NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 19 - I told you so

For those who are struggling... we've only had 2 rounds, there's still plenty of time to get back on track.
Hang in there

Non-standard hits and misses for me:

Hits: Tupouniua, Tohu, Brooks 
Misses: Fogarty, Faamusili 

Still think Fog will have a great season, just a bummer to captain him this week which may be his floor for the season.

Problem with those guys are they are all fit bar Lodge, so I’m not overly confident trading fit players.

Although I’m strongly considering NAS to Fifita if money allows it when the shop opens

Rapture_NRL wrote:Anybody jumping off Tino? Thinking I could potentially shift him and Capewell. Looking at Sitili or Josh Jackson

I might have a look at it. I really dont want to spend a trade on a healthy body though. I had to trade Koro this week and have 2 red dots to think about as well. Hmmm

wolfking wrote:

If Matto is out, you'll have no edge cover with Riki starting.  Doesn't seem to be any cheap edge players from memory you could get for Davey.  Maybe just roll without cover and trade Matto.

Others are saying get Cleary but don't see how you'd get the coin.  Schuster in for Davey, does that give you enough coin.  Wait til lockout and maybe team lists mate.  You're team is fine, it's just Ted and Cleary going big both weeks puts you on the back foot.  It'll even out.

I wouldn't worry at all about Tedesco - he's scored 5 tries in 2 weeks to end up averaging less than 10 points over what he's priced at.
TBH as an owner that makes me a little nervous (even considering most of his tries have been fall-over-the-line 8 pointers).

Cleary on the other hand is scoring 15 points over his priced average without having done anything especially notable - that's scary.
Just referencing back to my prior post, having a clear Captaincy choice (Cleary) makes 23? of those decisions really easy - and 4/5 times it will pay off.
It's awkward paying over a mil for him, but the rest of us paid $973k - so the biggest loss is really the extra trade.
Plus it saves hemorrhaging 20 Captaincy points per week and avoids the stress of watching Cleary go large.

DarkKnight wrote:

Matterson > Cleary

Fund it with the best downgrade that raises the funds probably using Turpin.

What i was thinking.

Rapture_NRL wrote:Josh Jackson

That one.....

Rapture_NRL wrote:Anybody jumping off Tino? Thinking I could potentially shift him and Capewell. Looking at Sitili or Josh Jackson

Yeah I own Capewell & Tino & keen to sell both. I think I'll sell Capewell because of his limited mins in that Panthers pack & really round 1 he was lucky scoring that try or else he would of scored in the 30's. I might give Tino another game as he's up against the Cowboys & maybe he can get some attacking stats. If I sold both I would get Collins & Sitili.

Rapture_NRL wrote:Anybody jumping off Tino? Thinking I could potentially shift him and Capewell. Looking at Sitili or Josh Jackson

Maybe, but before this year he had only come close to this amount of MT once. Could be a different role where he's just looking to make strong first contact but cops the MT or could be that he's trying a bit hard to start the season not sure would have to go back and rewatch. If he cut those MT in half even and picked up a few TB's this week then I think people aren't so concerned, both of which aren't unreasonable based on 2020.

Teeth Eater wrote:


Brailey
Crichton / TKO / Watson
Fifita / Matterson
Munster / Brooks
Niu / Bird
Pappy / Laurie / Isaako

Turpin / Riki / Liddle / Milford
Averillo / Stefano / Moylan / Davey

Ranked 15k so take my advice with a grain of iodised table salt

I would personally look at 3 options

Drop Matto / Tauk to Tupounuia / Collins / Jackson (via Riki if needed) to free up some cap and they should gain some cash in the short term. Hold Davey if there are no suitable downgrades

Or

Flick Davey to Alvaro (might be too tight) and look at dropping Milf (unless you just got him)

Or

Matto and Munster out to grab Cleary and Schuster / Alvaro

*Only trade Matto if there is any concussion doubt

DarkKnight wrote:

Matterson > Cleary

Fund it with the best downgrade that raises the funds probably using Turpin.

