NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 8

Where I do like Lolo is as a Captaincy alternative to Haas.

If I look at ceiling scores as being over 65, middles as being 45-65 and poor as under 44:
Key: Average for that scoring bracket (number of times)

Haas
66+:  79.8 (9)
45-65: 58.0 (11)
44-: N/A

Lolo
66+: 80.0 (7)
45-65: 57.0 (8 )
44-: 31.7 (3)

The major difference based on last year is the floor performances with Lolo (one injury affected, two that weren't).
Otherwise for a $125K difference in price, it seems a bit of a no-brainer unless you think either is going to exceed or greatly fall from last years output

I think that just looking at Haas's scores for the whole of 2019 is tricky.

His lower scores (50, 51, and 51) came early on in the season. After he played origin in round 12, he only had three sub 60 scores for the rest of the year (55, 57, and 59). I'm not saying that will repeat itself at all, he was literally just starting his NRL career at that point. (save for a few low min games in 2018)

Taumalolo has always had a few low scores in him, sometimes the coach drops his mins, some times he just has a quiet night. We are yet to see that from Haas.. will we? Coaches will have studied the tape all off-season...

I reckon the captaincy 'break even' is around 55. If your captain goes below 55 you feel disappointed. 55 to 60 is a bit tedious but you take it, over 60 and you're happy.

Sione confirmed grade 3 MCL as Ponga stated yesterday

Usual 6-10 week injury but from Knights website they are expecting it to be 6 weeks

my tv broke wrote:I think that just looking at Haas's scores for the whole of 2019 is tricky.

His lower scores (50, 51, and 51) came early on in the season. After he played origin in round 12, he only had three sub 60 scores for the rest of the year (55, 57, and 59). I'm not saying that will repeat itself at all, he was literally just starting his NRL career at that point. (save for a few low min games in 2018)

Taumalolo has always had a few low scores in him, sometimes the coach drops his mins, some times he just has a quiet night. We are yet to see that from Haas.. will we? Coaches will have studied the tape all off-season...

I reckon the captaincy 'break even' is around 55. If your captain goes below 55 you feel disappointed. 55 to 60 is a bit tedious but you take it, over 60 and you're happy.

I think you're absolutely correct. It's very difficult to know what to expect in his second year - aside from the eye test - where he looks like he should beast it again.

I think we all expect him to play SOO this year, so I can't help but assume the coaching staff are anticipating this as well and this may require some closer minute managing - he's only 20 in the most confrontational position in a strong contact sport. I'd be surprised if he ends up the top scoring Fantasy player this year (only one player has done that in the last 7 years, and even then his averaged dropped 4 points).

But then, I would've been surpised last year if you told me Haas would be top the averages for the season...

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Remember Tevaga is out for a bit though...

I think you are right - Blair could start on edge and Curran gets bumped from the 13. Otherwise Curran probably starts.

I reckon Kearney will start Burr.

It scares me more to start without Haas compared to Taumalolo. I’d love to have both but as others have said that depends on enough viable good cheapie options!

There is more value in the second row compared to from row though I reckon.

I’ll trade Haas out over origin time to Taumalolo and I’ll look at getting McInnes in too.

It more scares me running without David Fifita than Taumalolo.

Guys like Luciano, Williams etc.... should be able to make enough for you to upgrade to another gun as well.

Sorry if already posted, but this is a bit more on Savea coming to league. Great for Samoa if it happens. Even better if both him and SBW play for them

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12311467

Geeze Cowboys vs Broncos is gonna be a massive game for Fantasy. On one hand you'll have the people with the c on Haas, and then you'll have the others with the c on Taumalolo.

Think i'll captain Moses on the Thursday night to avoid the stress!

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:I’m imagining if I go without haas I wouldn’t have him til after origin and lolo not playing origin makes this a viable strategy. Are most people thinking haas before origin is a must? Seems a bit pointless unless he’s really bottomed out by then no?

Still hoping some cheapies like Curran emerge to save me the headache/perhaps allow for variation by having other guns instead of haas

There's 3 basic strategies around Haas

You either:

pick and stick - out and in over Origin

Skip - hope for cheaper price (anything over $80k would be worthwhile over 2-4 weeks)

Hold out until after Origin

The first 2 require Taumalolo or similar for Captaincy. The last 2 are essentially the same because if Haas drops enough most will pick him up anyway. Challenge is trading up to a $900k player. And you also miss out on his 70s and 80s until you get him. I'm probably going for the sub-gun route but it literally never works cause I'm impulsive ‍�

How many players that play round 12 are people looking to start with?

I’m trying to not to base my side around that too much but just to get the best starting team I can.

Currently I think I just have 5 or 6 players that play round 12. (Obviously some of those will have peaked before then)

I generally dont think about bye rounds until after about round 4.

If i cant spilt two guys of similar price i will look at byes but otherwise not really a concern.

What’s the go with Alvaro last year? Injuries? He used to be good, cheap atm.

Rabbits21 wrote:
I reckon Kearney will start Burr.

Yup. Burr will start at Lock and Papalii should fill the Tevaga role. Curran or Pulu to the edge I think

Its a stretch but if the Bulldogs decide to go young and start a guy like To'omaga in the front row, would he be worth a look at?

Rapture_NRL wrote:

There's 3 basic strategies around Haas

You either:

pick and stick - out and in over Origin

Skip - hope for cheaper price (anything over $80k would be worthwhile over 2-4 weeks)

Hold out until after Origin

The first 2 require Taumalolo or similar for Captaincy. The last 2 are essentially the same because if Haas drops enough most will pick him up anyway. Challenge is trading up to a $900k player. And you also miss out on his 70s and 80s until you get him. I'm probably going for the sub-gun route but it literally never works cause I'm impulsive ‍�

If he is scoring 70s and 80s you picked wrong as a non owner and wait it out till post origin. Personally I think he will be available at a discount while Taumalolo provides similar scoring

King Assassin wrote:Its a stretch but if the Bulldogs decide to go young and start a guy like To'omaga in the front row, woulld he be worth a look at?

Ahead of Tolman and Napa?

Honey Badger wrote:Geeze Cowboys vs Broncos is gonna be a massive game for Fantasy. On one hand you'll have the people with the c on Haas, and then you'll have the others with the c on Taumalolo.

Think i'll captain Moses on the Thursday night to avoid the stress!

I was at the stadium the other day and the track looks quick! We have had a bit of rain this week too so the pitch will be fresh as, unless it gets fucked by all the Elton John goers. Will be a great match. I think if I have Haas in my team it is because he is the highest scoring fantasy player and most expensive for a reason. The C is going on him every week.

Loomer wrote:

Ahead of Tolman and Napa?

Like I said, " Its a stretch," but just say they move Tolman or Napa to lock or to the bench to make way for him. H e was around a PPM guy off the bench last season and with more minutes could gain some cash.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

If he is scoring 70s and 80s you picked wrong as a non owner and wait it out till post origin. Personally I think he will be available at a discount while Taumalolo provides similar scoring

I agree. That's my current strategy