NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 2 - Backdoor Entry

Why do people always believe that if someone scores well in round 1 in a given year, they'll score well in round 1 the next year?
What is the logic behind it?

I might have to do some tests to see how often it holds up.

A lot of people are picking Riki. Is that because he is likely to start? And if not, is he good value off the bench?

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:

Looks like a very solid starter team! Sorry for the noob question but who is LAM?

Leeson Ah Mau Warriors prop (not to be confused with Lachlan Lam)

Holy Moly wrote:A lot of people are picking Riki. Is that because he is likely to start? And if not, is he good value off the bench?

Considered the front runner for the position Fifita had last season, with TPJ playing middle.

Holy Moly wrote:A lot of people are picking Riki. Is that because he is likely to start? And if not, is he good value off the bench?

People are picking him because Riki will outscore fifita this year

Right. Cheers. I was going off the NRL's Round 1 starting team analysis where they said Alex Glenn was ahead of him.

Holy Moly wrote:Right. Cheers. I was going off the NRL's Round 1 starting team analysis where they said Alex Glenn was ahead of him.

Glenn is on the other edge.

OK, so over the last 3 years these are the fastest starters

Name	avg over	Std dev
Korbin Sims	13.8	12.5
Tom Trbojevic	13.3	19.2
Kurt Capewell	12.2	14.6
Apisai Koroisau	10.5	3.3
Moses Mbye	9.7	9.8
Isaah Yeo	9.0	5.5
Jake Friend	8.5	3.8
Robert Jennings	7.9	4.9
Blake Ferguson	7.8	5.1
Jamayne Isaako	7.6	8.3
Dylan Napa	6.9	6.9
Jesse Bromwich	6.0	2.0
Bunty Afoa	6.0	5.7
Tyrell Fuimaono	5.9	8.9
Sam Lisone	5.7	0.7
Nick Cotric	5.5	10.6
Sam Williams	5.5	5.9
Esan Marsters	5.2	11.1

Criteria, people that played at least 1 game in rounds 1 to 3 in each of 2018, 2019, 2020
This is the average amount that their rounds 1-3 score ebats their season average by.

For Std dev - the lower the number, the more consistent they are at scoring higher in first 3 rounds.
High numbers mean they've likely been skewed by 1 rogue season
eg Kurt Capewell makes the list basically entirely because he scored 75 in round 3 last year and then got injured in the 2nd minute 2 weeks later. So his first 3 average was 32 points higher than his season average.

Disclaimer. I will not be making any selection decisions on the basis of this list

Conversely, here are the slowest starters of the past 3 years

Name	avg over	Std dev
Nathan Brown	-19.3	13.2
Connor Watson	-15.9	15.0
Mitchell Barnett	-15.5	5.7
Latrell Mitchell	-13.5	2.9
Luciano Leilua	-12.8	9.6
Daniel Tupou	-10.9	7.4
Joseph Tapine	-10.8	4.7
Joseph Manu	-10.7	5.2
Brett Morris	-10.6	10.1
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak	-10.3	7.4
Mitchell Pearce	-10.3	2.4
Josh Papalii	-10.2	6.1
Agnatius Paasi	-9.9	8.2
Josh Addo-Carr	-9.6	8.8
Adam Elliott	-9.4	7.5
James Tedesco	-8.9	2.7
Corey Jensen	-8.8	7.0
Angus Crichton	-8.1	5.3
Mitchell Moses	-7.7	7.6
Joe Ofahengaue	-7.5	7.9
Brandon Smith	-7.4	2.9
Matthew Lodge	-7.3	6.0
Tyrone Peachey	-7.0	3.8

Haha. Right. Well, I don't actually watch many games, most of my info comes from here, the NRL site and MTB's site. Basically, fantasy, origin and finals are the things I like most about league.

Where is Korbin Sims in fantasy? I clearly need him in my team now.

@Mitchcow How do you post a table?

