NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 63 - The Gift of Hynesight

Captain CHN this week could go tohu for the safe 60 but raiders got donkeys and I have a feeling Corey will run a muck

Mulvy wrote:

Whilst this is true, I think there could be a fair bit more shit served up before they turn it around. I'm coming around to selling him. Others have asked well which hooker do you sell him to with no standouts other than Cook/Grant who play origin? I think they're asking the wrong question. It should be which player to sell him to. I suspect most of us have two of Koro, Mahoney, Macca, BS9, Watson etc and an intention to buy Verills. Brailey can become Harris/Lolo/CHN/SJ etc. Balances the bench out too.

Yeah I was thinking anyone serious about selling him must have a bunch of HKs already. Community team just has Brailey and Watson, the latter being more valuable as MID/bench.

The other guys all miss Rd 17 too though and similarly priced, so could make a case for selling them instead of Brailey. Maybe feels easier to trade Brailey since he's made a bunch of money and didn't cost a recent trade to bring in?

Chris nz wrote:Thoughts on rapana for a Rd 17 pod ?? Dpp would be handy and wouldn't be that bad to have in emgs of final team

I think he is a good choice, will score fairly well whenever you need him, good job security, plays rd17 and dpp. But I think most won't be able to afford such an expensive 20/21st man. Probable pass for me unless he drops his price, significantly, between now and rd17.

Captain Cleary for me as he'll be coming off a convincing motm win over the maroons so he'll be on a high. Notice I used a lower case m for the maroons because they deserve no respect.

Cleary to be named in the 18-21 tonight to complicate matters.

VC selection needs to be on point this weekend

WT Winfield wrote:


The other guys all miss Rd 17 too though and similarly priced, so could make a case for selling them instead of Brailey. Maybe feels easier to trade Brailey since he's made a bunch of money and didn't cost a recent trade to bring in?

This may factor into for some, but for me it's as simple as eight of these guys are going and two are staying:

Brailey, Watson, Moses, Fogarty, Burton/Bird, Laurie, Hynes, Fitzgibbon, Jones, Alvaro.

I guess I could add Koro and Mahoney to the mix but really Brailey is up against those other guys above rather than Koro and Mahoney who I prefer.

Edit: Obviously I'd prefer to wait on that decision as long as possible, like I will be with some of those other guys, but unfortunately with Brailey the hold/sell decision needs to be made this week.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Looks like 12 of the top 1,000 made the cojones move of selling Cleary.

Similar to the old tactic of selling Smith during the Origin period.

Not a bad ploy but needs to be carefully managed so you don't spend the cash needed to get them back in with 1 trade.

There was a study done backed up by medical facts that the body feels better playing soon after origin & you start to feel the bumps & bruises 3-4 days after origin so imo the origin players that have Friday games will feel good & want to play. Of course the mind set of coaches has changed over the last couple of years where they err on the side of caution so someone like Turbo who has a history of hammy injuries may be rested but I'd say he'll be keen as to play.

Little bit of Tuesday morning analytics for everyone to benchmark against.

I've had a look at the top 1000 ranked teams:

They have an average of 13.3 trades left and an average salary cap (team value + bank) of $13.6mill.

The top 4 teams have between 8 and 11 trades.

One team worth keeping an eye on: Mt Wellington Mantis, they are ranked 30th have 16 trades left and the highest team value of $14,659,000.

Let me know if you have any specific queries on this dataset, happy to dive in on it.

ynot wrote:Little bit of Tuesday morning analytics for everyone to benchmark against.

I've had a look at the top 1000 ranked teams:

They have an average of 13.3 trades left and an average salary cap (team value + bank) of $13.6mill.

The top 4 teams have between 8 and 11 trades.

One team worth keeping an eye on: Mt Wellington Mantis, they are ranked 30th have 16 trades left and the highest team value of $14,659,000.

Let me know if you have any specific queries on this dataset, happy to dive in on it.

How did you manage to get all of that data?

Oz Sport Mad wrote:

Similar to the old tactic of selling Smith during the Origin period.

Not a bad ploy but needs to be carefully managed so you don't spend the cash needed to get them back in with 1 trade.

Yeah but CS9 wasn't 1.2m so you could buy him back. I did this years ago & brought in Macca but I ran out of trades (as per usual) but in that year Macca ended up killing it in the run home & outscored Smith & Farah so it was more luck than by design. I think those who sold Cleary are crazy loco.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Cleary to be named in the 18-21 tonight to complicate matters.

