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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 8

    Iron Mike
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    Post by Iron Mike Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:55 am

    White Lightning wrote:To me Mann looked disinterested. He never tried to get involved & when he did get the ball he was hesitant & slow off the mark. In the nines as soon as he got the ball he exploded off the mark. I guess it doesn't help when Pearce decides he'll just hog the ball.

    Mann didn't look disinterested just the one half of football didn't go his way. I see he was playing left side which Ponga favours. He will get his tackles and a fair few tackle breaks with the odd try/try assist. Up against a new Warriors right edge in Round 1 with Fusitua and Herbert playing centre and wing respectively.

    For the record it was 6-6 at halftime and Mann and Pearce only played first half. Klemmer only played first 20 minutes.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:22 am

    Donkeyyyyyy wrote:I mean.. I don't hate it.. 172k ITB

    Friend
    Knight Carrigan
    Fifita Lelilua Williams
    Moses Drinkwater
    Lomax Aubbs
    Papy Aekins Leleisiuao

    Koro Brailey Mofo Hess
    Stimson Luai Watkins 246k Winger

    Your only captainable players are Moses & maybe Friend/Fifita and as others said the 700k+ in EMG from Stimson/Watkins isn't probably wise spending even if they score well because then you probably want their scores in your 17


    Last edited by Camo123 on Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:43 am; edited 1 time in total
    Blain
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    Post by Blain Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:38 am

    Warriors Update FYI;

    Fusitua will play centres, with Herbert likely on the wing. I see value in the Fus, was ordinary there a couple years ago, but I think with his extra experience he can make a good go at it. Has the skill and size to make it work. Was pretty average and under used last season, so is cheap. Hopefully he becomes DP.

    Isiah Papalii will play in "the middle," so I'd assume will be lock (he's too small for prop). I believe Curran will be in the second row with Harris, unless they see him as a small prop/bench lock and play Blair there instead... Can never rule out SK's stupid ideas with Blair.

    Blair and Burr should be playing prop/lock sub to fill Afoa's and Tevaga's gap. Frei was looking like a benchy until injury hit him this weekend, the new man signed from QLD cup Taunoa-Brown might take his spot (20 minute role probably).

    Lawton and Egan will likely share the hooker role, both got through Saturday's trial OK.

    Can't see CHT beating Nikorima to the 6 jersey, next to old man Green, even if he looks the better player.
    Iron Mike
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    Post by Iron Mike Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:15 am

    Blain wrote:Warriors Update FYI;

    Fusitua will play centres, with Herbert likely on the wing. I see value in the Fus, was ordinary there a couple years ago, but I think with his extra experience he can make a good go at it. Has the skill and size to make it work. Was pretty average and under used last season, so is cheap. Hopefully he becomes DP.

    Isiah Papalii will play in "the middle," so I'd assume will be lock (he's too small for prop). I believe Curran will be in the second row with Harris, unless they see him as a small prop/bench lock and play Blair there instead... Can never rule out SK's stupid ideas with Blair.

    Blair and Burr should be playing prop/lock sub to fill Afoa's and Tevaga's gap. Frei was looking like a benchy until injury hit him this weekend, the new man signed from QLD cup Taunoa-Brown might take his spot (20 minute role probably).

    Lawton and Egan will likely share the hooker role, both got through Saturday's trial OK.

    Can't see CHT beating Nikorima to the 6 jersey, next to old man Green, even if he looks the better player.

    Yeah that's the way I see it too.

    1.RTS
    2.Maumalo
    3.Hiku
    4.Fusitua
    5.Herbert
    6.Nikorima
    7.Green
    8.Pasi
    9.Lawton
    10.LAM
    11.Curran
    12.Harris
    13.Blair

    14.Egan
    15.Burr
    16.Papali'i
    17.Taunoa Brown/Pulu

    Not sure if I left anyone out but Tevaga to be eased back via the bench.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:27 am

    Curran would be a nice pick-up if he gets the edge role
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:28 am

    Milchcow wrote:
    Some trial stats updated here

    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1175-2020-trial-stats

    Thanks for this. I see you've posted a couple times these are available on the NRL site - where exactly? I couldnt find them on the weekend. Cheers.
    Iron Mike
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    Post by Iron Mike Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:32 am

    Made two changes to my side off the back of the trials:

    Friend and Aubusson in vs NBrown and Capewell out.

    Current draft:

    Friend
    Hass, Carrigan
    Taumololo, DFifita, ?
    Cleary, Mann
    Aubusson, Lomax
    Papenhuyzen, Drinkwater, Aekins

    Api, BBrailey, Curran, Musgrove

    Luai, Magoulias, ? , ?

