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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 42 - TLT Return of the MILF

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    Post by Guest Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:24 am

    Dttragic2016 wrote:Really wanted to go Papz to Haas and Kenny to Walsh/Hampton etc but remembered that I really want Koroisau as a Rd 13 underpriced gun next week (thanks to someone on here) so going to try to be patient and just go Kenny to Walsh, in case Tedesco is out, to ensure I have 17.

    Our weekly analytics article looks at Turbo's hot start to the year, Haas' dominance (stats wise at least) for the Broncos & value plays: https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/your-edge-tommy-turbos-impact-broncos-bet-on-gamble-hopes-rely-on-haas/

    Round 8 data updated for try scorers & draftstars projections. Let me know if you have any questions but basically the higher the "highest/model %" the better value play we think it is. It's the best odds available across the sites/what our model thinks the odds should be. Some great plays for first & any time try scorer markets this weekend: https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

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    Nice chart, Haumole ATS is a decent shot
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:26 am

    Good morning all. Does anyone know anything about CHT being back earlier than expected? If this is true then is Walsh a no go? I was thinking SOS to Walsh, but now I’m wondering if Hampton is the better option. Paps to Haas seems the obvious other trade.
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    Post by Guest Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:32 am

    Does anyone think NBrown is going to continue to get lower minutes due to his silly buggers with his contract talks? Im trying to figure out whether to trade him out or keep him
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    Post by Guest Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:33 am

    Hehe 69 posts... aw I ruined it with this 70th one... Sad
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:34 am

    Ownership numbers have been updated for round 7

    The script now pulls the top 10000 teams. The link by default will show 2000, but you can adjust the amount of teams counted with the usual ?teams=500 etc (i will probably make this a bit more intuitive shortly)

    https://footystatistics.com/ownership.php
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    Post by Oz Sport Mad Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:36 am

    The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Good morning all. Does anyone know anything about CHT being back earlier than expected? If this is true then is Walsh a no go? I was thinking SOS to Walsh, but now I’m wondering if Hampton is the better option. Paps to Haas seems the obvious other trade.

    Don't love either of these blokes job security but despite CHT looming, I feel Walsh has the better chance of taking his opportunity.

    With Hampton, he has probably earnt a couple of weeks grace while they have been winning but I'm not convinced with the teams they have beaten.
    If they lose to the Warriors this week as expected and then lose to the hapless Broncos the week after, I am worried Payto might be inclined to start tinkering with his spine again.

    Just in time for Hampton to be dropped ahead of Rd 13....
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:37 am

    StormTrooper96 wrote:

    Look at it like this

    Haas - Uber gun MID will average more than any other MID and probably as cheap as he will be all year
    Macca - POD Hooker putting up gun worther scores and will sit well in your 14-17 for the year and plays R13
    Koro - See above.
    Moses - Top 5 half, plays R13 and probably as cheap as he will be

    SOS - Not coming back, made some cash, hard sell
    Momo - Gun centre, can he get back in the team?
    Turpin - All but peaked, bench hooker now, sell?
    Pappy - Will be top 3 scoring WFB this year, probably peaked in price, will miss a lot of upcoming games and possibly aim to get him back in after origin for 100K less

    All seems like the perfect scenario to me

    Agreed 100%. Part of me wants to move Turpin this week over Momo to keep some money in the bank. Wouldn’t be too happy if the split ended up being 65/15 to Turpin and he maintains his price
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    Post by Guest Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:38 am

    Oz Sport Mad wrote:

    Just in time for Hampton to be dropped ahead of Rd 13....

    Something tells me the whole cowboys team could be dropped for that
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    Post by Shady2K Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:44 am

    Want Walsh as back up for Teddy but that JS is so shaky. In and out and who’s to say he even keeps his spot. If they lose this week could just be out again

    Maybe just risk Teddy and go yolo and bring in both Haas and TPJ. What can go wrong
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    Post by Mr Snrub Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:45 am

    Oz Sport Mad wrote:

    Don't love either of these blokes job security but despite CHT looming, I feel Walsh has the better chance of taking his opportunity.

