NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 28 - too many guns

BEs




tba

MTBs Site - Stats, BE, Match Centre, Interchange Times, Price Predictor[/b]
http://www.footystatistics.com/

MTB's team builder
[size=45]http://footystatistics.com/team_planner_2020.php[/size]



Excel links

Milchcow's excel solver
https://www.mediafire.com/file/kcuwhduwp4n227e/2020_Fantasy_Solver_v1.0.xlsm/file

Milchcow's team planner
https://www.mediafire.com/file/pj9xsl5oxf2rgwd/2020_Team_Planner_v0.1.xlsx/file

arsen's excel
http://www.mediafire.com/file/3tr3at0u11gg7mo/NRL_Fantasy_2020.xlsx/file

mattnz's excel sheet
https://www.mediafire.com/file/ez4a4ipfe11s4h5/2020_players_updated.xlsx/file

Steve Nicholls (RNGD Analytics) excel database
https://www.mediafire.com/file/mxuesns6qcmu9qc/RFS_2014-19_Data_%28v1.0%29.xlsm/file


NRL update 10:30 Wed 20/05 - No Worries

INJURY & SUSPENSION UPDATE


Brisbane Broncos
Corey Oates (ribs, round three)
Alex Glenn (hamstring, round three)
Brodie Croft (AC joint, round three)
Matt Lodge (knee, round 3-4)
David Fifita (knee, mid-June)
Tevita Pangai jnr (suspension, round six)
Jordan Kahu (shoulder, mid-season)
Sean O'Sullivan (knee, mid-season)
Keenan Palasia (knee, late season)
Jack Bird (ACL, season)

Canberra Raiders
Siliva Havili (hamstring, round three)
John Bateman (shoulder, round three)
Hudson Young (suspension, round six)
Sebastian Kris (extended sick leave)

Canterbury Bulldogs
Kerrod Holland (knee, round three)
Marcelo Montoya (hamstring, round 9-11)
Kieran Foran (shoulder, round 3-4)
Chris Smith (knee, June)
Joe Stimson (shoulder, October)

Cronulla Sharks
Wade Graham (foot, round three)
Briton Nikora (shoulder, round three)
Josh Dugan (knee, round three)
Chad Townsend (thumb, round three)
Bronson Xerri (shoulder, round three)
Matt Moylan (calf, round three)
Cameron King (ACL, season)

Gold Coast Titans
AJ Brimson (back, indefinite)
Shannon Boyd (shoulder, round three)
Kevin Proctor (hamstring, round three)
Tyrone Roberts (ankle, round three)
Dale Copley (ribs, round three)
Beau Fermor (knee, mid-season)
Keegan Hipgrave (repeated concussions, round three)
Ryan James (knee, season)
Kallum Watkins (left NRL)

Manly Sea Eagles
Taniela Paseka (ankle, round three)
Albert Hopoate (knee, June)
Jack Gosiewski (back disc infection, June)
Manase Fainu (stood down/shoulder)

Melbourne Storm
Brandon Smith (facial fracture, round three)

Newcastle Knights
Herman Ese'ese (ankle, round three)
Sione Mata'utia (knee, round three)
Phoenix Crossland (groin, round three)
Bradman Best (fractured foot, round three)
Kalyn Ponga (suspension, round four)
Mitch Barnett (shoulder, July)
Jayden Brailey (knee, season)

North Queensland Cowboys
Michael Morgan (shoulder, round seven)

Parramatta Eels
Nathan Brown (suspension, round five)
Reed Mahoney (foot, June)

Penrith Panthers
Dylan Edwards (ankle, round three)
Kurt Capewell (quad strain, round three)
Spencer Leniu (knee, round three)
Jack Hetherington (suspension, round four)
Nathan Cleary (suspension, round five)
Tyrone May (Suspension)

South Sydney Rabbitohs
Patrick Mago (pectoral, June-July)
James Roberts ?? Possible 14 day isolation

St George Illawarra Dragons
Mikaele Ravalawa (quad, round three)
Cameron McInnes (knee, round three)
Korbin Sims (arm, round three)
Tariq Sims (suspension, round three)
Jack de Belin (stood down)

Sydney Roosters
Boyd Cordner (rested, round three)
Nat Butcher (round three)
Sitili Tupouniua (knee, indefinite)
Billy Smith (knee, season)

Warriors
Gerard Beale (knee, round three)
Jazz Tevaga (knee, indefinite)
Leeson Ah Mau (pectoral, September)
Nathaniel Roache (knee, mid-season)
Taane Milne (knee, season)
Jackson Frei (knee, season)
Bunty Afoa (knee, season)