Thanks mate. Wow, I actually had no idea Turpin was worth that much. The only way this could be done is if Verrills was named and is locked into a handsome looking role. Even, then with price changes I'm not actually sure I'd be able to afford Cleary and $246K player. But that'd be the only possibility I could see.

I guess if Matterson is definitely out for a while and Verrills is named this week I don't hate it... but my initial hope is that I don't need to trade out Matterson.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Agree fully. Yep Teeth you gotta get Cleary in!

Yep, sadly I can't see a financial way at the moment unless the above plays out. Guess we'll see how the week washes up.

Rapture_NRL wrote:

I swear this game is 80% luck. All those calls you made were well reasoned. Don't panic too much. I'm ranked 15k with no Cleary and I post here, no shame haha

Yeah, defo a lot of luck involved and hoping I've used up a chunk of my bad luck quota for the year.

Welshy wrote:
Just inside 15000 myself, no shame, long season

edit.  Check that just inside 18000 haha! Been here plenty early season only the odd season I’ve ever been outside 1000 at the end

'Tis a long season. I'm thinking that 1000 mark is what I'll be aiming for this year but we'll see...

easytiger wrote:

I don't think you should worry too much.
The way I see it, is that there are 21 decisions to make for a starting squad, then you have 34 trade decisions, 25 Captaincy decisions, and up to 4 players each round that you decide not to play (i.e. NPR) - of course injuries have a habit of reducing the amount of decisions made there.

That means across a whole season up to about 150 decisions.
Most of your squad is pretty cookie cutter (and I wouldn't worry about), and some of your "twist" selections haven't come off - it's a minor set back in the scheme of things. Honestly, if you nailed the rest of your decisions from here on in, you'd probably win the whole Fantasy comp by 500 points (because EVERYONE will make many regrettable decisions).

This year Reed Mahoney came out of the blocks fastest - if the game flow had allowed it, it could've just as easily been Matterson to banner up and get off to a flyer rather than an HIA in Round 2.

Last year I had Brodie Croft (terrible selection) go off with an injury in Round 2 (and 4 points) and I started with Carty (what was I thinking?!?), it sucks at the time, but none of those decisions were season-enders, I made plenty, plenty of other bad decisions and still ended up with a not horrendous rank - because the season is long (and this year it's longer and has the byes).

TLDR; Keep your chin up, try not to panic trade (the people above you will make enough mistakes to catch you up) and try to focus on what is long term best for your team rather than what everyone else is scoring this week. Then sit back and enjoy climbing the ranks!    

Thanks, cob. Yeah, one thing I'm not inclined to do, which served me well last year, is panic trade. Which is why I'm hoping I can actually hold onto Matterson.

In hindsight, trading Croker out could already have been seen as a minor panic trade, but I still think he reverts back to 20's and 30's after this weekend and I was so sure Davey had potential to be a bench keeper for the year. Just unlucky. But yeah, definitely not looking to fix my fortunes with panic trades. Just better decisions.

wolfking wrote:

If Matto is out, you'll have no edge cover with Riki starting.  Doesn't seem to be any cheap edge players from memory you could get for Davey.  Maybe just roll without cover and trade Matto.

Others are saying get Cleary but don't see how you'd get the coin.  Schuster in for Davey, does that give you enough coin.  Wait til lockout and maybe team lists mate.  You're team is fine, it's just Ted and Cleary going big both weeks puts you on the back foot.  It'll even out.

Thanks mate. I don't mind not having EDG cover if Matto is only a couple of weeks, knowing he will be there. It's just a big if at the moment.

Yeah, as above, unless it's confirmed Matterson will be out for a long time, I don't realistically see how I get Cleary at this stage of the season. Davey's really the only one I need to trade out of my team so I'd hate to trade out two guys I don't want to really part with, to get one dude who, for all we know, could get himself injured next week too. Not going to happen, but the one rule I learned from my very average first season was not to trade out keepers. Within injury-related reason, of course.

