NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 8

StormTrooper96 wrote:Just did a draft with Lolo and Haas in it... Boy was hard to fit in enough viable players... Mind you I also still had Friend, Burns, Fifita.

My thinking this year is

HOK: Load up on midrangers
FRF: Haas Carrigan (Locked in and won't be changing, unless TLT says otherwise)
2RF: Mid Range Heaven
HLF: Gun Midranger
CTR: Gun Cow
WFB: Mid Range Heaven

BENCH: Mid Range Heaven
EMG: Cows

Only three guns? You can do better mate!

StormTrooper96 wrote:Just did a draft with Lolo and Haas in it... Boy was hard to fit in enough viable players... Mind you I also still had Friend, Burns, Fifita.

My thinking this year is

HOK: Load up on midrangers
FRF: Haas Carrigan (Locked in and won't be changing, unless TLT says otherwise)
2RF: Mid Range Heaven
HLF: Gun Midranger
CTR: Gun Cow
WFB: Mid Range Heaven

BENCH: Mid Range Heaven
EMG: Cows

In years gone by I've always looked at middies as a trap and this year I've built a team with so many of em it's not funny. It's kind of off putting looking at it due to being something I've not done before and being of the "gun/cow" train of thought but I'm gonna stick with it. I need to change things up a bit after a horrocious season last year.

Basically looking at one keeper/gun in each of the front three lines and then hope that the rest of em pay off.

The downside to this thinking is that if the majority of my middies flop then I'm gonna be in a fair bit of trouble.

What is Levi going to average?

Mulvy wrote:What is Levi going to average?

50 +/-

Mearcats wrote:

I guess that's the question right? I personally don't see him being under 55 mark. He may not also average over the 60 mark but which other second rowers do we expect to? His consistency is too hard to ignore.

For interests sake MS, who would be your top 5 and what do you expect em to average over the season?

Id think Lolo, Murray, Jurbo will all be up there, rounded out by two of Fifita, Matterson, Brown and Bateman (depending on how he returns from injury).

I have gun second rowers in tiers. How many make my final 17 will depend on balance but I see it like this

Tier 1: Bateman and Taumalolo 60+ average

Tier 2: Jurbo, Murray, Arrow, Fifita(80 minutes), Matterson, JFH(lock) 50-60 average

Tier 3: Tevaga, Nathan Brown, Crichton(edge) 45-55 average

Mearcats wrote:

In years gone by I've always looked at middies as a trap and this year I've built a team with so many of em it's not funny. It's kind of off putting looking at it due to being something I've not done before and being of the "gun/cow" train of thought but I'm gonna stick with it. I need to change things up a bit after a horrocious season last year.

Basically looking at one keeper/gun in each of the front three lines and then hope that the rest of em pay off.

The downside to this thinking is that if the majority of my middies flop then I'm gonna be in a fair bit of trouble.

There's just so many mid-range/below keeper priced guys that are too hard to ignore

HOK: Friend, Koro, Brailey
FRF: Knight, Carrigan, Mofo
2RF: Fifita, Su'A, Lowe, Williams, Leilua, Garner
HLF: Drinkwater, Brimson
CTR: NOTHING!!!!!!
WFB: Papy, Brimson, Drinkwater, Isaako

Like it is just too hard to ignore some of those guys that look like taking a bigger step this year/are underpriced/looking at more minutes; once you fill your team you're left with all these mid rangers and you can't help but think that at least 2 of them will fail.

There's a lot to like about the Taumalolo argument.
Here's what I don't like:

2017: After 2 big games, he then missed rounds 3 & 4 (suspension from memory). So ultimately scored 140 points across 4 weeks.

2018: Averaged 45.2 across the opening 5 weeks - including 3 scores under 40. If he's your C - that's a killer

2019: Started strong R1 (75), then injured with a 17 and out for the next 5 weeks (so you had to sell). Netted you a 46 average if he was your C over the opening 2 weeks.

When does it start to become a pattern, rather than bad luck?