Milchcow wrote:Conversely, here are the slowest starters of the past 3 years

Name	avg over	Std dev
Nathan Brown	-19.3	13.2
Connor Watson	-15.9	15.0
Mitchell Barnett	-15.5	5.7
Latrell Mitchell	-13.5	2.9
Luciano Leilua	-12.8	9.6
Daniel Tupou	-10.9	7.4
Joseph Tapine	-10.8	4.7
Joseph Manu	-10.7	5.2
Brett Morris	-10.6	10.1
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak	-10.3	7.4
Mitchell Pearce	-10.3	2.4
Josh Papalii	-10.2	6.1
Agnatius Paasi	-9.9	8.2
Josh Addo-Carr	-9.6	8.8
Adam Elliott	-9.4	7.5
James Tedesco	-8.9	2.7
Corey Jensen	-8.8	7.0
Angus Crichton	-8.1	5.3
Mitchell Moses	-7.7	7.6
Joe Ofahengaue	-7.5	7.9
Brandon Smith	-7.4	2.9
Matthew Lodge	-7.3	6.0
Tyrone Peachey	-7.0	3.8

Looks like half of my team last yaer.

Holy Moly wrote:@Mitchcow  How do you post a table?

In the toolbar with all the options for your post (Like bold, underline, insert image, etc) th last option is "Switch Editor Mode" flip that and you can cut and paste from excel and it will preserve the formatting

Milchcow wrote:

In the toolbar with all the options for your post (Like bold, underline, insert image, etc) th last option is "Switch Editor Mode" flip that and you can cut and paste from excel and it will preserve the formatting

Beautiful. I've been needing that for a while. Cheers.

Milchcow wrote:OK, so over the last 3 years these are the fastest starters

 

Name	avg over	Std dev
Korbin Sims	13.8	12.5
Tom Trbojevic	13.3	19.2
Kurt Capewell	12.2	14.6
Apisai Koroisau	10.5	3.3
Moses Mbye	9.7	9.8
Isaah Yeo	9.0	5.5
Jake Friend	8.5	3.8
Robert Jennings	7.9	4.9
Blake Ferguson	7.8	5.1
Jamayne Isaako	7.6	8.3
Dylan Napa	6.9	6.9
Jesse Bromwich	6.0	2.0
Bunty Afoa	6.0	5.7
Tyrell Fuimaono	5.9	8.9
Sam Lisone	5.7	0.7
Nick Cotric	5.5	10.6
Sam Williams	5.5	5.9
Esan Marsters	5.2	11.1

Criteria, people that played at least 1 game in rounds 1 to 3 in each of 2018, 2019, 2020
This is the average amount that their rounds 1-3 score ebats their season average by.

For Std dev - the lower the number, the more consistent they are at scoring higher in first 3 rounds.
High numbers mean they've likely been skewed by 1 rogue season
eg Kurt Capewell makes the list basically entirely because he scored 75 in round 3 last year and then got injured in the 2nd minute 2 weeks later. So his first 3 average was 32 points higher than his season average.

Disclaimer. I will not be making any selection decisions on the basis of this list

Tommy Turbos was very poor first 3 rounds last season, so his 2018-19 starts must’ve been off the charts

