NRL Fantasy 2019 part 73

Im screwed this week and have to play Carrigan as starting FRF. 
Here's hoping the Broncos kick out to a solid early lead so they can reduce Haas' workload and let Carrigan pick up some extra mins. I would hate to see young Haas over doing it and burning himself out early in the season, or maybe I'm just being selfish.

Crossing fingers that Burns is really OK otherwise I'm down to 16.
I am sure a lot will be doing the same for Tevaga.

Captain Ponga for me this week. I reckon he will find a few holes around the Tigers defence, plus at home and in a pretty important game for them. Ponga was quiet by his standards last week. We will see his first tonne this week.... mark my words.

White Lightning wrote:

Awesome post mate. Greatly appreciated. I always read your analysis re previous posts. It's good too have another stats driven poster on the forum.

Thanks mate, much appreciated

Milchy wrote:
Also Ben Marlin, what do you predict Haas to score.

His current 3 game average is 78, higher than what you've predicted Cook to get. That is inflated by tries, but he still would come into captaincy consideration.

I will do Haas tonight

Haven't done this in a while but I will try and start it up again. Here is ST's Tips for the week.
CERTAINTY:
Roosters - What more can I say. Close to their strongest team yet. Seem to be hitting their straps coming into the finals and will be far too strong for the Doggies. Not much more to say here.
UPSET:
Warriors - Eels seem a bit shell shocked after last weeks big loss to Manly and have made a few changes. Maumalo is big for them plus Niko and RTS are in some good form at the moment, Warriors will find a way to win.
SMOKEY CAPTAIN:
The man wearing my armband this week is Ponga. Been a little quiet through the Origin period, along with Knights form. Knights need to find a win here and Ponga needs to find another gear for them and he will. Ponga is in for a big game and will score a couple meaties. Will be in everything.

Ben Marlin wrote:I promised that I will do an in-depth post explaining why Cook is the best captaincy option, here it is. I will go through the other captaincy options later (Smith, McInnes, Haas, Taumalolo)

Cook is up against Dragons this week.
In 2019, starting hookers PPM against the dragons is 0.719
The same hooker’s seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.697
That means that starting hookers PPM increases by 3.44% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 3.44% then it would become 0.82, giving him a score of 67 over 80. minutes

The last 5 games, starting hookers PPM has been 0.854
The same hookers seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.672
That means that in the last 5 weeks, starting hookers PPM increases by 28% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 28% then it would become 1.02, giving him a score of 82 over 80 minutes

In the last 3 games, starting hookers PPM has been 0.957
The same hookers seasonal PPM averages out to be 0.677
That means that in the last 5 weeks, starting hookers PPM increases by 43.08% when playing against the dragons.
If Cook’s PPM increased by 43.08% then it would become 1.14, giving him a score of 91 across 80 minutes

If I weight the games so that the more recent a game the high the weight and the earlier the game the less the weight (there are too many numbers to fully explain, if you want to know how I did it than I can tell you later) hookers PPM increases by 4.33% when playing against the dragons

Here is a graph of the progression is the percentage higher (or lower) a players PPM is against the dragons compared to their seasonal PPM. If the difference is positive then their PPM against the dragons was higher than their seasonal PPM. If the difference is negative than their PPM against the dragons was lower than their season average

The equation of this graph is y = 1.3241x - 10.833
The X axis is the number of games. This week is the 18th game. If I substitute 18 into that equation it comes out as y = 23.8338 - 10.833
That means y = 13.0008
If Cook’s PPM increased by 13% then it would become 0.899, giving him a score of 72 over 80 minutes

In conclusion.
Hookers PPM increases by 3.44% against the dragons over the season
In the last 5 games there is an increase of 38%
In the last 3 games there is an increase of 43.08%
The weighted average for hookers against the dragons is 4.33%
The equation of the graph predicts that there will be an increase of 13%

Interesting mate, and nice work.

It's funny how numbers can work though.

The first thing I notice about the figure is that of 17 games, 8 players scored below their PPM vs 7 that scored above. (2 about even). So if you very simply look at that break down you dont end up with the same level of confidence that cook will go big.

I also note that Cook scored 63 in their first match up this year - bang on his average.

I also think there may be flaws in focussing on the time trend given recent personnel changes at the dragons and Origin. But I can see why you might do that too.

Therefore I think your 3.44% figure is probably the best stat of them all. Chuck a CI around that though and I suspect it would contain zero.

Love what you've done though mate!

Hey lads, do I need to trade this week? 4 trades left and 100K. can't do much without using 2 though. Leaning towards holding. Can play Lomax if Xerri is shit.

Cook
Taupau Haas
Murray Tolo Bateman
SJ Ponga
Burns Nikora
Ponga Teddy CNK

Smith MC9 Fainu Brittain

Xerri Lomax Coates Fifita

Cheers!

wolfking wrote:Hey lads, do I need to trade this week?  4 trades left and 100K.  can't do much without using 2 though.  Leaning towards holding.  Can play Lomax if Xerri is shit.

Cook
Taupau Haas
Murray Tolo Bateman
SJ Ponga
Burns Nikora
Ponga Teddy CNK

Smith MC9 Fainu Brittain

Xerri Lomax Coates Fifita

Cheers!

Looks good to me mate

wolfking wrote:Hey lads, do I need to trade this week?  4 trades left and 100K.  can't do much without using 2 though.  Leaning towards holding.  Can play Lomax if Xerri is shit.

