NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 10

Speedball Deluxe wrote:
yeah fair call, and I suppose it's not like Milford is any less of a dominant half than Munster is. So probably not much value in Croft I guess, I've just got a gut instinct this new opportunity may bring out the best in him, and fingers crossed he does lions share of KMs. He's in my team ATM, for now at least.

I like Croft as a player but for whatever reason just seemed he never got the fairest shake at Storm. Whether they didn’t think he was the long term answer I don’t know.

he could dominate the KM and elevate his fantasy game, I’m considering him but pairing with Milf who kicked far move than previous half partner Munster scares me to expect him to consistently maintain.

Loomer wrote:

I'm missing the punchline. Players in scoring 17 that may not even make their team's 17

The punchline is "all teams are irrelevant till TLT"

You have hlfs playing hoks

Ctrs playing wfb

Wfb playing hlfs

Frf playing 2ndr

Hlfs playing wfb etc

There are big voids to fill also, like warriors middle, which are going to be contested with vigour, and youth.

This is a new era

Pat Mago torn pec, out for 12 weeks

Redneck_hori wrote:


The punchline is "all teams are irrelevant till TLT"

You have hlfs playing hoks

Ctrs playing wfb

Wfb playing hlfs

Frf playing 2ndr

Hlfs playing wfb etc

There are big voids to fill also, like warriors middle, which are going to be contested with vigour, and youth.

This is a new era

Im a warriors fan mate and we are going to be mediocre to piss poor

Welshy wrote:
Im a warriors fan mate and we are going to be mediocre to piss poor

Poor teams frequently provide fantasy value

my tv broke wrote:Pat Mago torn pec, out for 12 weeks

Looks like that team that just got posted is even worse than I thought it was now

Milchcow wrote:

Poor teams frequently provide fantasy value

I wasn’t talking fantasy.

Welshy wrote:
Im a warriors fan mate and we are going to be mediocre to piss poor

Not what I meant,
I was talking about the nrl in general, and using the warriors as an example where we will see alot of youth cement minutes. Aka cash cows

Redneck_hori wrote:

Not what I meant,
I was talking about the nrl in general, and using the warriors as an example where we will see alot of youth cement minutes. Aka cash cows

Got it mate.

You have someone that does not miss tackles and is in a shit team where they are on the shit end of the spectrum with possession, you have value.

Where are the Souths fans? I have a genuine question.

What are your thoughts on Bennett releasing all the young guns that you were talking up last year (Billy Brittian, Conner Tracey ect) and then replaced them with his old Broncos fringe players like Dargan and Mogo

Shanbon wrote:Where are the Souths fans? I have a genuine question.

What are your thoughts on Bennett releasing all the young guns that you were talking up last year (Billy Brittian, Conner Tracey ect) and then replaced them with his old Broncos fringe players like Dargan and Mogo

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Speedball Deluxe wrote:
yeah fair call, and I suppose it's not like Milford is any less of a dominant half than Munster is. So probably not much value in Croft I guess, I've just got a gut instinct this new opportunity may bring out the best in him, and fingers crossed he does lion's share of KMs. He's in my team ATM, for now at least.

If your gut tells you pick Croft then go for it imo. You will be more disappointed if you didn't pick Croft & he scores well as opposed to picking him & he goes not so well.

my tv broke wrote:Pat Mago torn pec, out for 12 weeks

lol I just put him in my team

White Lightning wrote:

lol I just put him in my team

Same, dude is a beast. Koloamatangi, amone

On Croft, I think the case for and against buying him is as follows.

For: His average without Munster next to him is 54, and in those games, he was playing both sides of the field and calling all the shots. He also looked much better when it comes to the eye test. The Storm seemed to lock him onto the right side and only occasionally have him go left.

For Brisbane, he's the only dominant half and has a running 5/8 and a hooker that won't ball hog. From what I've heard, Croft will be playing first receiver on both sides, which is much more conducive to his style of play. In the games where he was the dominant half at Melbourne (mostly in the Origin period), he looked absolutely amazing. While it could be argued that that was due to weak opposition, you can only play what's in front of you.