Wacko’s Whispers NRL Rd 1 Predicted Line Up – (d) = in doubt
Broncos
Isaako, Coates, Niu, Farnworth, Kennar, Milford, Dearden, Asiata, Glenn, Riki, Haas, McCullough, Lodge Bench: 14. Corey Oates (d) 15. Patrick Carrigan 16. Tevita Pangai 17. Tom Flegler
Raiders
Nicoll-Klokstad, Simonsson, Croker (d), Scott, Rapana, Wighton, G.Williams, Tapine, Harawira-Naera, Whitehead, Papalii, Hodgson , Lui Bench: 14. Tom Starling 15. Hudson Young 16. Corey Horsburgh 17. Iosia Soliola
Bulldogs
Allan, Watene-Zelezniak, Cotric, Hopoate, Meaney, Averillo, Flanagan, Jackson , Waddell, Faitala-Mariner (d), Napa, Marshall-King, Hetherington Bench: 14. Sione Katoa 15. Adam Elliott (d) 16. Ofahiki Ogden 17. Renouf Atoni
Sharks
Kennedy, Katoa, Dugan, Ramian, Mulitalo, Moylan, Townsend, Rudolf, Nikora, Graham , Woods, Brailey, Hamlin-Uele Bench: 14. Connor Tracey 15. Andrew Fifita (d) 16. Aiden Tolman 17. Siosifa Talakai
Titans
AJ Brimson (d), Don, Kelly, Herbert, Sami, Taylor, Fogarty, T.Fa’asuamaleui, D.Fifita, Proctor, M.Fotuaika, Rein, Wallace Bench: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Jaimin Jolliffe 16. Herman Ese’ese 17. Beau Fermor
Sea Eagles
T.Trbojevic, Garrick, Suli, Walker, Saab, Foran, Cherry-Evans , J.Trbojevic, Sironen, Davey, Taupau, Cust, Aloiai Bench: 14. Lachlan Croker 15. Jack Gosiewski 16. Sean Keppie 17. Taniela Paseka
Storm
Papenhuyzen, Addo-Carr, Olam, Lee, R.Smith, Munster, Hughes, Finucane, K.Bromwich, Kaufusi, Welch, Grant, J.Bromwich Bench: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Tom Eisenhuth
Knights
Hoy, Hunt, Best, Tuala, Lee, Mann, Pearce (d), Barnett, Fitzgibbon, Frizell, Klemmer, Brailey, D.Saifiti Bench: 14. Connor Watson 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Brodie Jones
Warriors
Tuivasa-Sheck , Fusitu’a, Hiku, Aitken, Maumalo, K.Nikorima, Harris-Tavita, Harris, Murdoch-Masila, Katoa, Ah Mau, Egan, Fonua-Blake Bench: 14. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 15. Jazz Tevega 16. Bailey Sironen 17. Kane Evans
Cowboys
Holmes, Taulagi, O’Neill, Tabuai-Fidow, Feldt, Morgan , Clifford, Taumalolo , Gilbert, Dunn, McLean, Robson, McGuire Bench: 14. Reuben Cotter 15. Coen Hess 16. Lachlan Burr 17. Francis Molo
Eels
Gutherson , Sivo, Opacic, Blake, Ferguson, D.Brown, Moses, N.Brown, Lane, Matterson, Paulo, Mahoney, Campbell-Gillard Bench: 14. Joey Lussick 15. Ray Stone 16. Isiah Papali’I 17. Oregon Kaufusi
Panthers
Edwards, Staines, Crichton, Whare, To’o, Luai, Cleary, Yeo, Kikau, Martin, Leota, Koroisau, Fisher-Harris Bench: 14. Tyrone May 15. Kurt Capewell 16. Spencer Leinu 17. Matt Eisenhuth
Rabbitohs
Mitchell, Johnston, Gagai, Graham, Mansour, Walker, Reynolds (d), Murray, Koloamatangi,Su’A, Burgess, Cook, Tatola (d) Bench: 14. Braidon Burns (d) 15. Liam Knight 16. Jai Arrow 17. Jed Cartwright (d)
Dragons
Dufty, Ravalawa, Williame, Lomax, Pereira, Norman, B.Hunt, Lawrie, Sims, Ford, Vaughen, McInnes , Kerr Bench: 14. Poasa Faamausili 15. Jack Bird 16. Daniel Alvaro 17. Trent Merrin
Roosters
Tedesco, Tupou, J.Morris, Manu, B.Morris, Lam, Keary, Radley, Crichton, Tupouniua, Taukeiaho, Friend , Waerea-Hargreaves Bench: 14. Drew Hutchinson 15. Isaac Liu 16. Nat Butcher 17. Lindsay Collins
Tigers
Mbye, Talau, Roberts, J.Leilua, Nofoaluma, Madden, Brooks, Twal, L.Leilua, Blore, Tamou, Liddle, Ofahengaue Bench: 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Stefano Utoikamanu 17. Michael Chee-Kam

Surely Ofa doesnt actually start at Tigers

Pretty sure Wacko will be well off the mark because starting teams will actually be displayed 1-13 not 1-7 and then 13-8

Milchcow wrote:

In the toolbar with all the options for your post (Like bold, underline, insert image, etc) th last option is "Switch Editor Mode" flip that and you can cut and paste from excel and it will preserve the formatting

And here I am using Bulletin Board Codes like a sucker