week is the 18th game. If I substitute 18 into that equation it comes out as y = 18.5184 - 10.833
That means y = 3.4534
If Haas’s PPM increased by 3.45% then it would become 1.096, giving him a score of 68 over 62 minutes

In conclusion.
Props PPM decreases by 7.56% against the titans over the season
In the last 5 games there is a decrease of 1.46%
In the last 3 games there is an increase of 0.72%
The equation of the graph predicts that there will be an increase of 3.45%

The combined average for these is 65 points

I’m guessing looking at the plot you took our Fifita injury in R9?

I like what your trying to do, just not sure it’s that predictive.

Haas scored 65 in 48 playing the Titans already this season. Which looks like the highest dot on the plot (R13)

Vegemite in the fridge is a criminal offence. Also, marmite and promite are the Gold Coast Titans of spreads.

If anyone wants to join an FPL league I went ahead and created one

League code is nl8scs

Does anyone have the captaincy percentages for this week?

Camo123 wrote:If anyone wants to join an FPL league I went ahead and created one

League code is nl8scs

Joined. Blanks United team name

Nrl4Life wrote:

Ok re-did my trades. Waddel>Clark and Brooks>DCE

Are those Fallout tabs 76 related?

Mighty Fishes wrote:

Khany wrote:Nene McDonald fast becoming the NRL's next welfare case.

I don’t ever recall him being this evasive on the field

Mighty Fishes wrote:I’ve got Twal and I’m going to keep him (0 trades)

Ponga for prez wrote:Does anyone have the captaincy percentages for this week?

Cook - 16.43% (for good reason)
Smith - 15.33%
Haas - 10.65%
Taumalolo - 10.26%
J Trbojevic - 3.96%
Ponga - 2.62%
Tedesco - 2.43%
RTS - 2.01%
Taupau - 1.43%
Farah - 1.22%
Munster - 1.04%
Everybody else is <1%

StuDogg101 wrote:Shit hit the fan here today huh? How would people have reacted to the debates of halcyon days gone by such as what kind of sociopath keeps their in the cupboard?!

*starts poll*

Ben Marlin wrote:
Cook - 16.43% (for good reason)
Smith - 15.33%
Haas - 10.65%
Taumalolo - 10.26%
J Trbojevic - 3.96%
Ponga - 2.62%
Tedesco - 2.43%
RTS - 2.01%
Taupau - 1.43%
Farah - 1.22%
Munster - 1.04%
Everybody else is <1%

Thanks mate, where do you find this out?