NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition

It will be interesting to see Mitchell playing FB

Chewie wrote:It will be interesting to see Mitchell playing FB

I'm pretty tempted to get him in my side.

Chewie wrote:It will be interesting to see Mitchell playing FB

I think I would like to see his pre-season games before making a concrete decision. He can get lazy so I expect him to go missing here and there; however, you would have to think Bennett gets the best out of him. Old Wayne loves a fixer upper. Plus Latrell played alongside Teddy so you would think he would've learnt a thing or two. I think he would rely heavily on breaking tackles though because he isn't the quickest back youve ever seen. Would lose GK, probably make up for it in kick return metres but. He reminds me of a Karmichael Hunt type runner

my tv broke wrote:

Staggs is locked in right centre.

The only real question over our starting 13 is who starts at lock. Would assume that is TPJ but could be Carrigan tbh.

If its Carrigan I will be all over him. I recall there being discussion last season of his leadership potential, future captain etc, so would make sense that he gets a shot.

Iron Mike wrote:Think I may give Brimson a miss to start:

Titans first 6 weeks is:

Raiders A
Eels H
Broncos H
Roosters A
Storm A
Sea Eagles A

Should be facing a 0-6 record. However, high tackle count forwards should go alright. Ryan James appears a safe bet.

A lot of Brimson's appeal is his ability to run the length of the field in broken play to score a try. This often happened in one sided games where his team was getting hammered and the game had opened up.

While James is lower priced and appears good value, he is coming back from a knee reconstruction. How many players coming back from that have scored well? I can't think of any, but there are plenty of examples of top players that weren't nearly as good when they returned from that injury.

Chewie wrote:It will be interesting to see Mitchell playing FB

Averaged 45 as a center getting very few touches per game, but doing lots with that limited involvement. What is a realistic expectation at Fullback? 50, 55?

Hot off the press, Latrell playing for Rabbitohs this season https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/01/13/rabbitohs-announce-latrell-mitchell-signing-for-2020/

mattnz wrote:

A lot of Brimson's appeal is his ability to run the length of the field in broken play to score a try. This often happened in one sided games where his team was getting hammered and the game had opened up.

While James is lower priced and appears good value, he is coming back from a knee reconstruction. How many players coming back from that have scored well? I can't think of any, but there are plenty of examples of top players that weren't nearly as good when they returned from that injury.

Not sure I agree with Brimson

He only scored 4 tries in 2019 (only two of those were at fullback)

His first try came against Cowboys where he was number #14 where he definitely did not run the length of the field - the score was 6-0 to Cowboys at the time of Brimson's try

His second try came against Sharks where he was #6 and he run 40 to 50 metres to score his try (not the length of the field though) - the score was 10-6 to Sharks at the time of Brimson's try

His third try came against Manly where he played #1 and he pretty much fell over the line after a great run from Kelly - the score was 12-6 to Manly at the time of Brimson's try

His final try came against Warriors where he played #1 and ran about 20 to 30 metres to score his try (not length of the field though) - the score was 24-14 at the time of Brimson's try

https://twitter.com/CKennedy80/status/1216603862187929601

Blindside wrote:https://twitter.com/CKennedy80/status/1216603862187929601

https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/01/13/what-mitchell-move-means-for-nrl-fantasy/

The article confirmed
Billy Smith will start at $425,000
Ryan Hall will start at $450,000
Kyle Flanagan will start at $533,000
Adam Douehi will start at $457,000

Ben Marlin wrote:
https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/01/13/what-mitchell-move-means-for-nrl-fantasy/

The article confirmed
Billy Smith will start at $425,000
Ryan Hall will start at $450,000
Kyle Flanagan will start at $533,000
Adam Douehi will start at $457,000

Now Milch can work his magic

- >insert Mr Burns excellent GIF <-

Predicted prices using ownership discount looking pretty reliable then:

Billy Smith: Predicted of 458k, actual 425k
Ryan Hall: Predicted 429k, actual 450k
Kyle Flanagan: Predicted 517k, actual 533k
Adam Doueihi, Predicted 460k, actual 457k

Maybe one slight difference in magic number??

Ben Marlin wrote:
If that is the case it will likely mean
Thompson at fullback
Jennings and Nofoaluma on the wings
Mbye and Momirovski in the centres
Reynolds and Walters sharing the hooker spot

Pretty soon on imo. Still looking to sign a fullback (apparently) which would see a few shuffle positions.

WT2K wrote:

Pretty soon on imo. Still looking to sign a fullback (apparently) which would see a few shuffle positions.

AJ maybe?

Looks like the Magic Number is around 14,100

Camo123 wrote:Predicted prices using ownership discount looking pretty reliable then:

Billy Smith: Predicted of 458k, actual 425k
Ryan Hall: Predicted 429k, actual 450k
Kyle Flanagan: Predicted 517k, actual 533k
Adam Doueihi, Predicted 460k, actual 457k

Maybe one slight difference in magic number??

It wouldn’t be a difference in magic number since 2/4 players are above the predicted price and 2/4 players are below the predicted price

Not a bad effort though!

Milchy wrote:Are people planning on having Bradman Best in their 17?

His few scores last year don't really excite. I know people are assuming he'll move from the wing to centre. But are people actually expecting good scores from him or are they just chucking him in because he's cheap

I always lean towards 1 cheap centre and praying for 25 points from them until a reasonable option shows up

This is my guesstimate...

With a Magic Number of 14100 (no ownership discount)

Billy Smith (avg 43): $425,000 (2 games - 30% discount)
Ryan Hall (avg 35.2): $450,000 (6 games - 9% discount)
Kyle Flanagan (avg 38.4): $533,000 (8 games - 1.5% discount)
Adam Douehi (avg 32.4) :$457,000 (12 games - no discount)


Haas would be 956k

@StormTrooper96
Thanks for changing your avatar. The last one nagged me.

Of the 4 players whose price we have, 3 played less than 10 games and are due a discount for that

Doueihi played 12 games and if priced purely an average would be a MN of 14105. He finished the year with 1.4 ownership, so possibly he has had some discount based on that.

Hopefully we get more players tomorrow