NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 42 - To'o go back to Milf? CHaN anyone answer this question?

filthridden wrote:

I want to trade out Egan but between him and Turpin, Turps has to go and I can't justify trading out two green dots.

Yep I'd totally trade out Turpin first. Egan still likely plays 80 and has a 50-55 in him somewhere.

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:

Respectfully, shutup. Congrats on the win, but there's nothing worse then when you come on here and start having a sook about the 'biased' refs. Just put that shit in the souffs forums or whatever, not here.

I don’t have a problem overall with the ref last night. I just can’t believe we didn’t get a single set restart! I’ll say it when it happens to other teams as well.

The Goat Boys wrote:Bring in Haas and Moses and take the Simo 26
Or Haas and Walsh

Well given I'm planning on playing 16 so I can do the trades I want, obviously I'd take the 26 and bring in Haas and Moses.

Mulvy wrote:

Sorry, thought I'd bump this.... the thread seems to have been derailed by today's earlier game and the outstanding performance of last night's match officials.

Thoughts?

Okay, I'm at a desktop now so can put a few words down.  I also convinced myself yesterday on trading Pappy for Haas and Turpin for Moses.  In your situation it looks quite acceptable because you have Turbo also.  If I went through with it, I'd only be running, Laurie, Ted and Hampton with Simo as EMG, so far more dangerous.  However, it still looked appealing and acceptable to me and made most of my team look amazing quite frankly.  

If I convinced myself on Haas and holding Pap, I would downgrade Leniu to Verrills or Walsh.  Like you, I'm not sold on Walsh and his situation, but he'll make quick coin.  Going this way, it looks like Moses is out of reach for me for a couple of weeks.  I'm okay with that if we knew for certain Pappy was back next week.  If I keep him and he's out again, I'll be annoyed.  If I trade him though however and he is back next week, I think I'd be less annoyed.  My thinking as I mentioned yesterday, the gap that Pap has made and what Haas has lost is 302K and all it costs is a trade and 7K.  That sold me.  

I listened to that radio bit of Pap, and he said just that, he's hopeful of returning next week.  Didn't seem to me clear cut either way though.  I find it hard for him to keep that average up though compared to Haas who can do it easily.  I still don't know what the answer is, and will more than likely play safe and get Verrills or Walsh and get Haas and miss Moses.  In your situation though, I don't know if losing Pappy is worth it for Fog.  Can you just get Haas while keeping Pap?  I feel though, Moses on the other hand is a different kettle of fish.  

I'm torn though and really want to have the nads to cut him and hope he has a couple of quiet games.  If this Laurie news had any credibility however, it would lock in Walsh to get a WFB scorer, but it's all a rumor so can't base thinking around that.  I know none of that helps at all.

Mulvy wrote:

No don't need a half and I can afford more but I think the Fog is value and rd 13 and money left over will get me Koro.

Okay, this might make it worth it.

The Goat Boys wrote:Bring in Haas and Moses and take the Simo 26
Or Haas and Walsh

Haas and Moses, no contest.

Rabbits21 wrote:

I’ll say it when it happens to other teams as well.

Judging by the mood in the room, I'm guessing most would prefer if you just didn't?

Cini very close to debut. Will be on the wing when he gets the call up.

wolfking wrote:

Okay, I'm at a desktop now so can put a few words down.  I also convinced myself yesterday on trading Pappy for Haas and Turpin for Moses.  In your situation it looks quite acceptable because you have Turbo also.  If I went through with it, I'd only be running, Laurie, Ted and Hampton with Simo as EMG, so far more dangerous.  However, it still looked appealing and acceptable to me and made most of my team look amazing quite frankly.  

If I convinced myself on Haas and holding Pap, I would downgrade Leniu to Verrills or Walsh.  Like you, I'm not sold on Walsh and his situation, but he'll make quick coin.  Going this way, it looks like Moses is out of reach for me for a couple of weeks.  I'm okay with that if we knew for certain Pappy was back next week.  If I keep him and he's out again, I'll be annoyed.  If I trade him though however and he is back next week, I think I'd be less annoyed.  My thinking as I mentioned yesterday, the gap that Pap has made and what Haas has lost is 302K and all it costs is a trade and 7K.  That sold me.  

I listened to that radio bit of Pap, and he said just that, he's hopeful of returning next week.  Didn't seem to me clear cut either way though.  I find it hard for him to keep that average up though compared to Haas who can do it easily.  I still don't know what the answer is, and will more than likely play safe and get Verrills or Walsh and get Haas and miss Moses.  In your situation though, I don't know if losing Pappy is worth it for Fog.  Can you just get Haas while keeping Pap?  I feel though, Moses on the other hand is a different kettle of fish.  

I'm torn though and really want to have the nads to cut him and hope he has a couple of quiet games.  If this Laurie news had any credibility however, it would lock in Walsh to get a WFB scorer, but it's all a rumor so can't base thinking around that.  I know none of that helps at all.

I agree in your case your back three is a bit scary if you don't have Pappy in it.

Turpin or Smith trade out first?