ARey named as captain. Could be a decent POD. Could be a decent pick up with rd12 in mind when Mann has peaked/been dropped.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I have gun second rowers in tiers. How many make my final 17 will depend on balance but I see it like this

Tier 1: Bateman and Taumalolo 60+ average

Tier 2: Jurbo, Murray, Arrow, Fifita(80 minutes), Matterson, JFH(lock) 50-60 average

Tier 3: Tevaga, Nathan Brown, Crichton(edge) 45-55 average

Not too far off where I have em pegged although I'd have Jurbo and Murray(utilisation dependent) nudging that tier one.

Can Robbo please unleash/unlock Crichton. Silly bugger should be so much higher up this list but can't help agree with where you have him.

Mulvy wrote:ARey named as captain. Could be a decent POD. Could be a decent pick up with rd12 in mind when Mann has peaked/been dropped.

Brings up an interesting subject of who we should be targeting as early upgrade targets. How long can you get away with shitty centres, wfbs or halves before you get burnt? If you start without an uber gun like Haas, Smith, Taumalolo etc are they first priority?

Mearcats wrote:

Not too far off where I have em pegged although I'd have Jurbo and Murray(utilisation dependent) nudging that tier one.

Can Robbo please unleash/unlock Crichton. Silly bugger should be so much higher up this list but can't help agree with where you have him.

Crichton could easily be tier 1 based on potential, I don't think we see it at the Roosters with too much strike power across the board he just simply doesn't get enough ball

easytiger wrote:There's a lot to like about the Taumalolo argument.
Here's what I don't like:

2017: After 2 big games, he then missed rounds 3 & 4 (suspension from memory). So ultimately scored 140 points across 4 weeks.

2018: Averaged 45.2 across the opening 5 weeks - including 3 scores under 40. If he's your C - that's a killer

2019: Started strong R1 (75), then injured with a 17 and out for the next 5 weeks (so you had to sell). Netted you a 46 average if he was your C over the opening 2 weeks.

When does it start to become a pattern, rather than bad luck?

Not discounting it by any means but same can be said for many. Bateman last year, Brown last year and the year before, Crichton last year.

I'm not locked and loaded on Lolo yet (haven't had him once in my whole two drafts) but I'm leaning closer to doing so

Ash Taylor averaged 43 last 6 games or better 45 between Rd 8-12. I read mention of him having leg injury early season or was that later. Anyway possibly represents good value??

easytiger wrote:There's a lot to like about the Taumalolo argument.
Here's what I don't like:

2017: After 2 big games, he then missed rounds 3 & 4 (suspension from memory). So ultimately scored 140 points across 4 weeks.

2018: Averaged 45.2 across the opening 5 weeks - including 3 scores under 40. If he's your C - that's a killer

2019: Started strong R1 (75), then injured with a 17 and out for the next 5 weeks (so you had to sell). Netted you a 46 average if he was your C over the opening 2 weeks.

When does it start to become a pattern, rather than bad luck?

Can't say that I see a pattern myself.

If the pattern is that its something different each year, then it seems like he should start this year on fire.

Bored at work so I thought I would look through the players pool and pick out a few players and doa a little analysis on their value. Here are a few players I haven't seen anyone mention that could be handy POD's in anyone's team. They are a bit awkwardly priced but could still be underdone.

1. Finucane (638K) - Priced at a break even of 44 and averaged 44.9 last year.
This man is a tackle bot and has an engine to match. With news of Hectic Cheese missing 4-6 weeks (R1-4) he could be asked to take on a bit more of the load/minutes in the middle to start the year. His average when playing over 60 minutes in 2019 is 51.2. I can't see him magically improving on that but could be a nice POD to get you 50+ over the first few rounds and an easy jump on to Haas for those not starting?

2. Fitzgibbon (575K) - Priced at 40 points; 2019 average of 37.9.
This bloke had a downer of a year last year. Didn't seem interested, was on the wrong end of the MRC a few times and had a couple niggling injuries. His 2019 average of 37.9 is well below his 2017 average of 45.7 and 2018 average of 49.9. Maybe 2019 was an outlier and we see him and Ponga strike up that combo again? Can he push 50's?? Could be about 6-10 points underpriced and would be a great POD if he can.