White Lightning wrote:

Yeah I own Capewell & Tino & keen to sell both. I think I'll sell Capewell because of his limited mins in that Panthers pack & really round 1 he was lucky scoring that try or else he would of scored in the 30's. I might give Tino another game as he's up against the Cowboys & maybe he can get some attacking stats. If I sold both I would get Collins & Sitili.

Tino has the role, but those MTs are killing him. Don't wanna hold too long if he's averaging 30s

Capewell- I was really wishful thinking he would get close to 80. Not urgent, but I'm thinking the window to switch out will be closing quick

Speaking of Croker has anyone ever play near on a full game of footy and scored a try + LB but have less than 10 run metres? classic.

If Cleary is out this week will really help build the bank required to get him for R4.

Rapture_NRL wrote:

Ranked 15k so take my advice with a grain of iodised table salt

I would personally look at 3 options

Drop Matto / Tauk to Tupounuia / Collins / Jackson (via Riki if needed) to free up some cap and they should gain some cash in the short term. Hold Davey if there are no suitable downgrades

Or

Flick Davey to Alvaro (might be too tight) and look at dropping Milf (unless you just got him)

Or

Matto and Munster out to grab Cleary and Schuster / Alvaro

*Only trade Matto if there is any concussion doubt

Thanks for the tips.

At this point in time I'm looking at B, but I also don't think I'll be able to afford it with price changes. Think it might need to be Schuster, if he gets a starting spot. Or Verrills, if he's back in town.

Not looking to trade Matto, Tauk or Munster at this stage, unless Matto is ruled out for a while. Hard to make to many solid comments before I learn a bit more about Matto, to be honest.

Appreciate the ideas.

my tv broke wrote:Speaking of Croker has anyone ever play near on a full game of footy and scored a try + LB but have less than 10 run metres? classic.

2 games ain’t it? What he run for in first game?

Archer wrote:
Maybe, but before this year he had only come close to this amount of MT once. Could be a different role where he's just looking to make strong first contact but cops the MT or could be that he's trying a bit hard to start the season not sure would have to go back and rewatch. If he cut those MT in half even and picked up a few TB's this week then I think people aren't so concerned, both of which aren't unreasonable based on 2020.

Even if he had half as many MTs he hits mid to high 30s. Could be wrong on this, but he's acting too middie for my liking

Welshy wrote:
2 games ain’t it? What he run for in first game?

He's down for 5m in the first game aha. Nearly doubled that in round 2.

Brightside- promising that he made 40 tackles. If he can do that a bit more and keep the negatives to a minimum then maybe he can crack some 30's.

Rapture_NRL wrote:

Tino has the role, but those MTs are killing him. Don't wanna hold too long if he's averaging 30s

Capewell- I was really wishful thinking he would get close to 80. Not urgent, but I'm thinking the window to switch out will be closing quick

Problem with Capewell was the delusions of grandeur that he was the next Crichton or Matterson when he was always just your everyday underpriced middie who goes well when scoring tries and 30s/40s when he doesn’t like the high majority of all second rowers. Not even like he didn’t have a decent history of his scoring there even playing 80 minutes

Welshy wrote:
Problem with Capewell was the delusions of grandeur that he was the next Crichton or Matterson when he was always just your everyday underpriced middie who goes well when scoring tries and 30s/40s when he doesn’t like the high majority of all second rowers. Not even like he didn’t have a decent history of his scoring there even playing 80 minutes

At 500k if he got 80 every week he'd be fine imo, but they have 3 really good edge forwards for two positions. There's always going to be some subbing/switching/etc going on there and one off week could see Martin starting in that spot for a while. I said the same thing in pre season

Speaking of great calls, might be time for the Gos to return to his rightful spot in my avatar.