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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 2 - Backdoor Entry

    Iron Mike
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    Post by Iron Mike Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:32 am

    There is a few I'm tossing up.

    Lam vs Milf
    Cook vs Grant

    Love to hear peoples thoughts on the above player choices.
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:35 am

    Chewie wrote:

    Yeah I'm starting with Milf, surely he improves on last season (the only way is up right?)

    2017 - 45.5 avg
    2018 - 50.7 avg
    2019 - 54.7 avg
    2020 - 31.9 avg (the Seibold effect)
    2021 - ???
    Yeah I am planning to start with Milf, Lam and Brooks. Probably 2 of the 3 pay off and the other gets upgraded to Moses.
    sgdragons10
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    Post by sgdragons10 Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:35 am

    Chewie wrote:

    Yeah I'm starting with Milf, surely he improves on last season (the only way is up right?)

    2017 - 45.5 avg
    2018 - 50.7 avg
    2019 - 54.7 avg
    2020 - 31.9 avg (the Seibold effect)
    2021 - ???

    but kevin walters is even more shit than seibold? Id love to pick Milf but cant get past walters being even worse than seibold
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    Post by my tv broke Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:38 am

    sgdragons10 wrote:

    but kevin walters is even more shit than seibold? Id love to pick Milf but cant get past walters being even worse than seibold


    What makes Walters worse than Siebold?

    I'm not a Walters fan boy, I was initially against giving him the job - but I think he is the kind of coach the club needs right now, at least in the short term. He's at the opposite end of the scale to Siebold, more focussed on old school footy ethics and building the culture back up. Siebold over complicated things, the players hated it, and he was too stubborn to change his own methods.

    Siebold shut himself off from everyone where as Walters is open to as much help as he can get. He's brought some older footy heads with Terry Matterson and John Cartright as assistants, plus guys like Petero to mentor the forwards. Steve Walters has also come on as football manager. 

    I don't expect anything crazy but I think they will be at least competitive in most games.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:44 am


    I don't think its possible for the Broncos to be as bad as they were last year.

    Whether any improvement translates to fantasy points for Milford is another question.
    But if he improves 5 points, then he's a bit of a dud buy.
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:46 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    tl;dr - Unless you think Luai takes another step or Panthers become much better, Cleary's scores are largely repeatable

    Good analysis MS

    I was initially against picking any of Haas/McInnes/Cleary as they were just so much more than everyone else and a big chunk of salary cap.

    But if any of them can maintain a 70+ average, (and everyone else stays mid 60s at best) then I am starting to think you need one as captain.

    It won't be Haas (unless we get some indication they'll flog him for big minutes again) so I am starting to consider either McInnes or Cleary to come in as captain. Whoever is most likely to keep up 70+
    No Worries
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    Post by No Worries Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:53 am

    Cameron McInnes to join the Cronulla Sharks for 2022 and beyond Sauce everywhere online has just blown up
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:54 am

    Taken with a large pinch of salt, but Foxsports have done a predicted Broncos 17 that has neither Lodge or Riki in it. Fair few teams getting ripped up if that's the case.

    Looking quickly at the Broncos forum (really don't want to spend too much time there) a lot of them have Asiata as 13 in their starting teams.
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:54 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    Good analysis MS

    I was initially against picking any of Haas/McInnes/Cleary as they were just so much more than everyone else and a big chunk of salary cap.

    But if any of them can maintain a 70+ average, (and everyone else stays mid 60s at best) then I am starting to think you need one as captain.

    It won't be Haas (unless we get some indication they'll flog him for big minutes again) so I am starting to consider either McInnes or Cleary to come in as captain. Whoever is most likely to keep up 70+

    So many reports of Dragons shopping for other hookers has me worried… Either the Dragons want McInnes solely as a Lock or they don’t want him at all… Has me steering away from him a bit.
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:03 am

    https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/02/02/sharks-set-to-lock-in-mcinnes-on-four-year-deal/
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    Post by mattnz Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:05 am

    Would love to see McInnes switch clubs just after round 13 this season.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:08 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:Bit of a deep dive into Cleary to see how repeatable his scores are

    Firstly breaking them down year by year into attacking and base

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 2 - Backdoor Entry - Page 31 Cleary10

    As we can see most of his upside this season came from a huge increase in base points, with his attacking points staying relatively in line with career averages

    Further breaking down his base we can see why

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 2 - Backdoor Entry - Page 31 Cleary11

    Put simply, for the first time in his career Cleary was playing next to a half that doesn't kick the ball. KM as a stat is heavily dependent on gameflow(kicking out of your own half regularly, not camped on the opposition 20 through dropped ball or forward pack dominating metres)

    So how does this compare to other dominant kickers?

