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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 16 - To Milf or Not to Milf, that is the question?

    Chewie
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    • Post n°361

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 16 - To Milf or Not to Milf, that is the question? - Page 19 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 16 - To Milf or Not to Milf, that is the question?

    Post by Chewie Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:26 pm

    Jack Torrance wrote:
    That makes me want to trade him 😄
    Maybe Koro needed a bit more matchfitness, maybe he had wrist issues? Maybe the coach decided they needed some fresh legs on the field?
    Koro is a gun and will come good. The stats of the past will tell you this. Don't trade him out, you're going to need him in round 13 Wink
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    • Post n°362

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    Post by Guest Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:35 pm

    Jack Torrance wrote:I feel really dumb for looking at dumping Koro this week and having a nice stash of $s. I'm spooked from that r1 game.

    What have you got to lose playing him another round or 2 to see if there is a trend
    Secondly Look at his minutes last year , bonus points if you check for the back on the bench each game.






    The answer is he should play mostly 80mins, scoring should come right and the first bye he will be gold
    Edited: what the hairy one said
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    Rabbits21
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    • Post n°363

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    Post by Rabbits21 Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:38 pm

    Anyone going with Lodge to Alvaro over Leniu?

    I think I’m going Lodge to Leniu and Host to Davey as Fui feels like a bit of a trap and Davey feels like he has more upside to me.

    Will mean I need to play Uto in my mids this week til Angus is back next week but I’ll make do!
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    Donkeyyyyyy
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    • Post n°364

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    Post by Donkeyyyyyy Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:40 pm

    danseels1985 wrote:How does Lodge and Simonsson to Alvaro and Leniu sound? Still have Moylan as cover for WFB

    Turpin
    BS9 Leniu Watson
    Fifita Riki
    Cleary Lam
    Roberts Averillo
    Teddy Papy Laurie

    Brailey
    Liddle
    Milford
    Crichton

    Alvaro
    Moylan
    Niu
    Stefano

    Would like Ofa but the only way is to trade out Lam and I think that’s premature. Thoughts?
    If trading Lam is premature then surely Simonsson is as well?
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    Milchcow
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    • Post n°365

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    Post by Milchcow Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:41 pm

    The whole "value of a trade" calculation comes from saying that an ideal final team would be worth about $14mil, and you start with $9.8mil, so you have 34 trades to get an extra $4.2mil.

    That's $125k per trade. But allocate a few trades purely for fixing injuries/suspensions and not making money and that's where $150k comes from

    Of course as booze alluded to, that doesn't count money made without trading.
    Eg last year everyone started with Carrigan and never traded him out. That's ~$350k of your $4mil without having to spend a trade to get there. If you select your starting team right you can get a whole bunch of your required cash without trading at all.

    Or trading in guns at a $150k discount after injury/poor form (eg as people are looking at Cook/Taumalolo in the medium-term future). You might never trade them out to get the actual profit from the trade, but you still get the value from their scores, assuming their scoring goes back up to the heights you expect - for potentially double profit from a trade (whatever profit you make from the guy you sold + whatever value rise you get after trading the guy in)
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    • Post n°366

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    Post by Guest Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:43 pm

    On the money as always milch
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    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    • Post n°367

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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:44 pm

    I’m torn
    TU Ofa and Davey v
    TD Mitchell and Alvaro /Leniu.
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    Rabbits21
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    • Post n°368

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    Post by Rabbits21 Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:53 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:Anyone going with Lodge to Alvaro over Leniu?

    I think I’m going Lodge to Leniu and Host to Davey as Fui feels like a bit of a trap and Davey feels like he has more upside to me.

    Will mean I need to play Uto in my mids this week til Angus is back next week but I’ll make do!
    Would leave me with

    Macca
    Watson Leniu Uto
    Fifita Riki
    Cleary Lam
    Avo Jet
    Teddy Pap Laurie

    Turpin J. Brailey Liddle Davey
    Angus Niu L. Croker Simonsson

    Leaves me 34k spare


    Thoughts? Angus comes straight in for Uto next week as well.
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    Syzy
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    • Post n°369

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    Post by Syzy Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:58 pm

    I’m tempted to not touch my team this week.

    I’ve got 21 starters and typically I make bad decisions trading week 1. Mostly with the players I trade out. Given some of the scores last week were skewed due to increased minutes from injuries, tries or first week wobbles it’s a recipe for disaster.

    Still I’m tempted to look for options for both NAS and Stefano. Bird and Averilo are both concerns but they get another week. 

    The tough thing to do is to weigh up the opportunity cost. I think it’s likely there will be much better options for both at similar prices, and holding them an extra week means I’m likely losing points and paying more next week. 

    The real uncertainty is who will have consistency. There are plenty of seemingly good options but who’s going to back it up...

    The two safest trade options in a sense are probably Alvaro and Leniu. Considering doing this and freeing up some cash to spend next week on some bargain keepers.
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    Milchcow
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    • Post n°370

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    Post by Milchcow Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:00 pm


    On trade value again, everyone trading Lodge out this week has just lost $16k on the trade.
    Assuming for the sake of argument that no other player made or lost money, team value has gone from $9,800k to $9,784k

    So effectively this is one of the X number of trades you have set aside for injuries, and you don't need to make any money. (or perhaps make $165k profit out of your trade-in target to make up for the money you lost on Lodge)

    You'll soon realise that you are going to need a lot of trades for this sort of injury trade. Hopefully by the time it happens again whoever gets injured has made a bunch of money before going down.

