HomeWho is your 1st half?The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:I’m struggling with my 2nd Half. Would you go Lam or CHT or Brooks? I just can’t trust Brooks but I hope he pulls his finger out this year!
NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 2 - Backdoor Entry
Rabbits21- Fanatic
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rhinoceroo- Fanatic
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Rabbits21 wrote:
Who is your other half at this stage?
Currently Munster, Lam and Milford.
Unless I change tack and go with Cleary then it'll be three from Munster, Morgan, CHT, Lam and Milford. Not considering Brooks.
Rabbits21- Fanatic
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Not keen on Brooks?rhinoceroo wrote:
Currently Munster, Lam and Milford.
Unless I change tack and go with Cleary then it'll be three from Munster, Morgan, CHT, Lam and Milford. Not considering Brooks.
I think he will go well with massive kick metres.
Rabbits21- Fanatic
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I haven’t made and drafts today or yesterday..... still on 3 drafts.
The Pascoe Fiasco- Posts : 2323
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- Post n°585
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 2 - Backdoor Entry
by The Pascoe Fiasco Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:45 am
MunsterRabbits21 wrote:
Who is your 1st half?
The Pascoe Fiasco- Posts : 2323
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- Post n°586
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 2 - Backdoor Entry
by The Pascoe Fiasco Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:49 am
If Madden plays Rd 1, and kills it, he could keep it for a while. He will take a lot of the kicking. If it’s AD from Rd 2 then he’ll have all of it.Rabbits21 wrote:
Not keen on Brooks?
I think he will go well with massive kick metres.
rhinoceroo- Fanatic
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Rabbits21 wrote:
Not keen on Brooks?
I think he will go well with massive kick metres.
I have an aversion to picking non-rookie players who I think are real life terrible, whether or not it seems to make sense for fantasy. (Being real life terrible also impacts on job security, and Brooks rightly got dropped last year.)
So, I wouldn't pick Egan either, despite other logic, and wouldn't enjoy cheering Lachlan Lewis on to a 900km 70 knowing he should get dropped next week.
Morgan is same price, much better player, probably a better team, averages 50 post-Thurston at half, will get the same KMs as Brooks unless Clifford is there plus more attacking stats and 100% job security. As long as he stays fit.
Mulvy- Moderator
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Rabbits21 wrote:I haven’t made and drafts today or yesterday..... still on 3 drafts.
#rabbitsdraftcountwatch
Iron Mike- Posts : 811
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Mulvy wrote:
In his last 116 games over six seasons SST has a career avg of 42.7. This includes 0.8 worth of GK so 41.9 without it, so claims of being a 40 point player are already tenuous. He has of course, improved over the years moving from a bench player to pack leader. Even just filtering by games over 30 minutes improves that average to 45.6 but that still includes a crap tonne of games off the bench a few years ago. Filtering by prop (his current role) improves it to 46.4. But of course more recent stats are the best thing to go by and 2019 prop over 30 minutes is 49.5 and 2020 at prop over 30 min is 54 ppg. GK part-time would see him push towards high 50s. Now lack of Radley could be behind some of these numbers, but most likely his growth as a player, forward leader, and the six again rules I would think have more to do with it.
The point is, the chance of SST becoming a 40 point player I think is extremely low barring injury.
The real question is whether priced at 50 he has any upside. Personally I think he'll continue on like last year scoring well with decent minutes, but get rested with shorter minutes every so often if there's a blow out. That's makes him a few points undervalued if he kicks when he's on the field. Enough to pick him? I don't know, maybe.
I had to google tenuous before I replied. Don't get me wrong, I will strongly consider him, but I just don't think he will improve from his average of 50. The emergence of Collins and injury return of Radley, and not relying on a few 80 minute games because of in-game injuries mean for me the GK is negated.
His first 5 rounds last year with Radley playing he averaged 40, (including his only try for the year but also a game where he only got one stint). Then from the next 9 games including the game where Radley got injured he averaged 60, or rest of the season 53.
Iron Mike- Posts : 811
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Roosters tend to play a different style with Radley in the team. They rely on SST to bring the metres (and extra minutes) when Radley is not there.
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Milchcow wrote:
You'll need to add the Solver extension to excel
This should step you through it
https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/office/load-the-solver-add-in-in-excel-612926fc-d53b-46b4-872c-e24772f078ca
Got it going, thanks mate
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Iron Mike wrote:
I had to google tenuous before I replied. Don't get me wrong, I will strongly consider him, but I just don't think he will improve from his average of 50. The emergence of Collins and injury return of Radley, and not relying on a few 80 minute games because of in-game injuries mean for me the GK is negated.
His first 5 rounds last year with Radley playing he averaged 40, (including his only try for the year but also a game where he only got one stint). Then from the next 9 games including the game where Radley got injured he averaged 60, or rest of the season 53.
I know it's only 1 person's opinion but I asked same question of TK on their social page about impact of Radley on SST. Basically think that Radley will be eased in slowly and playing first-choice kicker for less than 60 min is waste of interchange
Makes sense, it just depends on how much faith they have in their backups
Also more experienced forwards will have to stand up with Cordner reportedly out for 12 weeks
Last edited by Camo123 on Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:10 am; edited 1 time in total
multiple.scoregasms- Fanatic
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- Post n°593
Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 2 - Backdoor Entry
by multiple.scoregasms Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:17 am
Bit of a deep dive into Cleary to see how repeatable his scores are
Firstly breaking them down year by year into attacking and base
As we can see most of his upside this season came from a huge increase in base points, with his attacking points staying relatively in line with career averages
Further breaking down his base we can see why
Put simply, for the first time in his career Cleary was playing next to a half that doesn't kick the ball. KM as a stat is heavily dependent on gameflow(kicking out of your own half regularly, not camped on the opposition 20 through dropped ball or forward pack dominating metres)
So how does this compare to other dominant kickers?
