NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 2 - Backdoor Entry

Seems too easy to make a team with quite a few guns this year. Feel like I am playing supercoach.

Fortitude wrote:is the thought process with CHN, priced at 23 hoping he gets more than up to 50mins where he averages 24.5? I mean, im reasonably confident he makes the 17. I dont see him playing the 80min role he did at the dogs. Any more then 50mins is ambitious.

If he starts on the edge, he'll get more than 50 minutes and his long term average is 40 points a game.

If he doesn't start, we won't pick him

ShadowSabre wrote:Dont hate this at all:

looks pretty close to what I would go with at this stage. I'll probably skip holmes and go a bit cheaper at WFB only to be stuck with a dud there.

ytsb wrote:Anyone keen on Radley? At this stage I am starting with him.

Apparently not going to be ready to start the season. Was in my drafts until I found that out.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Averaged 51.2 over 61.6 minutes a game before getting injured last year. Priced at 39 so potential is there.

His 2019 stats at lock over 50 minutes was 49.1 at over 67.3 minutes a game (I believe some of these were also spent at hooker to give Friend a rest).

Seems pretty well under priced by about 10 points based on his stats. Has a great base in metres gaines, TB's and tackles and before his injury last year Robbo had him playing as a third ball player. Bit of an awkward price.

Massive mind blank but who is he replacing at lock and does Butcher steal minutes from him?

I may have talked myself into it.

Liu will start the season at lock.

This is my first draft.....It's a bit light I think

Milchcow wrote:

If he starts on the edge, he'll get more than 50 minutes and his long term average is 40 points a game.

If he doesn't start, we won't pick him

Thankyou for clarifying!

I'm noticing lots are going with 3 x 2nd tier WFBs, at some stage you will need to bring in Teddy and Ponga. 

Those picking Turbo as their 3rd WFB makes sense, great value, but other guys already priced around 50 that likely score at that level again this season seems a waste of a spot and a trade.

mattnz wrote:I'm noticing lots are going with 3 x 2nd tier WFBs, at some stage you will need to bring in Teddy and Ponga. 

Those picking Turbo as their 3rd WFB makes sense, great value, but other guys already priced around 50 that likely score at that level again this season seems a waste of a spot and a trade.

I've tried a few different combinations so far including RTS, Papy, Holmes, Turbo, Teddy, Moylan, Oates in various combinations

Running a combo of RTS, Papy and Turbo gives you similar ceiling, slightly lower floor than Ponga/Teddy at a significant discount. Since we don't have an unlimited salary cap, you have to sacrifice somewhere and I'd rather do it in this area. That said I'll probably end up running a gun, a mid with upside and a base in WFB like every other year

StormTrooper96 wrote:

How weird is it looking at starting the year with Teddy, Turbo, Holmes..... Set and forget?

Looks like it, unless you are worried about having three Origin players in one position when it comes to the byes

Moanaman wrote:This is my first draft.....It's a bit light I think

I can see pain coming in your centers again this season. Averillo isn't guaranteed a start all season, neither is Feagai, even if he starts in round 1. Fusitua needs a try to hit 30 points in a game, hasn't been the same player since SJ left, who kept giving him great cut out balls to score from.

My plan this year is to put guys in at center that are sure of their spot for the season. Currently have Rapana (must have upside potential from last season, has 2 full seasons averaging 47+) and Peachey. Happy to spend a bit extra for certainty in the centers, after last year's shit show.

mattnz wrote:
I can see pain coming in your centers again this season. Averillo isn't guaranteed a start all season, neither is Feagai, even if he starts in round 1. Fusitua needs a try to hit 30 points in a game, hasn't been the same player since SJ left, who kept giving him great cut out balls to score from.

My plan this year is to put guys in at center that are sure of their spot for the season. Currently have Rapana (must have upside potential from last season, has 2 full seasons averaging 47+) and Peachey. Happy to spend a bit extra for certainty in the centers, after last year's shit show.

Using 2016/2017 stats to pick a player is bold 

Have you also got Bryce Cartwright on that logic

I tend to agree with you Matt, I'm keeping The Fus though....

There aren't many players priced very far off 2020 averages this year.

I just ran it thru Excel, with a very sexy index/match formula to line up the NRL Fantasy dataset for derived 2021 BEs to the footy stats dataset for 2020 averages. Then the difference between the two gives you a players value.

The only players likely to have a significant R1 role that are massively undervalued on the raw data are:

Staines 29.3 (think this is an obvious outlier, can't be trusted)
J Brailey 10.4
C Ramsey 6.8 (wouldn't trust this either)

Lots of players "undervalued" by 0-6 pts - mostly injury discounts. Also Magoulias lol

Only overvalued players are at base price, 246k. Mostly limited minute INT players and Dean Whare.

Of course, none of this takes into account player improvement, new clubs, new positions, new roles, new minutes etc. I feel this means that while there are loads of options this season, it is going to require a lot of judgment rather than just looking at stats.

Happy New Year all, it's good to be back.

Already some great discussion and thoughts. Sounds like there are a lot of centre options being thrown around.

Esan Marsters had a couple of solid scoring seasons 2018, 2019. What happened last year?

Camo123 wrote:
Using 2016/2017 stats to pick a player is bold 

Have you also got Bryce Cartwright on that logic

I see him more as a Milf style bet than a Carty pick. Rapana will have a spot locked in and seems to now be at center, where he has scored well. Has a low of 26 at center, without having scored any tries in that position. They will certainly come at some point. Is also one of very few CTR/WFBs which is really handy. 

I am expecting Raiders to dominate when their bench forwards come on. Have the best bench depth in the comp. Can see their backs carving up either side of half time.

mattnz wrote:
I see him more as a Milf style bet than a Carty pick. Rapana will have a spot locked in and seems to now be at center, where he has scored well. Has a low of 26 at center, without having scored any tries in that position. They will certainly come at some point. Is also one of very few CTR/WFBs which is really handy. 

I am expecting Raiders to dominate when their bench forwards come on. Have the best bench depth in the comp. Can see their backs carving up either side of half time.

I think he’s back to wing with Scott and Croker/injury replacement at CTR

I actually would consider at CTR

mattnz wrote:I'm noticing lots are going with 3 x 2nd tier WFBs, at some stage you will need to bring in Teddy and Ponga. 

Those picking Turbo as their 3rd WFB makes sense, great value, but other guys already priced around 50 that likely score at that level again this season seems a waste of a spot and a trade.

I think Brimmo takes the jump to 55pt avg this year

StormTrooper96 wrote:

I think Brimmo takes the jump to 55pt avg this year

At this stage I have brimson, teddy, turbo as my WFB but conscious of too many middies

Does anyone have stats for brooks without Benji handy? Looking like a Munster + Brooks combo for me with Lam on the bench provided he gets the spot. Lam was ridiculously busy end of last year and I really like what I saw. Played his heart out every game which seemed to translate fairly well into fantasy points.