VC selection needs to be on point this weekend

I'm sure Penrith will name all their Origin players but they're allowed an extended bench up to about 27 so there'll be no clarity. It would be handier if they played first rather than second, for sure.

Think I might Captain (or at least Vice-Captain) Angus.

ynot wrote:Little bit of Tuesday morning analytics for everyone to benchmark against.

I've had a look at the top 1000 ranked teams:

They have an average of 13.3 trades left and an average salary cap (team value + bank) of $13.6mill.

The top 4 teams have between 8 and 11 trades.

One team worth keeping an eye on: Mt Wellington Mantis, they are ranked 30th have 16 trades left and the highest team value of $14,659,000.

Let me know if you have any specific queries on this dataset, happy to dive in on it.

Outstanding work!

I have 14 trades so that's good. Team value is probably a misleading stat due to some having cash itb? Currently I'm 12.8 mil but have 600k itb. This changes however every time I reverse trades to try something different. Wait, you said team value + bank; I didn't see that, or know it was possible to pull that data?

Mulvy wrote:

This may factor into for some, but for me it's as simple as eight of these guys are going and two are staying:

Brailey, Watson, Moses, Fogarty, Burton/Bird, Laurie, Hynes, Fitzgibbon, Jones, Alvaro.

I guess I could add Koro and Mahoney to the mix but really Brailey is up against those other guys above rather than Koro and Mahoney who I prefer.

Some aggressive trading, I like a lot of those guys Remembering your rank, I dunno wtf I'm doing in this conversation anyway. Going hard at the next bye probably the right move.

Mahoney and Brailey the 2 I'd keep if I had a gun to my head. Moses probably 3rd.

Rotinaj wrote:

How did you manage to get all of that data?

Setup some code to scrape each users squads each week, then count the changes week to week.

White Lightning wrote:

I think those who sold Cleary are crazy loco.

It's not for me, but I think if you have a solid plan it could be managed. You could buy two guns for Cleary, people are max trading over origin anyway, make one of your rd17 trades a cashout, bring back for rd18, hope he doesn't banner in the interim. Would pay of huge if Cleary got a couple of rests/injured/suspended. But not for me. I want to captain him every week he is available and not risk being unable to get him back in.

BREAKING NEWS


With just over 24hrs till the big game

DCE - has been isolated and wont train with the team after showing possible covid symtoms and will wait on test results

Grant - tripped on motel elevator going back to his room after breakfast which when stopped wasn't flush withte floor and is having scans on his achilles

Munster - Possible low grade hamstring tear bending over to pat a dog

DFifita - Having scans on knee after suspected huper extention kicking a ball back to the crowd during a fan session.

WELCOME TO MAROONS CAMP THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH

White Lightning wrote:

Yeah but CS9 wasn't 1.2m so you could buy him back. I did this years ago & brought in Macca but I ran out of trades (as per usual) but in that year Macca ended up killing it in the run home & outscored Smith & Farah so it was more luck than by design. I think those who sold Cleary are crazy loco.

I can see selling Cleary working very specifically IF it was to Hynes and IF you figure Cleary is missing two games and IF you have a shitload of trades left.

You want Hynes to score 100+ points and make 100k+ cash in those two weeks then you sell him back to Cleary.

Even then there's a danger that Cleary plays this week and scores in one game what Beans does in two, but at least you've made a bit of money (not enough for two trades though)

Mulvy wrote:

Outstanding work!

I have 14 trades so that's good. Team value is probably a misleading stat due to some having cash itb? Currently I'm 12.8 mil but have 600k itb. This changes however every time I reverse trades to try something different. Wait, you said team value + bank; I didn't see that, or know it was possible to pull that data?

It only counts locked in trades after the week is complete - so this is up to the end of week 13. Won't count intermediate trades that aren't locked in.

It should be total team value + bank for locked in trades.

Mulvy wrote:

This may factor into for some, but for me it's as simple as eight of these guys are going and two are staying:

Brailey, Watson, Moses, Fogarty, Burton/Bird, Laurie, Hynes, Fitzgibbon, Jones, Alvaro.

I guess I could add Koro and Mahoney to the mix but really Brailey is up against those other guys above rather than Koro and Mahoney who I prefer.

Edit: Obviously I'd prefer to wait on that decision as long as possible, like I will be with some of those other guys, but unfortunately with Brailey the hold/sell decision needs to be made this week.

I would keep the ctrs because who wants to trade out ctrs for round 17 you could them to fund players in other positions but then you're short on ctrs. From that list I'd sell Moses, Hynes (when he's back to the bench), Fitz, Jones & Alvaro