Cook
Taupau Haas
Murray Tolo Bateman
SJ Ponga
Burns Nikora
Ponga Teddy CNK

Smith MC9 Fainu Brittain

Xerri Lomax Coates Fifita

Cheers!

I'm a serial trade-a-holic but I can't help but notice that you can do Xerri + Lomax to Jurbo + 212 with 1k left and then move Bateman to CTR, Burns to 4th INT. Though the 212 options are pretty pathetic now with basically a punt on wingers with questionable job security

Probably just best holding the trades as you'd only have 212k player in your EMG though potentially something to look at soon with Lomax having low BE but probably lower scoring potential on wing

filthridden wrote:Crossing fingers that Burns is really OK otherwise I'm down to 16.
I am sure a lot will be doing the same for Tevaga.

Check and check. For some reason I'm more worried about Tevaga than Burns so I've been drafting plans because if he's out I get a zero. If he's out I could:

1. Play with 16
2. Use my last trade to trade Tevaga to anyone. Players I don't have include Jurbo, Turbo, DCE, Cleary, Milford, Munster, ARey. I can't trade Fifita because he will have played already.
3. Use my last trade to trade Fusitua to someone 415k or less who plays during or after the Warriors game such as Tapine, Naden, Whitbread, Staggs etc. I can't trade Brittain because he would have played already.

Out of those I don't like option 3 because Fusitua will be back soon and it's sideways and doesn't improve my 17/18 at all, and won't necessarily get me that many points this week. I could just play with 16 saving that valuable trade and Fifita and Fusitua will be back soon enough. I lean towards option 2 because Tevaga might have an expiry date anyway, I can get decent points this week and I would have 19 players I could limp home with. Thoughts?

Camo123 wrote:

I'm a serial trade-a-holic but I can't help but notice that you can do Xerri + Lomax to Jurbo + 212 with 1k left and then move Bateman to CTR, Burns to 4th INT. Though the 212 options are pretty pathetic now with basically a punt on wingers with questionable job security

Probably just best holding the trades as you'd only have 212k player in your EMG though potentially something to look at soon with Lomax having low BE but probably lower scoring potential on wing

Fuck that looks good mate and very tempting haha. Yeah, the only one worth a punt is the Dragons winger but his security is obvioulsy a worry. Would leave me Burns as 18th man as Fifita would sub in next week. You have me thinking.

Camo123 wrote:

I'm a serial trade-a-holic but I can't help but notice that you can do Xerri + Lomax to Jurbo + 212 with 1k left and then move Bateman to CTR, Burns to 4th INT. Though the 212 options are pretty pathetic now with basically a punt on wingers with questionable job security

Probably just best holding the trades as you'd only have 212k player in your EMG though potentially something to look at soon with Lomax having low BE but probably lower scoring potential on wing

I reckon wait a couple weeks for Fainu to be a sell and you should be able to grab almost anyone, if you have any cash leftover from that use that money to go Xerri to someone you can afford who you may want.
Next week Fifi goes to FRF, Taupau to 2RF and BAteman to CTR with Burns back in Reserves. If you wait for Fainu to peak and sell to Jurbo/Matterson you can move Taupau down to your Reserves and have a pretty good EMG as well

StormTrooper96 wrote:

I reckon wait a couple weeks for Fainu to be a sell and you should be able to grab almost anyone, if you have any cash leftover from that use that money to go Xerri to someone you can afford who you may want.
Next week Fifi goes to FRF, Taupau to 2RF and BAteman to CTR with Burns back in Reserves. If you wait for Fainu to peak and sell to Jurbo/Matterson you can move Taupau down to your Reserves and have a pretty good EMG as well

Good call mate. I've held Lomax so might as well see how he goes and raise a few more dollars. I keep forgetting I'll need to possibly swap Fainu at some stage.

Thanks lads. Hopeuflly Xerri can get a bit more involved and score a meaty or two and stop his money leaking.

Mulvy wrote:

I don't know about any JBG/Rev rivalry, but I thought the joke was funny and upvoted it. (yeah but I do lame Dad jokes frequently)

There is no rivalry, I don't even know who they are.

Regardless I've seen what passes for hilarity on this forum and with it I think it's a good time to bid this place farewell and adieu for the year.

Johnny B Goode wrote:

There is no rivalry, I don't even know who they are.  

Regardless I've seen what passes for hilarity on this forum and with it I think it's a good time to bid this place farewell and adieu for the year.    

Hilarious! 

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Interesting mate, and nice work.

It's funny how numbers can work though.

The first thing I notice about the figure is that of 17 games, 8 players scored below their PPM vs 7 that scored above. (2 about even). So if you very simply look at that break down you dont end up with the same level of confidence that cook will go big.

I also note that Cook scored 63 in their first match up this year - bang on his average.

I also think there may be flaws in focussing on the time trend given recent personnel changes at the dragons and Origin. But I can see why you might do that too.

Therefore I think your 3.44% figure is probably the best stat of them all. Chuck a CI around that though and I suspect it would contain zero.

Love what you've done though mate!

Thank you
You raise some good points but no hooker has scored below their PPM since round 11.

Johnny B Goode wrote:

There is no rivalry, I don't even know who they are.  

Regardless I've seen what passes for hilarity on this forum and with it I think it's a good time to bid this place farewell and adieu for the year.    

lol wut?

wolfking wrote:

lol wut?

He wasn't happy with a sexist joke and doesn't want to stick around. Thought that was pretty clear.

Ok re-did my trades. Waddel>Clark and Brooks>DCE