Wests Tigers
Moses Mbye (knee, round three)
Thomas Mikaele (knee, round three)
Luke Brooks (calf, round three)
Jacob Liddle (knee, indefinite)
Russell Packer (foot, indefinite)
Shawn Blore (knee, round three)


Venues

Bankwest Stadium - Eels, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs, Sharks, Roosters

Campbelltown Stadium - Dragons, Tigers, Panthers, Raiders

Central Coast Stadium - Knights, Warriors, Sea Eagles

Suncorp Stadium - Broncos, Titans

QCB Stadium - Cowboys

AAMI Park - Storm


Bye Planning

Where we're going, we don't need byes

multipe.scoregasms wrote:I love Melbourne as a club, they are the epitome of professionalism and consistency, but I think he might be right

While Melbourne is good enough to hang with anyone, they bring their best every single week. This means a lot of regular season wins, but they don't have that extra gear for the finals that other teams seem to. This year for example Raiders and Roosters have a much higher ceiling. If the Panthers and Eels get going they are also in that camp. Broncos pack has a chance at being so dominant that no one else can compete. That's 5 teams that while might not be favourites, could beat Melbourne in the finals. From 2007-2011 it was Melbourne then daylight

Thats because we cheated to have blokes like GI, Hoffman, Folau, etc. everyone predicted the Storms dramatic demise ever since and we have only pushed on an on. I still don't see an incremental decline.

Also from the years 2016-2018 we were either premiers or Runners-up? So we can clearly win finals matches.

2nd

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Thats because we cheated to have blokes like GI, Hoffman, Folau, etc. everyone predicted the Storms dramatic demise ever since and we have only pushed on an on. I still don't see an incremental decline.

Also from the years 2016-2018 we were either premiers or Runners-up? So we can clearly win finals matches.

The general public under estimated just how good Smith is. Combined with Bellamy's ability to find first graders that other teams over look means Melbourne will always be competitive.

It's not just about winning finals games, it's about your chance of winning the title. Take the 2011 Warriors grand final squad as an example. Sure they won a few games in the finals, but were never a real chance at winning the comp

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Thats because we cheated to have blokes like GI, Hoffman, Folau, etc. everyone predicted the Storms dramatic demise ever since and we have only pushed on an on. I still don't see an incremental decline.

Also from the years 2016-2018 we were either premiers or Runners-up? So we can clearly win finals matches.

I agree. Always makes me laugh a bit when people keep calling storms demise. Bellamy knows how to coach his team to win games. Not going to stop backing storm to finish top 4 until it actually happens. To many other teams over the years have had better teams that throw won games over the season which storm never seem to do. With Grant to replace Smith next year they look to still be in good hands.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

The general public under estimated just how good Smith is. Combined with Bellamy's ability to find first graders that other teams over look means Melbourne will always be competitive.

It's not just about winning finals games, it's about your chance of winning the title. Take the 2011 Warriors grand final squad as an example. Sure they won a few games in the finals, but were never a real chance at winning the comp

Same can be said for 2017 cowboys. Never really were going to have a chance against storm but stunned a few better teams in earlier finals games.

Morning all,

Does anyone know if Hipgrave passed the 'eye test'? I was too busy following Lolo. Looks like he got through 80 minutes and scored a reasonable 33 (with 14 demerits). Looking at him as an alternative cash cow to Fog and more reliable 17/18th man, provided Bryce stays away from team lists.

He was very hungry in attack and defence. I didn't pay too much attention though.

MoFo beasted it the whole time he was on for the Titans. His hit ups always looked threatening to breaknor be able to offer a late offload. Not sure they'll use the same tactics but he put on a hearty performance

Horse>Mofo seems like a good transition trade. If they both scored 60 they increase around 45k and I know who more likely to score 60

@"StormTrooper1996" I wouldn't say Storm are in decline. I definitely think there was a period around 2016-2018 where no matter what game, Storm were composed throughout.

I think the loss of Slater and Cronk have had a bigger impact than people realise. I look at the game vs the Raiders and they looked flustered. I saw a similar thing in a couple games last year too. This is in contrast to what I used to expect of the Storm. Cool, calm, collected. I would say though, Storm and Roosters are the benchmark teams, with Raiders starting to establish themselves in the same rank.

Hopefully, Warriors can do that too one day haha

Edith: Wrote this before I read the top comment lol

Decided to take a different route to most teams this year.

Koro
Hass carrigan
Arrow Yeo Katoa
Croft luai
Critchton williame
Teddy ponga turbo

Papa Holmes grant Rudolph

Kennedy Walters shibs Fogarty

Rapture_NRL wrote:@"StormTrooper1996" I wouldn't say Storm are in decline. I definitely think there was a period around 2016-2018 where no matter what game, Storm were composed throughout.

