by Mulvy Tue May 18, 2021 10:04 am
Anyone want to check my logic here? If you're bored of centre talk, scroll past now. For those with the same problem, could be helpful.
Centres are Bird, Peachey and Roberts. The way I see it, there are three options, all viewed through the lens of how many points scored over the next three weeks and how many trades used.
1. No trade. Roberts potentially could be back next week according to casualty ward, or not at all. If I hold Roberts, He potentially gives me zero points in the next three weeks, or potentially 15 points in rd 12 and 13.
So option 1. 0-30 points. Zero trades.
2. Trade Roberts to a rd13 centre. If I did this, I suspect said player won't score as well as Peachey and Bird long term, so they would be first to go for a rd17 player when bye trading. But it would give me 25-35 points for the three weeks (Peachey is only out the next two weeks but I would play all three of them in rd13 of course).
So option 2. 75-105 points. Two trades.
3. Trade Roberts to a rd17 centre. I would try and make it a keeper (ie good JS) like Manu for example. Would get two scores of 30-40 points. If indeed I went Manu, has the advantage of Manu potentially into FB if Teddy is rested for any matches over Origin or the rest of the year (Robbo doesn't mind a rd25 Teddy resting).
So option 3. 60-80 points. One trade.
(There is a fourth option of trade Peachey to another centre, but it doesn't net me any more points than options 2 or 3 and I'm still left with Roberts in my team. Selling Peachey frees up cash, but I don't need it for my planned trades).
Looking at that, option 2 looks like the poorest. Potentially only 45 more points than option 1 for two trades. Potentially gives up to 105 more points, but I reckon I could get more points using those two trades to sideways trade guns in the bye rounds or keeping for carnage in the run home.
With option 3, I've only looked at scores over the next three weeks, you probably can't discount their rd17 score. Also option 1 means I still have James Roberts. Hmmm. I guess you can't even call option 1 zero trades because ultimately I'll be trading him, probably to a rd 17 player. This appears to make option 3 stand out. The big risk being rd17 is over seven weeks away and more chances for an injury or suspension.
I think based on that I'm leaning toward option 3, although I'm almost certain some of my arguments are probably flawed to some extent. Thoughts greatly appreciated.