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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 39 - Sarsaparilla time

    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:43 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Most are trying to do both as much as possible.

    Firstly you need at least one of Haas/Lolo/McInnes as captain, which everyone does. 2 is good. 3 is better but pretty rare from what I've seen.

    I traded Teddy in because his scores are that much better than the next best WFBs as to make him worth the money.

    Other than that value guys like Yeo, Twal, Mofo, Crichton, Pearce, McCullough, Robson have all been/are currently popular
    They don't always go as you'd like though - TTrbo was a big trade in target recently but hasn't quite worked out.

    I'm going for RFM as a bit of a long shot attempt this week, could make or break what is left of my season.

    Just note that its not possible to get every single good value player. You have to pick and choose and hope for the best.

    Yeah I think this is normal.

    R3 I got Haas (a bit sideways replacing suspended Cleary), R4 Mofo (value and saved trades), R5 Teddy (elite and value), R6 I’m looking for value or taking stock.

    There’s a bit of a mad rush where people are saying they’re trading out cows early or losing patience with players like Papy early. Unless it’s for Haas, MCInnes or Teddy seems risky to me

    EDIT: I also like RFM if you’re stuck. 150k-200k undervalue, if you’re stuck at seasons end with him he’s any ok 17th/18th (probs Leilua/Katoa level)


    Last edited by robelgordo on Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:43 pm

    Boozecluez wrote:

    Smooth and Shifty, sounds like VK's tinder profile

    Lol
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:44 pm

    SoylentGreen wrote:

    US sports analytics is so far ahead of what we see here. Doesn't always mean it's right (the beauty of sport is that it can defy logic) but WAR, VORP and other Sabermetrics really bring another level to how players and teams are evaluated
    Mulvy wrote:
    I understood a few of the words in that sentence.....

    More seriously, people use VORP (or a related concept) in fantasy all the time

    Value Over Replacement Player

    Haas is popular not just because he's the best scorer in the game, but he is also significantly better than the next best prop.

    As alluded to with McInnes/DCE talk. McInnes is good not just because he scores well, but because he scores significantly better than the next best option, whereas DCE can replaced easily by one of a number of people

    Its not quite what VORP measures because you are comparing to the next best available rather than "replacement level" ie comparing Haas to Klemmer rather than Isaac Liu. but its a similar concept.
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:45 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    I'm avoiding Milford because I think his discount is based on role change(splitting kick metres with Croft) rather than form (Arey) or injury (Pearce)
    KM with Croft well down but has had similar lean KM spell periods, need to figure out quick if Croft is sharing long term or reverts to the running half and Milf takes back the main kick game. I’ll have probably traded in Clearys halves partner before finding that out
    Shady2K
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    Post by Shady2K Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:47 pm

    FalconSloth wrote:I got quite the dilemma. I can either go Capewell and Drinkwater to HTF and Mitchell, keep the cash and trade two of Kerr/Luai/Rudolph to a gun and a cow. My problem with this is I might not be able to afford and WFB keeper next week and I need to rely on a cow to pop up or I can go Capewell and Leilua to Mitchell and Macca, Lucy hasn’t scored above 50 without a try and he has peeked in price barring a massive game and I feel like I need to jump on Macca now or never and cut price keepers are going to be gold this year.

    Please can you leave your take on this situation

    Pretty much the same question as me mate.

    Leaning towards Drinky/Lucy out for Mitchell and Macca. Drinky bleeding cash and Lucy peeked for two season keepers who have their prices going up. Waiting a week on them will make them more expensive

    Could also get HTF + Teddy/Mitchell/Macca etc. but getting in two cut price keepers may be the better choice. Considering that Teddy is very expensive (value for money), and that HTF could be a trap cow who gets flicked to the wing once Holmes is back and scores 15s

    The Mitchell/Macca option doesn't leave as much money itb, meaning next week will need to be a double cow week. Ideally someone pops up i.e. Farnworth decent in the centres
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:48 pm

    I'm still trying to get my head around the new scoring and player values. I think the fairest magic number to use is ~13,000.
    It puts into perspective the pricing of some of the key players I am missing at the moment:
    Turbo 50
    Ponga 65
    Teddy 68
    McInnes 76