    Undecided on 3rd Second Rower. Have $960K to spend on three players.

    Option 1: Lucy with 2 x $228K players + $1k
    Option 2: Hess/JWilliams/Tapine ($486k to play with) with 1 x $228K and 1 x $246K
    Option 3: 2 X $246K with $468K to spend on second rower. (Stimson + Cash)

    Thoughts on best option?


    Last edited by Iron Mike on Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:41 am; edited 1 time in total
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:33 am

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    Thanks for this. I see you've posted a couple times these are available on the NRL site - where exactly? I couldnt find them on the weekend. Cheers.

    https://www.nrl.com/draw/?competition=119

    Then click on each game and click on player stats tab and scroll across until fantasy points. The minutes are all incorrect though

    I'm pretty sure they weren't available for the trials on desktop site straight after the game but were on the NRL app but they've updated a few times since then. Some still aren't available on website though
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:40 am

    Donkeyyyyyy wrote:Maybe it's the beers or just a bit of too much time on my hands but I've decided to take a bit more of a look at the end game and what my ideal 18 and thought I might share some of my findings on here. For those who don't like looking at numbers TL;DR at the end for you.

    To cut long story slightly less longer I am basing my findings on having my final 18 come R18 with 2 trades in hand. This also works on having all of the cows milked by R15 for the second of the 4 trade rounds.

    Based on this year's prices and targeting 20 trades through to R14 and to max trade through the R15-17 you would need to earn $268K from each cow. Taking Haas's earning from last season out of the equation (coz let's be frank can you see anyone doing THAT again this year?), if you picked the top 20 earning cash cows from last season their avg earning was $287K meaning you would have to take almost every one of the top earning cows to get in the best final team for the end of the year.

    D'uh! But hear me out, of those top 20 cows most of the time they just won't fit into your team's dynamics. Would anyone have had all of To:o, Papy, Staggs, Bird & Garrick? Burr, Martin, Lawrie, Young, Whitbread & Uele? Cust was a top 10 earner and did any serious team have him?

    Of course this does not factor in the possibility of trading in guns at their basement price after a few poor scores but even if that saves 500k it still works out to be about $240k earned per cow. Which is a fair stretch from the consensus $150k.

    This all has me inspired to run my WAG's team as just going balls to the wall nothing but cows with only 1/2 guns, maybe not even being Haas. The lack of expectation of this seasons cows turned guns like Hass, Nikora, Bateman could make massive gains come the last 10 rounds over those who end up short on cash.

    TL;DR Pick every one of the best cows if you have any hope of scoring 1000's regularly again this season.

    Good post mate, I suspected this might be the case, but hadn't run any numbers. That said, there seems to be more (supposed) value this year than last. It feels a bit more like 2018 to start the year. I have no numbers to back this up, only a memory severely affected by my 20s and 30s...
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:44 am

    trubluwanksta wrote:

    If Stimson starts then he will be a decent earner of cash and should be on at least the bench of most squads.

    Watkins imo will be a slow burner. He’s a defensive centre.

    Musgrove seemed solid in the trial. With Packer out he probably gets a bump in minutes so should earn some cash.

    BillyMagoo - depends on whether he starts or not. Will earn cash either way but probably see him for about a 30 min stint? If Graham is out round one then he will start = must have for a cow.

    Kolomatagi will be interesting. Probably gets similar mins to BillyMagoo

    At Stimsons price if you have him he has to be in your 17. No point benching him.

    BillyMagoo - just make sure you dont fall into the trap of picking a guy who will start round 1 and then back to the bench thereafter (I have no idea how long Graham is out BTW).

    Like Musgrove, like potentially taking a punt on Koloamatagi

    I'll avoid Watkins. C's need attacking stats to be relevant in fantasy. Dont see him getting many with the Titans.
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:48 am

    Blain wrote:Warriors Update FYI;

    Fusitua will play centres, with Herbert likely on the wing. I see value in the Fus, was ordinary there a couple years ago, but I think with his extra experience he can make a good go at it. Has the skill and size to make it work. Was pretty average and under used last season, so is cheap. Hopefully he becomes DP.

    Isiah Papalii will play in "the middle," so I'd assume will be lock (he's too small for prop). I believe Curran will be in the second row with Harris, unless they see him as a small prop/bench lock and play Blair there instead... Can never rule out SK's stupid ideas with Blair.

    Blair and Burr should be playing prop/lock sub to fill Afoa's and Tevaga's gap. Frei was looking like a benchy until injury hit him this weekend, the new man signed from QLD cup Taunoa-Brown might take his spot (20 minute role probably).