    With Hampton, he has probably earnt a couple of weeks grace while they have been winning but I'm not convinced with the teams they have beaten.
    If they lose to the Warriors this week as expected and then lose to the hapless Broncos the week after, I am worried Payto might be inclined to start tinkering with his spine again.

    Just in time for Hampton to be dropped ahead of Rd 13....

    Unless somebody gets an early release there's not really anyone who looks likely to take Hampton's spot. They've won 3 in a row and they'll probably beat the Broncos. Don't think they'll mess with the team too much.
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    Post by wolfking Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:49 am

    Oz Sport Mad wrote:

    Don't love either of these blokes job security but despite CHT looming, I feel Walsh has the better chance of taking his opportunity.

    With Hampton, he has probably earnt a couple of weeks grace while they have been winning but I'm not convinced with the teams they have beaten.
    If they lose to the Warriors this week as expected and then lose to the hapless Broncos the week after, I am worried Payto might be inclined to start tinkering with his spine again.

    Just in time for Hampton to be dropped ahead of Rd 13....

    Hampton and Drinkwater look like the halves for the year mate. Coach talks highly of Hampton too.
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    Post by wolfking Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:50 am

    my tv broke wrote:Ownership numbers have been updated for round 7

    The script now pulls the top 10000 teams. The link by default will show 2000, but you can adjust the amount of teams counted with the usual ?teams=500 etc (i will probably make this a bit more intuitive shortly)

    https://footystatistics.com/ownership.php

    Only 146 with Haas. Beer
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:50 am

    wolfking wrote:

    Only 146 with Haas. Beer

    Chooo chooo
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    Post by MayorofAlburquerque Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:55 am

    Howdy Y'all,

    Since we're all in the same boat here with this fickle mistress that is fantasy football, I thought it might be fun to look back at the eight "forced" trades (and one voluntary) in a bit of a "Where are they Now" segment for the 'Topes. What's got me choking on my own rage is the number of players who have become relevant again or at least not an issue within 1-2 weeks of being traded. Cannot stomach the irony of the Averillo and Croker trades; they were terrible and then miraculously turned it around after trading them out. Timing is everything in the end:
    1. Lodge - Injury (Hamstring, 2-4 Wks), Rd1 - Offered a starting MID at low cost. Lasted 18 minutes. Tricky injury and timeframe but came back in 2 weeks. Sold at $374k (-$16k). Now worth $419k.
    2. Host - Dropped (Not Lawrie, Indefinite), Rd2 - In hindsight a poor choice and never figured in planning until first TLT. Came back after 2 rounds (48 and 36). Sold at $353k (-1k). Now $386k and on the bench, so will eke a little more cash.
    3. Lam - Injury (MCL, 6-8 Wks), Rd3 - This year's "Host or Laurie?" was "Lam or Townsend?." Sold at $440k (-3k). At least we got Walker. Unavoidable.
    4. Averillo - "Dropped" (Ankle, 1 Wk), Rd4 - Disappeared from team with no news after averaging 22.6. Came back and has since averaged 53.6. Sold at $291k. Now worth $431k.
    5. Croker - NA (Spud, Terminal), Rd 5 - The perfect candidate for the Shit at Football test (whom I still picked). Spudded along to a 4-round average of 33.7 (boosted by an outlying 52) and only playing 50mins. A voluntary trade encouraged by Cust being named at 14; who was then ruled out due to flu. Now playing +60mins w/51 average in last 3 games. Sold at $375k. Now worth $473k.
    6. Liddle - Dropped (Maguire-ed, Indefinite), Rd 6 - The Tiger's woes were surely not all on Liddle. Did his job as a cow to make +$200k, but would have been useful for longer. Few spud scores in between the 50's with tries. At least we got Simpkin. Sold at $515k. BE of 14.
    7. Milford - Dropped (Walters-ed, Indefinite), Rd 6 - The ride only lasted until Rd6. It was a rollercoaster. Dropped and returned 2 weeks later because apparently it was the halves fault the Bronco's got spanked by 40 points and changing them again will fix the problem. Sold at $551k. Now at $551 with juicy BE of 17.
    8. Riki - Benched (Turnstile, Indefinite), Rd6 - Another part of the shambles that is Brisbane's musical chairs team policy. Dropped to the bench for Rd6-7, but gifted a start just before the Rd7 game because of an injury. By that time too late and another precious trade gone. Sold at $494k. Now at $481k but starting and manageable BE of 41.
    9. Moylan - Injured (Quad, Perpetual), Rd 7 - Moylan had one job and that was to cover WFB. He failed miserably when needed. Another poor choice. Surprisingly played in 6 consecutive games which must be a record. Sold at $369k.