    Look to all already be priced at or above their likely averages for the rest of this season. Trying to exercise patience, picking up value along the way.
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    Post by Guest Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:56 pm

    FalconSloth wrote:I got quite the dilemma. I can either go Capewell and Drinkwater to HTF and Mitchell, keep the cash and trade two of Kerr/Luai/Rudolph to a gun and a cow. My problem with this is I might not be able to afford and WFB keeper next week and I need to rely on a cow to pop up or I can go Capewell and Leilua to Mitchell and Macca, Lucy hasn’t scored above 50 without a try and he has peeked in price barring a massive game and I feel like I need to jump on Macca now or never and cut price keepers are going to be gold this year.

    Please can you leave your take on this situation

    In same situation. Keep flip flopping. But, leaning more towards going with Mitchell and Macca option
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    Post by Guest Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:01 pm

    Boozecluez wrote:

    Smooth and Shifty, sounds like VK's tinder profile
     You only know this because I matched with your Mrs 😉
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:04 pm

    Verbal Kint wrote:
     You only know this because I matched with your Mrs 😉
    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 39 - Sarsaparilla time - Page 8 Giphy
    danseels1985
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    Post by danseels1985 Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:07 pm

    filthridden wrote:Would I be right in saying there is a divide between strategies?

    Bring in as many of the big $ guns as you can (Teddy, McInnes etc) and likely not have so much cash to bring in keepers elsewhere.

    Try and aim for cut-price potential keepers when they appear.

    I'm not sure there's enough wiggle room to do both quickly.


    Definitely going with the guns ASAP approach so I have 12 keepers already hence why I’m placing faith in Averillo which will probably sink me but meh YOLO
    Weiland
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    Post by Weiland Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:14 pm

    Are people starting Paix over Luai and Fogarty?
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:15 pm

    Weiland wrote:Are people starting Paix over Luai and Fogarty?

    Based on communty team voting, yes some people are

    Speaking of which - voting is close for a couple of positional decisions this week, come and have your say

    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1365-r6-team-make-up
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:17 pm

    Fogarty is getting more and more appealing to me. Next 4 games are quote good... Having Roberts lingering is rough though. Still very cheap and a negative BE. 35 avg makes some decent coin in 3-4 weeks.
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:19 pm

    James Roberts confirmed not playing this week https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/06/18/bennett-not-ready-to-risk-roberts-against-warriors/
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:20 pm

    Weiland wrote:Are people starting Paix over Luai and Fogarty?

    Tossing this up too. Think I'll go Fogarty. Decent matchup against the Dragons and the only one of those three likely to play 80 mins.
    RandomSil
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    Post by RandomSil Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:20 pm

    Whats the news on Lucy?

    If Lucy is out I can loop Paix/Rudolf.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:23 pm

    RandomSil wrote:Whats the news on Lucy?

    If Lucy is out I can loop Paix/Rudolf.
    Had a press conference on WT website and declared himself good to go
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:23 pm

    RandomSil wrote:Whats the news on Lucy?

    If Lucy is out I can loop Paix/Rudolf.
    Trooper said he’s playing a bit earlier this arvo.
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:26 pm

    Nope... think I am sold on trades!.

    Capewell + Wiliame > Crichton + Farnworth + 40K

    Farnworth a 212K cow playing in Ctr for 4 weeks and possibly Wing moving forward... Hope he can jag a try or two over the time with Broncos big guns returning.

    My 2rf is SET for the year... don't have to look back now.

    Just need to focus on solidifying my WFB now.. Hopefully can do in 5 trades and then one more gun FRF which should only take another 2 trades after that. Then I should be done. Will have a solid 1-17 with a possibly 18th man loop and 8-10 trades to finish out the season.

    Obviously doesn’t happen that way so will probably need to keep 2-3 trades spare to get the final team I want so let’s say final 21 and 5-7 trades to finish out the year.

    Let’s do it.
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:27 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Some people want to drink this.
    Its got nothing to do with fantasy. I just wanted to avoid another centre related topic

    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 39 - Sarsaparilla time - Page 8 757529-1

    It's priced below its average but probably only worth it if it gets FRI/SAT DPP.

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