    Moses 453.6
    DCE 417.4
    Lewis 422.4
    Pearce 372.8
    Reynolds 393.3

    While Cleary is at the top per game, his stats aren't outside the realm of realistic. If we assume Luai will take on a bit more as well as game flow going a little again Cleary by "normalising" to 400 km per game instead of 500, his average would still be a lofty 67.


    tl;dr - Unless you think Luai takes another step or Panthers become much better, Cleary's scores are largely repeatable

    I rate this post. What it says to me is yes, Cleary can keep scoring 70+. It also says to me, KMs/tackles/RMs/FDOs are maxed out and if his price changes it's more likely to move downwards than upwards so he's not an autopick for me. Still, will probably finish as top half scorer and is a good captain option, so if not starting with him, need a plan to get him.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:08 am

    Pretty hard to play a season in front of Dragons fans who know you're off to the Sharks next year. Wonder if this deal will be hurried along.
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    Post by FaringdonSwirl Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:12 am

    StormTrooper96 wrote:

    So many reports of Dragons shopping for other hookers has me worried… Either the Dragons want McInnes solely as a Lock or they don’t want him at all… Has me steering away from him a bit.

    Who were those rumoured hookers again? Macca was one, right?
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:14 am

    I wonder if Griffin intends to buy and play a McCullough/Peats type and play them, or whether they are for depth and he intends to play hunt at hooker and buy a better half???
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    Post by Chewie Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:14 am

    my tv broke wrote:


    What makes Walters worse than Siebold?

    I'm not a Walters fan boy, I was initially against giving him the job - but I think he is the kind of coach the club needs right now, at least in the short term. He's at the opposite end of the scale to Siebold, more focussed on old school footy ethics and building the culture back up. Siebold over complicated things, the players hated it, and he was too stubborn to change his own methods.

    Siebold shut himself off from everyone where as Walters is open to as much help as he can get. He's brought some older footy heads with Terry Matterson and John Cartright as assistants, plus guys like Petero to mentor the forwards. Steve Walters has also come on as football manager. 

    I don't expect anything crazy but I think they will be at least competitive in most games.

    yeah, the different coaching style should be better for Milf, the question is how long it will take for Milf to regain confidence. We'll see. Anyway I'm happy to take the punt
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    Post by No Worries Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:17 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:Taken with a large pinch of salt, but Foxsports have done a predicted Broncos 17 that has neither Lodge or Riki in it. Fair few teams getting ripped up if that's the case.

    Looking quickly at the Broncos forum (really don't want to spend too much time there) a lot of them have Asiata as 13 in their starting teams.

    A lot of mail that both are unwanted and being shopped, could Fox knows something we don't.

    FaringdonSwirl wrote:

    Who were those rumoured hookers again? Macca was one, right?

    Not shopping around, but shopping for and it's Peats that has been mentioned
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:18 am

    Mulvy wrote:I wonder if Griffin intends to buy and play a McCullough/Peats type and play them, or whether they are for depth and he intends to play hunt at hooker and buy a better half???

    Or more excitingly for Fantasy play Sullivan at half.
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:24 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:Taken with a large pinch of salt, but Foxsports have done a predicted Broncos 17 that has neither Lodge or Riki in it. Fair few teams getting ripped up if that's the case.

    Looking quickly at the Broncos forum (really don't want to spend too much time there) a lot of them have Asiata as 13 in their starting teams.

    A lot of talk from the Broncos about Riki has included the words "raw" and other stuff that indicates he is more of a long term prospect than immediate first grade regular.

    So it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't start (although I also wouldn't be surprised if he does start, either)


    There are enough EDG value propositions that nobody should need to rip up their team if one of them doesn't make it. Only if lots of them fuall through will there be a lot of trouble
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    Post by Honey Badger Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:25 am

    Iron Mike wrote:There is a few I'm tossing up.

    Lam vs Milf
    Cook vs Grant

    Love to hear peoples thoughts on the above player choices.

    Grant is obviously a gun but it's hard to know how the Grant BSmith situation will play out. How many minutes will Smith get at hooker. I'm actually interested in Smith if he plays lock and gets some minutes at 9, pushing his minutes to 60+. If BSmith can average close to 50 points then he would be a good hold until the first bye where he will be a good rd 13 player with Grant away at Origin.

    Personal preference but i'm not going near Milf. Have Lam as my 3rd half.

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