The Goat Boys wrote:Bring in Haas and Moses and take the Simo 26
Or Haas and Walsh

I'm taking the 26 and brining in the same two.

Been tossing up Fog Vs Moses all week. Sometimes writing stuff down helps....

The $100k price difference worth around 8-9 points.   Will Moses outscore Fog by 8-9 points for the rest of the year?

Fog Vs Moses

2020 average: 49.6 Vs 56.3 [6.9 diff]
2021 average: 46.9 Vs 54.3 [7.4 diff]
2021 average if scaled to 80mins:  50.4 Vs 60.1 [9.7 diff]  Pick Moses!

BUT

Fog has GK plus extra in play kicking this year. Worth around 7 points on his 2020 average
Moses has lost some KM to Brown.  Worth around loss of 4 points on his 2020 average.

In other words, if adjust 2020 for this years kicking, then FoG 2020 better than Moses 2020!  Pick Fog!

YET

Here we are with Moses now averaging almost 10 points more this year than FoG (assuming 80 minute games).  

So, what Else is Going On?

Both FoG and Moses are down about 4-5 tackles per week. Strange.
FoG is down in all attacking stats. T, TS, TA, LB, LBA, MG.  [Not expected with better forward pack]
Moses is up by almost 2 tackle busts per game (ie 6 fantasy points)

So, I'm now left wondering

Which of these apparent changes is sustainable?  Moses higher TBs or Fogs lower attacking stats?

One Last Thing

In Moses favour is more likely season keeper.
In Fog's favour is the $100k cash will help with picking up a fallen gun (Koro, Grant etc).

TLDR: Fog Vs Moses.  I still don't know.

Rabbits21 wrote:

I don’t have a problem overall with the ref last night. I just can’t believe we didn’t get a single set restart! I’ll say it when it happens to other teams as well.

I think the room feels that it's getting a little bit tedious.

Harping on about how bad the refs are is my least favourite bit of professional (and amateur) sports. Generally teams lose because they weren't good enough (yeah yeah I understand decisions can occasionally impact the result).

By all means get outraged on your couch or at the game and shout all you want, even have a little whine on here but don't bang on about it at length after every Souths game

I personally like the excited/outraged caps post after the game but not so much the other 10 or so posts about how the refs are always 'agin ya'

Rotinaj wrote:Turpin or Smith trade out first?

Cameron's a keeper mate, trade Turpin.

Wait you mean Reimus? trade Turpin.

Wait you mean Brandon? Um, trade Turpin.

Jumping Marlin wrote:Been tossing up Fog Vs Moses all week. Sometimes writing stuff down helps....

The $100k price difference worth around 8-9 points.   Will Moses outscore Fog by 8-9 points for the rest of the year?

Fog Vs Moses

2020 average: 49.6 Vs 56.3 [6.9 diff]
2021 average: 46.9 Vs 54.3 [7.4 diff]
2021 average if scaled to 80mins:  50.4 Vs 60.1 [9.7 diff]  Pick Moses!

BUT

Fog has GK plus extra in play kicking this year. Worth around 7 points on his 2020 average
Moses has lost some KM to Brown.  Worth around loss of 4 points on his 2020 average.

In other words, if adjust 2020 for this years kicking, then FoG 2020 better than Moses 2020!  Pick Fog!

YET



Here we are with Moses now averaging almost 10 points more this year than FoG (assuming 80 minute games).  

So, what Else is Going On?

Both FoG and Moses are down about 4-5 tackles per week. Strange.
FoG is down in all attacking stats. T, TS, TA, LB, LBA, MG.  [Not expected with better forward pack]
Moses is up by almost 2 tackle busts per game (ie 6 fantasy points)

So, I'm now left wondering

Which of these apparent changes is sustainable?  Moses higher TBs or Fogs lower attacking stats?

One Last Thing

In Moses favour is more likely season keeper.
In Fog's favour is the $100k cash will help with picking up a fallen gun (Koro, Grant etc).

TLDR: Fog Vs Moses.  I still don't know.

One thing that ive noticed between the two. Moses seems to be hanging around more waiting for an offload in play up until the last. Where as Fog is seems positioned away ready to set up the next play. Potentially where moses is getting the extra TBs from with a couple of extra touches

my tv broke wrote:

Its actually a tricky one but I'm holding BS9 because he can play football.

Watch Turps go 60+ tonight.

If Haas scores the same or better than him I will be happy and serene......actually even if he outscores Haas I will still feel better

Rotinaj wrote:Turpin or Smith trade out first?

Smith has retired gotta get him out

I'd personally go Turpin before he starts bleeding cash

Mulvy wrote:

Yeah happy with the trade ins and getting rid of Egan.

I suppose it's just the Pappy trade out, which no one really has the answer to.

Personally I don’t like the Papy trade out, however it’s more a horses for courses type of action.
I can see merit in it in some cases.
The trades you propose look good, however as mentioned you probably don’t need Fogarty.

The Goat Boys wrote:Bring in Haas and Moses and take the Simo 26
Or Haas and Walsh

Haas and Moses everyday.
Lock them in, great trades.