Homemattnz wrote:
AJ maybe?
Douiehi and Meaney are two. AJ not sure.
NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition
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Douiehi and Meaney are two. AJ not sure.
mattnz- Fanatic
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Update on injuries https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/01/23/casualty-ward--late-mail-all-the-latest-nrl-injury-news/
Key things to note:
Jurbo and AFB back early rounds, exact timing TBC
JFH should be back for round 1
Tevaga due back round 4 or 5
Egan should be right for round 1
Lawton out for early rounds
Roache not back until mid-season
(With Luke no longer at Warriors and 3 other hookers injured, Egan looks like a great option)
Liddle out until middle of the season
Key things to note:
Jurbo and AFB back early rounds, exact timing TBC
JFH should be back for round 1
Tevaga due back round 4 or 5
Egan should be right for round 1
Lawton out for early rounds
Roache not back until mid-season
(With Luke no longer at Warriors and 3 other hookers injured, Egan looks like a great option)
Liddle out until middle of the season
Chewie- Fanatic
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mattnz wrote:Update on injuries https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/01/23/casualty-ward--late-mail-all-the-latest-nrl-injury-news/
Key things to note:
Jurbo and AFB back early rounds, exact timing TBC
JFH should be back for round 1
Tevaga due back round 4 or 5
Egan should be right for round 1
Lawton out for early rounds
Roache not back until mid-season
(With Luke no longer at Warriors and 3 other hookers injured, Egan looks like a great option)
Liddle out until middle of the season
Thanks for the update, I didn't realise that Tevaga was still out injured.
Iron Mike- Posts : 811
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Ben Marlin wrote:
I might just point out that at the end of 2017 tigers finished 2nd last
The first 6 rounds of 2018 for the tigers were
Roosters (2nd in 2017)
Storm (1st in 2017)
Broncos (3rd in 2017)
Eels (4th in 2017)
Storm (1st in 2017)
Manly (8th in 2017)
Tigers came out of that extremely tough start with 5 wins and 1 loss (which tigers should’ve won but the refs gave broncos an undeserved penalty to win the game)
I am most likely starting with Brimson and not at all worried about his early opponents
That is not really relevant, are you saying you think the Titans may be 5 wins from 6 this year with an opening draw of Raiders, Eels, Broncos, Roosters, Storm, Sea Eagles.
Against that opposition last year Brimson scored:
Raiders 36 (HB)
Sea Eagles 41 (FB)
Broncos 42 (FB)
Sea Eagles 24 (FB)
Storm 16 (FB) but only lasted 54 mins.
Broncos 5 (HB)
Eels 3 (FB) but only 42 mins
Storm 17 (only 42 mins from interchange)
he missed round 20 against the Roosters.
He is on my radar (I admit the sample size is small and has major limitations), but I may give a miss for first 6 weeks and upgrade a cheapie to him in 6 weeks for the byes and a better schedule.
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Lone Scout has tweeted that NRL Fantasy will open the week after the Australia Day weekend.
Enchanted Glossy Flamingo- Posts : 1170
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- Post n°246
Re: NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition
by Enchanted Glossy Flamingo Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:51 am
Fraser wrote:Lone Scout has tweeted that NRL Fantasy will open the week after the Australia Day weekend.
I, for one, am looking forward to making thousands of different iterations of my startup team
wolfking- Fanatics Immortal
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Fraser wrote:Lone Scout has tweeted that NRL Fantasy will open the week after the Australia Day weekend.
Jeez, time flies, but nevertheless, bring it on!
Ben Marlin- Posts : 1003
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I think it is definitely relevant since Titans currently and Tigers at the start of 2018 have/had a very similar situation. Tigers won 5/6 of those games so it is possible Titans can do the same. I just don't think you can accurately judge the difficulty of early fixtures. You may as well pick the best options for Fantasy regardless of fixtures since there is so much unknown about how the teams will perform.Iron Mike wrote:
That is not really relevant, are you saying you think the Titans may be 5 wins from 6 this year with an opening draw of Raiders, Eels, Broncos, Roosters, Storm, Sea Eagles.
Against that opposition last year Brimson scored:
Raiders 36 (HB)
Sea Eagles 41 (FB)
Broncos 42 (FB)
Sea Eagles 24 (FB)
Storm 16 (FB) but only lasted 54 mins.