Moses 453.6
DCE 417.4
Lewis 422.4
Pearce 372.8
Reynolds 393.3
While Cleary is at the top per game, his stats aren't outside the realm of realistic. If we assume Luai will take on a bit more as well as game flow going a little again Cleary by "normalising" to 400 km per game instead of 500, his average would still be a lofty 67.
tl;dr - Unless you think Luai takes another step or Panthers become much better, Cleary's scores are largely repeatable
Firstly breaking them down year by year into attacking and base
As we can see most of his upside this season came from a huge increase in base points, with his attacking points staying relatively in line with career averages
Further breaking down his base we can see why
Put simply, for the first time in his career Cleary was playing next to a half that doesn't kick the ball. KM as a stat is heavily dependent on gameflow(kicking out of your own half regularly, not camped on the opposition 20 through dropped ball or forward pack dominating metres)
So how does this compare to other dominant kickers?
Moses 453.6
DCE 417.4
Lewis 422.4
Pearce 372.8
Reynolds 393.3
While Cleary is at the top per game, his stats aren't outside the realm of realistic. If we assume Luai will take on a bit more as well as game flow going a little again Cleary by "normalising" to 400 km per game instead of 500, his average would still be a lofty 67.
tl;dr - Unless you think Luai takes another step or Panthers become much better, Cleary's scores are largely repeatable
Milchcow- Moderator
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Morgan is like SST to me. In that every year they get talked up as having value. He just doesn't deliver consistently, but always shows enough glimpses and that's why everyone is always intersted.
i think everyone just assumes he can replicate his 2017 form, and that's just unlikely to happen.
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I don't see any reason why Cleary won't dominate again this year, same with DCE. My question is can Munster get to those levels in terms of consistent fantasy scores. Don't really want to start with Munster and then have to upgrade him to Cleary or DCE. Is anyone else struggling to leave out Cleary or DCE? For me Brooks and Lam are the best of the middies so not sure where that leaves Munster.
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I’m on the same line of thinking at present, Cleary, DCE or Munster as my number 1 half.Honey Badger wrote:I don't see any reason why Cleary won't dominate again this year, same with DCE. My question is can Munster get to those levels in terms of consistent fantasy scores. Don't really want to start with Munster and then have to upgrade him to Cleary or DCE. Is anyone else struggling to leave out Cleary or DCE? For me Brooks and Lam are the best of the middies so not sure where that leaves Munster.
I think Munster will bridge the gap, I’m just not sure by how much.
I also agree with the earlier post on how Brooks could easily be dropped. While I can see value there, I just can’t bring myself to pick him, likewise with Milford.
I’ll be watching Morgan closely in the trials.
my tv broke- Fanatics Immortal
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Honey Badger wrote:I don't see any reason why Cleary won't dominate again this year, same with DCE. My question is can Munster get to those levels in terms of consistent fantasy scores. Don't really want to start with Munster and then have to upgrade him to Cleary or DCE. Is anyone else struggling to leave out Cleary or DCE? For me Brooks and Lam are the best of the middies so not sure where that leaves Munster.
Personally I don't want to take the gamble on Munster. I reckon he continues to hover around that 'slightly below top tier' average. I'm going DCE but its more on gut feel than anything, and at this stage I'm probably going to pair him with Lam.
Things could change but it will certainly be Cleary, DCE, or Moses as the #1 half.
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If Munster picks up the GK then he bridges the gap by about 10 points to Cleary/DCE. I also think he picks up the majority of the Cameron Smith KMs due to leftfoot so could potentially be another 4-5 points per game and 6 points GK.
Just have to see who gets the GK.
DCE might also pick that up too. I'd be tempted to get Munster and DCE if that is the case and downgrade Angus Chricton.
Just have to see who gets the GK.
DCE might also pick that up too. I'd be tempted to get Munster and DCE if that is the case and downgrade Angus Chricton.
my tv broke- Fanatics Immortal
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The Broncos posted a composition of some training footage and there were a handful of times where Milford appeared to be on the right side and Dearden on the left. Could be completely meaningless, as it was just very short clips, but I'll be keeping an eye on that. If he did switch to the right it would be encouraging for his kick metres. I think he'd go well playing more on that side anyway, seems to prefer stepping off the right foot.
https://www.broncos.com.au/news/2021/02/01/broncos-camp-2021/
https://www.broncos.com.au/news/2021/02/01/broncos-camp-2021/
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my tv broke wrote:The Broncos posted a composition of some training footage and there were a handful of times where Milford appeared to be on the right side and Dearden on the left. Could be completely meaningless, as it was just very short clips, but I'll be keeping an eye on that. If he did switch to the right it would be encouraging for his kick metres. I think he'd go well playing more on that side anyway, seems to prefer stepping off the right foot.
https://www.broncos.com.au/news/2021/02/01/broncos-camp-2021/
Yeah I'm starting with Milf, surely he improves on last season (the only way is up right?)
2017 - 45.5 avg
2018 - 50.7 avg
2019 - 54.7 avg
2020 - 31.9 avg (the Seibold effect)
2021 - ???