    But likely you will use more than 4 trades at a loss over the course over the season. So whilst a few coin goats at only $100k profit can be OK, you need to get on those big cash cows who will fund the bulk of your team.
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    Juggernauts
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    • Post n°371

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    Post by Juggernauts Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:23 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    Would leave me with

    Macca
    Watson Leniu Uto
    Fifita Riki
    Cleary Lam
    Avo Jet
    Teddy Pap Laurie

    Turpin J. Brailey Liddle Davey
    Angus Niu L. Croker Simonsson

    Leaves me 34k spare


    Thoughts? Angus comes straight in for Uto next week as well.

    Wow that team sounds familiar. Was literally just listening to The Late Mail Crew podcast while you were reading you team out and while I was reading this post. Just realised you were Cookie! Any other podcasters floating around here?

    Either way I like those trades. I already have Leniu and Alvaro but looking at Host to Davey and I think I’m sold. Seems like actually a good player. Even if he only gets 50 minutes this week, he should play well enough to push his claim for 80 minutes in the not too distant future. Worst case scenario he still has a good PPM so would be a slow burn if playing 50 minutes.
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    Teeth Eater
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    • Post n°372

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    Post by Teeth Eater Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:33 pm

    Ah, so The Late Mail Crew have their own separate podcast now. I didn't know that, but I'll check it out. Have to admit, I think they're probably the weakest link in podcast land (imo), but I am a sucker for all this stuff.
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    Oz Sport Mad
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    • Post n°373

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 16 - To Milf or Not to Milf, that is the question? - Page 19 Empty Re: NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 16 - To Milf or Not to Milf, that is the question?

    Post by Oz Sport Mad Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:34 pm

    Talking about stats....and even when I am focusing on NRL Fantasy or Sportsdeck, I do usually find the NRL Supercoach Talk discussions fairly useful.....but I found the following side project from one of their regular contributors fairly interesting:

    https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2021/03/16/nrl-round-1-2021-notes-trends/

    Early days and small sample size....but some pretty useful trends appearing to be identified, which are worth keeping on eye on as the season progresses.
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    • Post n°374

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    Post by Guest Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:43 pm

    Shit didn’t realise there was so many podcasts these days, wondered where all the cool cats are now haha
    Probably a good thing to have on in the background, hooked
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    • Post n°375

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    Post by Guest Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:43 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:Anyone going with Lodge to Alvaro over Leniu?

    I think I’m going Lodge to Leniu and Host to Davey as Fui feels like a bit of a trap and Davey feels like he has more upside to me.

    Will mean I need to play Uto in my mids this week til Angus is back next week but I’ll make do!
    Community team poll has Leniu leading by some margin
    https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1576-rd-2-trades
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    ytsb
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    • Post n°376

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    Post by ytsb Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:54 pm

    Chasing some advice here fellas.

    I need to find a player to fill Lodge's spot in the 17. I can either trade in Ofa with 22k ITB or Davey with 100k in the bank. I see Davey as a 35 point player for as long as Gosie sits on the bench, and Ofa as a 45ish point player. Also, Ofa's role in the team doesn't have the same uncertainty as Davey's. However, the extra coin after bringing in Davey might come in handy down the track. If Davey gets an 80 minute then I see him averaging at least 40 for a fraction of the price as Ofa. Can't help but think Ofa's 58 in 43 mins is an anomaly and his PPM indicates that he's suitably priced given his minutes already. By trading in Ofa I can't get his 58 score and he might not score above 45 again. The tigers bench does indicate he will play more minutes this week. He only averages a touch over 41 when playing over 50 minutes.

    I don't think I am comfortable taking on Leniu/Alvaro as consistent scorers in my team and am skeptical of LAM.
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    Welshy
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    • Post n°377

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    Post by Welshy Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:09 am

    Boozecluez wrote:Shit didn’t realise there was so many podcasts these days, wondered where all the cool cats are now haha
    Probably a good thing to have on in the background, hooked
    Not as good as the old one Very Happy Razz
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    • Post n°378

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    Post by RandomSil Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:38 am

    Welshy wrote:
    Boozecluez wrote:Shit didn’t realise there was so many podcasts these days, wondered where all the cool cats are now haha
    Probably a good thing to have on in the background, hooked
    Not as good as the old one Very Happy Razz

    If only the scheduling was easier around my work.
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    Moanaman
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    • Post n°379

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    Post by Moanaman Thu Mar 18, 2021 5:30 am

    Does anyone know how to kick someone from a League? I'll be buggered how as the easy option of selecting the delete button is not there.....
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    • Post n°380

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    Post by mattnz Thu Mar 18, 2021 6:33 am

    From observation of watching a game yesterday and then looking at TOs awarded, it looks like taking an opposition player into touch gets awarded a TO. Good for try saving wingers.
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