Broncos 5 (HB)
Eels 3 (FB) but only 42 mins
Storm 17 (only 42 mins from interchange)
he missed round 20 against the Roosters.
He is on my radar (I admit the sample size is small and has major limitations), but I may give a miss for first 6 weeks and upgrade a cheapie to him in 6 weeks for the byes and a better schedule.
In the last decade an average of 36.1% teams drop out of the top 8 every year.
So approximately 3/8 teams from the finals last year will no longer be in the top 8.
Brimson is up against 5 teams from the top 8 in 2019. Therefore it is most likely (0.361 x 5 = 1.805) that 2 of the teams he is up against will not be in the finals this year.
In the last decade, 25% of teams who are in the top 8 after 6 rounds will end up missing the finals at the end of the year. So the start of the season is not the be all and end all. Often, top teams have a slower start to the season before finding form and finishing off strongly.
robelgordo- Fanatic
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I’m enjoying reading all this and have a shortlist of players going in the back of my head, but I can’t seriously look at a full draft squad until Feb, probably late-Feb. You guys are hardcore
No Worries- Moderator
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Not sure why everyone thinks Latrell will score better at fullback.
He will still be over weight
He will still be lazy
He will still only inject himself when he can be bothered
He still wont support his wingers
He wont be kicking
Oh but he might get some more base tackle stats.
Unless he has a massive change in his game and attitude he will at best maintain last years average. Deadwards 2.0
He will still be over weight
He will still be lazy
He will still only inject himself when he can be bothered
He still wont support his wingers
He wont be kicking
Oh but he might get some more base tackle stats.
Unless he has a massive change in his game and attitude he will at best maintain last years average. Deadwards 2.0
StormTrooper96- Posts : 9974
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- Post n°251
Re: NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition
by StormTrooper96 Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:39 am
No Worries wrote:Not sure why everyone thinks Latrell will score better at fullback.
He will still be over weight
He will still be lazy
He will still only inject himself when he can be bothered
He still wont support his wingers
He wont be kicking
Oh but he might get some more base tackle stats.
Unless he has a massive change in his game and attitude he will at best maintain this years average. Deadwards 2.0
I agree, that NRL article made some good points. He averaged 45 at ctr last year, kicking 89 goals, that equates to 8 pts per. He won't be goalkicking so that brings his average last year down to 37.
His average tackles of 9.7 is well over the FB average of about 4, that is about 14 extra points per game he will need to make off run metres, busts, tries and try assists.
For Mitchell, it may not sound that hard to make up 8 points per game, but then again that will only bring him to even at 45, he then needs to excel on from their to be worth the buy. He could still be a great Centre prospect, although, might be best to hold off in the early rounds as you factor in problems such as getting into a new role, with new teammates and the possibility he may even share the role with the likes of Gagai and Deouihi to start the year until he is used to it.
I think he will do well to average 45 for the year, although, I would like to see him go wild in the pre-season games and give me a reason to buy him at a Centre's price who can hopefully make up 50pts a game.
multiple.scoregasms- Fanatic
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- Post n°252
Re: NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition
by multiple.scoregasms Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:45 am
No Worries wrote:Not sure why everyone thinks Latrell will score better at fullback.
He will still be over weight
He will still be lazy
He will still only inject himself when he can be bothered
He still wont support his wingers
He wont be kicking
Oh but he might get some more base tackle stats.
Unless he has a massive change in his game and attitude he will at best maintain last years average. Deadwards 2.0
Agree with everything except this. Edwards just seemed like he forgot how to play football the first half of the year and his confidence was shot. After some time in reserve grade he was a quality player the back half of the year. He averaged 42.2 after returning and looked like the player we all expected him to be
No Worries- Moderator
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Yeah that was more of a troll taking the piss that anything else.
Iron Mike- Posts : 811
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No Worries wrote:Not sure why everyone thinks Latrell will score better at fullback.
He will still be over weight
He will still be lazy
He will still only inject himself when he can be bothered
He still wont support his wingers
He wont be kicking
Oh but he might get some more base tackle stats.
Unless he has a massive change in his game and attitude he will at best maintain last years average. Deadwards 2.0
Agree, without tackles and GK an average of 40 might be all that we can hope for. Not worth the starting price but will come into calculations at some stage during season.
Iron Mike- Posts : 811
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On Dedwards 2.0, that could be Brimson for first 6 rounds.