Against: Brisbane haven't looked too good in the trials, though it could be argued that it was more the fault of the other players around him, but that's neither here nor there. If he doesn't get as many KM as we think, he probably won't average mid 50s, but I think he can very easily average high 40s to low 50s playing in the way I described above. I really want him and am tossing up dropping Cleary for him in order to beef up the rest of my team a bit.

Priced at 37, I think he's definitely worth the risk, and I think he'll get enough KMs to have him averaging high 40s at least, if not more when he has good attacking games. The Broncos might take a bit of time to click in the spine, but I think that they'll go very well with Croft there, he fits that team perfectly and lets Milf just worry about running the ball.

Also, if Isaako doesn't make the team, there's a chance Croft could kick goals, but I'd say Staggs is ahead of him for now

Bethany_B wrote:On Croft, I think the case for and against buying him is as follows.

For: His average without Munster next to him is 54, and in those games, he was playing both sides of the field and calling all the shots. He also looked much better when it comes to the eye test. The Storm seemed to lock him onto the right side and only occasionally have him go left.

For Brisbane, he's the only dominant half and has a running 5/8 and a hooker that won't ball hog. From what I've heard, Croft will be playing first receiver on both sides, which is much more conducive to his style of play. In the games where he was the dominant half at Melbourne (mostly in the Origin period), he looked absolutely amazing. While it could be argued that that was due to weak opposition, you can only play what's in front of you.


Against: Brisbane haven't looked too good in the trials, though it could be argued that it was more the fault of the other players around him, but that's neither here nor there. If he doesn't get as many KM as we think, he probably won't average mid 50s, but I think he can very easily average high 40s to low 50s playing in the way I described above. I really want him and am tossing up dropping Cleary for him in order to beef up the rest of my team a bit.

Priced at 37, I think he's definitely worth the risk, and I think he'll get enough KMs to have him averaging high 40s at least, if not more when he has good attacking games. The Broncos might take a bit of time to click in the spine, but I think that they'll go very well with Croft there, he fits that team perfectly and lets Milf just worry about running the ball.

Also, if Isaako doesn't make the team, there's a chance Croft could kick goals, but I'd say Staggs is ahead of him for now

Good write up.

I don't think looking at Croft without Munster is a good comparison - Milford isn't that different.

The main different is how much control he'll be allowed of the team.

Croft certainly can rack up a big fantasy score - he has plenty of big scores in his history. Main issue is he also has plenty of low scores as well.

I think there is a reaonable chance he'll be able to go consistently well at Brisbane, but its not without risk

I've chucked up fantasy scores from this weekend here

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1175-2020-trial-stats

Few notes about stats
a) the fantasy scores on the nrl site are sometimes out by a little because they seem to have problems rounding the running/kick metres, so my scores won't match exactly with what nrl.com says (mine should be more accurate)
b) I do't have minutes, to get that you need to find someone who watched the game and took note of subs
c) Try Saves aren't available on the nrl.com match stats page - some of these players woul dhave scored an extra few points if they made a try save on the weekend

Milchcow wrote:
b) I do't have minutes, to get that you need to find someone who watched the game and took note of subs

PSA full match replays are up on nrl.com for all 8 trials on the weekend, pretty easy to skip through a game and work out when someone was subbed off.

Milchcow wrote:

Good write up.



I don't think looking at Croft without Munster is a good comparison - Milford isn't that different.

The main different is how much control he'll be allowed of the team.

Croft certainly can rack up a big fantasy score - he has plenty of big scores in his history. Main issue is he also has plenty of low scores as well.

I think there is a reaonable chance he'll be able to go consistently well at Brisbane, but its not without risk

I mention Munster because Smith would give him more of the ball and overcall Croft. Turpin likely won't do the same to Croft, and from what I can tell, he'll have control of the team.

Picking him is definitely not without risk but I think the risk is worth the potential reward. The fact that he costs $249k less than Cleary is huge, and while Cleary will definitely score more (I'll guess mid to high 50s), Croft will likely average close enough to him to justify picking him and using that extra money elsewhere.

For example, in my side, I've used most of the extra cash to upgrade a 246k to Braidon Burns.

The likely difference in scoring for Burns vs one of the 246k guys is likely more than the difference between Croft and Cleary, and it helps bolster a very weak CTR position.

Basically, it boils down to your risk apetite and opportunity cost of that 249k.