by Mulvy Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:15 pm
Iron Mike wrote:I looked at SST but reckon Radley being back is the key to him only being a 40 point player but he gets some of that back with GK, so will average 47 and likely overpriced.
In his last 116 games over six seasons SST has a career avg of 42.7. This includes 0.8 worth of GK so 41.9 without it, so claims of being a 40 point player are already tenuous. He has of course, improved over the years moving from a bench player to pack leader. Even just filtering by games over 30 minutes improves that average to 45.6 but that still includes a crap tonne of games off the bench a few years ago. Filtering by prop (his current role) improves it to 46.4. But of course more recent stats are the best thing to go by and 2019 prop over 30 minutes is 49.5 and 2020 at prop over 30 min is 54 ppg. GK part-time would see him push towards high 50s. Now lack of Radley could be behind some of these numbers, but most likely his growth as a player, forward leader, and the six again rules I would think have more to do with it.
The point is, the chance of SST becoming a 40 point player I think is extremely low barring injury.
The real question is whether priced at 50 he has any upside. Personally I think he'll continue on like last year scoring well with decent minutes, but get rested with shorter minutes every so often if there's a blow out. That's makes him a few points undervalued if he kicks when he's on the field. Enough to pick him? I don't know, maybe.