3. Kaufusi (558K) - Priced at 38 points; 2019 average of 37.5.
Can this mean reach his 2017/2018 heights again where he averaged 45.5 and 45.2 respectively. His try scoring ability was well below his previous years. In 2019 he amassed 1 try compared to 8 and 5 in 2017 and 2018. This pick seems a little more reliant on his ability to score tries but perhaps he can find that again alongside Hughes this year and get back up around 45 points.

Of these 3 Fitzgibbon probably excites me the most and could possibly be 10 points underpriced.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Brings up an interesting subject of who we should be targeting as early upgrade targets. How long can you get away with shitty centres, wfbs or halves before you get burnt? If you start without an uber gun like Haas, Smith, Taumalolo etc are they first priority?

Starting with Haas and Lolo, I'm thinking McInnes, plays rd12 and guaranteed you want him in your final 17. Cook as soon as I can afford him. Smith can wait as his scores are usually so consistent and his price remains steady would make a good rd13 pickup. Then whichever of Ted, Turbo, Ponga, RTS drops in value. Then Matterson, Brown, ARey are on my radar. Tevaga, SJ, Bateman, AFifita could make good rd 13-16 pick ups although hopefully one them is cheaper at some stage earlier. Actually Bateman would be priority regardless of rd 12.

my tv broke wrote:

Can't say that I see a pattern myself.

If the pattern is that its something different each year, then it seems like he should start this year on fire.

Admittedly, the pattern is purely a Fantasy ownership pattern.
i.e. If you ran him as Captain at the start of any of those three years, then problems were heading your way.
2017 - Lot's of $ stuck on the bench
2018 - Lot's of $ lost in value to start (vs what non-owners might pick up)
2019 - Lost $, lost trade

If it's a Haas & Lolo ownership scenario, then no real issue.
But if it's a Lolo instead of Haas scenario - then maybe enough for some jitters?

Starting to think only price point I can go if no Haas is SST and if starts like last season that could be fine

Done Knight and Luciano out allows me SST and Horsburger or Capewell or max 470k any on bench and not looking that terrible

Mearcats wrote:

Not discounting it by any means but same can be said for many. Bateman last year, Brown last year and the year before, Crichton last year.

I'm not locked and loaded on Lolo yet (haven't had him once in my whole two drafts) but I'm leaning closer to doing so

I do have him currently.
I just see more upside in having him as an alternative to Haas, whereas I think there's better upside elsewhere if you are running Haas.
Problem is, it feels like a lot more risk of him not being on the field

StormTrooper96 wrote:Bored at work so I thought I would look through the players pool and pick out a few players and doa a little analysis on their value. Here are a few players I haven't seen anyone mention that could be handy POD's in anyone's team. They are a bit awkwardly priced but could still be underdone.

1. Finucane (638K) - Priced at a break even of 44 and averaged 44.9 last year.
This man is a tackle bot and has an engine to match. With news of Hectic Cheese missing 4-6 weeks (R1-4) he could be asked to take on a bit more of the load/minutes in the middle to start the year. His average when playing over 60 minutes in 2019 is 51.2. I can't see him magically improving on that but could be a nice POD to get you 50+ over the first few rounds and an easy jump on to Haas for those not starting?

2. Fitzgibbon (575K) - Priced at 40 points; 2019 average of 37.9.
This bloke had a downer of a year last year. Didn't seem interested, was on the wrong end of the MRC a few times and had a couple niggling injuries. His 2019 average of 37.9 is well below his 2017 average of 45.7 and 2018 average of 49.9. Maybe 2019 was an outlier and we see him and Ponga strike up that combo again? Can he push 50's?? Could be about 6-10 points underpriced and would be a great POD if he can.

3. Kaufusi (558K) - Priced at 38 points; 2019 average of 37.5.
Can this mean reach his 2017/2018 heights again where he averaged 45.5 and 45.2 respectively. His try scoring ability was well below his previous years. In 2019 he amassed 1 try compared to 8 and 5 in 2017 and 2018. This pick seems a little more reliant on his ability to score tries but perhaps he can find that again alongside Hughes this year and get back up around 45 points.

Of these 3 Fitzgibbon probably excites me the most and could possibly be 10 points underpriced.

Kaufusi is interesting. With Smith never going Croft's side Kaufusi misses out as well. Still he won't be getting good ball from Cronk again and Munster will be the dominant half so possibly some value but probably not enough?