I think the loss of Slater and Cronk have had a bigger impact than people realise. I look at the game vs the Raiders and they looked flustered. I saw a similar thing in a couple games last year too. This is in contrast to what I used to expect of the Storm. Cool, calm, collected. I would say though, Storm and Roosters are the benchmark teams, with Raiders starting to establish themselves in the same rank.

Hopefully, Warriors can do that too one day haha

If they can do half a dozen offloads for only a couple of incomplete sets each week they will be well on their way. The realist in me expects a 60% completion rate from them this week though.

Just to reiterate my point about remaining trades.

From this point on, any time you bring someone in to your team that is not a keeper, that means that someone else in your squad just became a keeper.
Don't get yourself in a position where you end up with a bunch of cash cows but not enough trades to upgrade them all and end up with a bunch if rubbish in your final team

If you trade in guys like Mofo, you have to be prepared to play them for the long haul. Still might be worth it, but if you are going to have plans to make some cash on these guys and upgrade later, make sure you actually have the trades left to do so.

Also trading someone in because he might make $50k this week is shocking short sightedness. Some of the scores from the weekend are not going to happen every week. Someone who has a negative BE this week can very easily put up a couple of score sin the 20s and then become a problem for your team.

manlybeaver wrote:Decided to take a different route to most teams this year.

Koro
Hass carrigan
Arrow Yeo Katoa
Croft luai
Critchton williame
Teddy ponga turbo

Papa Holmes grant Rudolph

Kennedy Walters shibs Fogarty

Love this. Crazy stacked backline and you have most of the must have forwards, only really missing Lolo. What's your next gun you will work towards? Cleary maybe?

Loomer wrote:Cui bono?

Macca I’d guess, maybe with Randall a safer spell player?

Milchcow wrote:
Just to reiterate my point about remaining trades.

From this point on, any time you bring someone in to your team that is not a keeper, that means that someone else in your squad just became a keeper.
Don't get yourself in a position where you end up with a bunch of cash cows but not enough trades to upgrade them all and end up with a bunch if rubbish in your final team

If you trade in guys like Mofo, you have to be prepared to play them for the long haul. Still might be worth it, but if you are going to have plans to make some cash on these guys and upgrade later, make sure you actually have the trades left to do so.

Also trading someone in because he might make $50k this week is shocking short sightedness. Some of the scores from the weekend are not going to happen every week. Someone who has a negative BE this week can very easily put up a couple of score sin the 20s and then become a problem for your team.

Has been in the back of my mind since your previous post. I'm lucky that pre this week's trades I think I already have 6/7 keepers (or at least good enough to have no issues holding all year). Will get at least 1-2 more in with an eye for Cleary next week then try and hold trades for the backend of the season as my cows mature.

manlybeaver wrote:Decided to take a different route to most teams this year.

Koro
Hass carrigan
Arrow Yeo Katoa
Croft luai
Critchton williame
Teddy ponga turbo

Papa Holmes grant Rudolph

Kennedy Walters shibs Fogarty

First, you need to swap Carrigan and Rudolph around so you have some 2RF cover in your emergencies.

Already been mentioned, but do you have plans to get Lolo in?

To be honest this doesn't look as strong as some of the other teams here - having 5 strong WFB doesn't help too much if the rest of your team is too weak. Croft + Luai is a much weaker halves pairing than just about everyone else.

Empyreal wrote:

Love this. Crazy stacked backline and you have most of the must have forwards, only really missing Lolo. What's your next gun you will work towards? Cleary maybe?

Clearly if I can find the funds might have to downgrade papa or holmes

Didn't notice Jake T got subbed on the weekend and only scored 41. Probably subbed as they had the game wrapped up, but another score in the 40's will bring his price down a bit and make him ripe to pick up.

Milchcow wrote:
Just to reiterate my point about remaining trades.

From this point on, any time you bring someone in to your team that is not a keeper, that means that someone else in your squad just became a keeper.
Don't get yourself in a position where you end up with a bunch of cash cows but not enough trades to upgrade them all and end up with a bunch if rubbish in your final team

If you trade in guys like Mofo, you have to be prepared to play them for the long haul. Still might be worth it, but if you are going to have plans to make some cash on these guys and upgrade later, make sure you actually have the trades left to do so.

Also trading someone in because he might make $50k this week is shocking short sightedness. Some of the scores from the weekend are not going to happen every week. Someone who has a negative BE this week can very easily put up a couple of score sin the 20s and then become a problem for your team.

Unless you're me and use all your back up trades to upgrade hahaha

But very sound advice Mr Bovine.