Would you be happy with a 25-30 average for 5-6 rounds out of your fullback to start the year, get frustrated and sell him, only for him to average 45 for the rest of the season.
Brimson will be a wait and see for me.
Would you be happy with a 25-30 average for 5-6 rounds out of your fullback to start the year, get frustrated and sell him, only for him to average 45 for the rest of the season.
Brimson will be a wait and see for me.
Iron Mike- Posts : 811
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Ben Marlin wrote:
I think it is definitely relevant since Titans currently and Tigers at the start of 2018 have/had a very similar situation. Tigers won 5/6 of those games so it is possible Titans can do the same. I just don't think you can accurately judge the difficulty of early fixtures. You may as well pick the best options for Fantasy regardless of fixtures since there is so much unknown about how the teams will perform.
In the last decade an average of 36.1% teams drop out of the top 8 every year.
So approximately 3/8 teams from the finals last year will no longer be in the top 8.
Brimson is up against 5 teams from the top 8 in 2019. Therefore it is most likely (0.361 x 5 = 1.805) that 2 of the teams he is up against will not be in the finals this year.
In the last decade, 25% of teams who are in the top 8 after 6 rounds will end up missing the finals at the end of the year. So the start of the season is not the be all and end all. Often, top teams have a slower start to the season before finding form and finishing off strongly.
Not sure any of this is relevant, Tigers finished 9th in 2018. I will be very surprised if Titans don't finish last again this year. Titans are not the defensive side that the Tigers were in 2018, they are far from it.
No Worries- Moderator
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Ben Marlin wrote:
I think it is definitely relevant since Titans currently and Tigers at the start of 2018 have/had a very similar situation. Tigers won 5/6 of those games so it is possible Titans can do the same. I just don't think you can accurately judge the difficulty of early fixtures. You may as well pick the best options for Fantasy regardless of fixtures since there is so much unknown about how the teams will perform.
Pretty sure Milchy responds to this in the same vein quite succinctly every year just without the stats
Ben Marlin wrote:
In the last decade an average of 36.1% teams drop out of the top 8 every year.
So approximately 3/8 teams from the finals last year will no longer be in the top 8.
Brimson is up against 5 teams from the top 8 in 2019. Therefore it is most likely (0.361 x 5 = 1.805) that 2 of the teams he is up against will not be in the finals this year.
That's a long winded way of saying Broncos & Eels
Ben Marlin wrote:
In the last decade, 25% of teams who are in the top 8 after 6 rounds will end up missing the finals at the end of the year. So the start of the season is not the be all and end all. Often, top teams have a slower start to the season before finding form and finishing off strongly.
So 2 teams ? Couldn't you just have said the Tigers & Dragons ?
Milchcow- Moderator
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I'm just generally against using fixtures to pick players, especially for your initial team.
Trades are short enough as it is, without having guys you deliberately plan on trading in/out after a few games. Even if you get your prediction right on impact of fixtures on scores, its probably not worth the trade to get the player out/in after his good/bad fixtures are over.
And all it takes is a couple of injuries/suspensions and you have to use your trades elsewhere rather than the planned one.
And that assumes your predictions right in the first place. I still take great joy in remembering a bunch of people captain Teddy round 1 2018 because of his "easy" game against the Tigers and got to double his massive 29 points.
Picking form in round 1 is especially tricky and I wouldn't trust most of your opinions on who is an easy opponent
No Worries- Moderator
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Milchy wrote:
I'm just generally against using fixtures to pick players, especially for your initial team.
Trades are short enough as it is, without having guys you deliberately plan on trading in/out after a few games. Even if you get your prediction right on impact of fixtures on scores, its probably not worth the trade to get the player out/in after his good/bad fixtures are over.
And all it takes is a couple of injuries/suspensions and you have to use your trades elsewhere rather than the planned one.
And that assumes your predictions right in the first place. I still take great joy in remembering a bunch of people captain Teddy round 1 2018 because of his "easy" game against the Tigers and got to double his massive 29 points.
Picking form in round 1 is especially tricky and I wouldn't trust most of your opinions on who is an easy opponent
He even made that taxi ad to promote how big he was going to go against his old team.
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- Post n°260
Re: NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition
by StormTrooper96 Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:08 pm
If Fantasy is meant to be up an running the week after the Australia day weekend does that mean 27th Jan or 3rd Feb?