    Can now look forward to dealing with Turpin and O'Sullivan this week before Levi drops out and Nikorima gets injured within 1-2 weeks, making the trades redundant. Its a funny ol' game.

    Happy Trails,
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    Post by my tv broke Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:56 am

    Papy this morning on radio said "i'll miss this week but hopefully back for the Souths game".. (which is next round)

    Its a punishing listen other than that, but here is the link -
    https://omny.fm/shows/triplem-brisbane-breakfast/martos-cops-an-intervention-and-gets-stitched-up-b
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    Post by Rotinaj Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:57 am

    I have Bird and Hampton as my centres and roberts in reserves. Looking at trading Roberts and Moylan. Think I'm set on Walsh but for the other trade tossing up between getting Peachey and looking down my centres or holding Moylan and getting Haas from Turpin/BSmith and risking it with no CTR cover.

    Is Peachey really worth it or am I overthinking having 3 goodish centers?
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    Post by Mr Snrub Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:14 am

    Rotinaj wrote:I have Bird and Hampton as my centres and roberts in reserves. Looking at trading Roberts and Moylan. Think I'm set on Walsh but for the other trade tossing up between getting Peachey and looking down my centres or holding Moylan and getting Haas from Turpin/BSmith and risking it with no CTR cover.

    Is Peachey really worth it or am I overthinking having 3 goodish centers?

    Personally I think it's good to have depth in the worst position. Peachey also covers MID in case you get a late out too.

    You could aim for a more genuine keeper and worry about the CTR depth when you need to but I don't think it's a bad idea to have good depth because suspensions and injuries can quickly make your Peachey move a fantastic one.
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    Post by Aardvark Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:15 am

    Rotinaj wrote:I have Bird and Hampton as my centres and roberts in reserves. Looking at trading Roberts and Moylan. Think I'm set on Walsh but for the other trade tossing up between getting Peachey and looking down my centres or holding Moylan and getting Haas from Turpin/BSmith and risking it with no CTR cover.

    Is Peachey really worth it or am I overthinking having 3 goodish centers?

    Overthinking it at this stage I reckon, odds are you'll be forced to trade at some point so try and deal with it then
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:22 am

    Having to play Roberts for a few weeks, the only thing that makes me feel OKAY about it is having traded Peachey in 2-3 weeks ago, even if Roberts can eek out a 20 Peachey should get around 50 considering Tino is out this weekend.
    Cheers for that post re Papz hoping to be back next week, makes me feel better about keeping him even though it would feel so bloody good to see Haas in there instead of him! If Haas wasn't going to play origin I would've pulled the trigger tbh.

    (C)aptain locked in and only have 18 players if Tedesco plays with Oates as the 18th lol, so no real loophole opportunities either. Good luck everyone!
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    Post by Chewie Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:30 am

    What's with the plus/minus vote thingy instead of TUs and TDs?

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