    Lawton and Egan will likely share the hooker role, both got through Saturday's trial OK.

    Can't see CHT beating Nikorima to the 6 jersey, next to old man Green, even if he looks the better player.

    This is how I see it at the Warriors too, although you'd be a brave man to pick whatKearney will do with Burr, Blair, I'Pap... to be honest I'd be fucken suprised if Kearney knows at this stage....

    Either way the Warriors will get [umped this year, and there will be few in this team who are immune to being benched or booted... I'd be concerned about paying decent money for any warriors player - the only one who has any appeal for me is Curran if he gets a starting gig.
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:50 am

    [quote="Camo123"]

    https://www.nrl.com/draw/?competition=119

    Then click on each game and click on player stats tab and scroll across until fantasy points. The minutes are all incorrect though

    I'm pretty sure they weren't available for the trials on desktop site straight after the game but were on the NRL app but they've updated a few times since then. Some still aren't available on website though[/quote

    Awesome, thank you. ALthough minutes is perhaps the key stat lol. One off fantasy scores dont mean too much to me, but minutes when a team is looking close to full strength seems important.

    Friend played 75 right ? with Verrils on the bench? Kudos to the people here that posted about 1000 times that would be the case Smile
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:52 am

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    Minutes should be right for the WCC game but not for the pre-season trials as all the starters are labelled at 80 mins and interchange are all labelled at 0

    Yeah Friend played 75 mins and Verrills only came on for last 5 mins
    Loomer
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    Post by Loomer Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:59 am

    If I get Haas I think I'll have to go without Lolo. Also have no gun half atm. Going with Friend and Koro BBrailey and Levi on the bench as better value imo
    Pookus McFly
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    Post by Pookus McFly Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:15 am

    Curran playing second row would be disaster for fantasy. I’ve just had a tinker with my team if I put him in. I now have have Moses and Cleary as my halves with Burns and Aubbs as my centres, team barely took a hit. It will be my guns vs your guns if this eventuates.
    Ponga for prez
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    Post by Ponga for prez Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:22 am

    Who do we think will be the biggest money makers in the first few round? Tossing up between putting a gun (arrow) in my team versus someone like Guerra and su’a on bench.
    Rank these guys in terms of money-making potential.
    Su’a, Williams, Hess, Levi, Knight, carrigan, mofo, stimson
    Pookus McFly
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    Post by Pookus McFly Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:23 am

    Pookus McFly wrote:Curran playing second row would be disaster for fantasy. I’ve just had a tinker with my team if I put him in. I now have have Moses and Cleary as my halves with Burns and Aubbs as my centres, team barely took a hit. It will be my guns vs your guns if this eventuates.

    Actually I went back to just one gun in each of HLF and CTR position and finally brought in Tedesco.
    It’s amazing what the extra money does Rolling Laugh
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    Post by Pookus McFly Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:26 am

    Ponga for prez wrote:Who do we think will be the biggest money makers in the first few round? Tossing up between putting a gun (arrow) in my team versus someone like Guerra and su’a on bench.
    Rank these guys in terms of money-making potential.
    Su’a, Williams, Hess, Levi, Knight, carrigan, mofo, stimson

    Guerra (if playing 80 on the edge), Carrigan (if playing lock), Stimson (if playing 80 on the edge and kicking goals), Williams (if getting Gals minutes), Su’a (if getting 80 mins), Hess (if starting and getting 80), Levi (if no backup hooker named), Knight (if moved to lock or playing more than 50), Mofo

    Razz
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    Post by my tv broke Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:28 am

    Ponga for prez wrote:Who do we think will be the biggest money makers in the first few round? Tossing up between putting a gun (arrow) in my team versus someone like Guerra and su’a on bench.
    Rank these guys in terms of money-making potential.
    Su’a, Williams, Hess, Levi, Knight, carrigan, mofo, stimson

    Tough to rank with so many unknowns. They all have potential to score well above their price, if they get the roles we want.

    I have six of them in my squad at the moment... that will probably have to change as not all will get named in the spots i/we hope ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I am not that interested in Mofo, and have my suspicions on Knight.
    Iron Mike
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    Post by Iron Mike Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:35 am

    Ponga for prez wrote:Who do we think will be the biggest money makers in the first few round? Tossing up between putting a gun (arrow) in my team versus someone like Guerra and su’a on bench.
    Rank these guys in terms of money-making potential.
    Su’a, Williams, Hess, Levi, Knight, carrigan, mofo, stimson

    I would rank them:

    Carrigan, Williams, Stimson, Knight, Su'a, Mofo, Levi, Hess. I have only the first two, and not sure I have room for Stimson also.

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