NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 69 - Nice

It's absolutely pointless making plans yet, but let me share my plans.

Tentatively Fog -> SJ and Matto -> someone who plays MID and/or EDG since I've yet again snookered myself on positions. Josh Jackson early favourite, despite how unsexy that sounds.

Will be tempted by Laurie -> RTS as an alternative as well, maybe leaving Matto a week to play 60 more minutes and lose even more value.

Brailey, Watson leaking cash and a few other problems will have to wait until 4-trade round

my tv broke wrote:

hmm. i can max trade and still have 4 trades ahead of round 19. good stuff.

Me too...difference being it looks like I need to

Shady2K wrote:

Not a lot of cash outs looking good right now who are useful later on

Elliott out for a month or two helps with Doorey’s JS as well. Maybe Suaalii as a Teddy handcuff but both of them are closer to 300k than base

Chambers probably the best option.

my tv broke wrote:

hmm. i can max trade and still have 4 trades ahead of round 19. good stuff.

Yeah same. I think I'd like maybe 5 going into round 19 though, not sure.

At the moment I have the following plan, thoughts?

Pre-trades got 94k and 9 trades left, using two this week and one next week

This week: Hynes and TPJ to Tohu and JMK - leaving 116k in the bank

Next week: Brailey/Watson to a MID like TKO/AFB/Tapine - trying to free up money to get Fifita in after origin, this MID would be my 17th/18th man so it doesn't have to be a keeper necessarily, and upside is preferred.

Bethany_B wrote:At the moment I have the following plan, thoughts?

That’s stalking. It’s a crime I think, but you do you

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:

That’s stalking. It’s a crime I think, but you do you

Better be careful, otherwise you’ll get the NSW counter terrorism unit knocking on your door

Very tentative plan is

Hynes + Matto -> Turbo + AFB.

Sick of not owning Turbo, and AFB is good value for R17/18th man on the run home.

Not sure who to sell first out of Lucy and Matto, but I think Matto has to go if he isn't playing 80. That can obviously change if Lucy is dropped altogether.

Trying to get a plan together for R17 and beyond, as that last round has thrown up more questions than answers.

At the moment I'd break my squad up into the following:

Definite keepers

Cleary
Tohu
iPap
Moses
Averillo
Teddy
Crichton
McCullough
SJ
Simo (as 19th man WFB cover)

Probable keepers

Walsh
Fog
Schuster

Definite sells

Jones (unless he can get CTR dual)
Roberts
Hynes

No man's land

Brailey
Watson
Lucy
Matto
Kelly

Some of those will probably need to stick around for the year, it's just a matter of deciphering which ones at the moment.

If everything goes to plan, I think I'd like my final squad to look like this by R~19-20:

Cook/BS9/Grant/Hunt (Brailey probably gets one more week to bounce back)
Tohu iPap Haas
DiFi Schuster
Cleary Moses
Avo Peachy/Bird/R17 keeper CTR
Teddy Turbo Walsh

Macca Crichton SJ Fog

AFB Verills Simo Chambers

That's 8 trades from now & 9 R17 players, so 5 left over (13 remaining).

In an ideal world Brailey bounces back leaving the following 7 trades:

Matto -> DiFi (-258k gap)
Lucy -> AFB (+55k gap)
Hynes -> Turbo (-83k gap)
Roberts -> Chambers (+44k gap)
Jones -> Verills (+135k gap approx. after one more price rise from Jones)
Kelly -> Peachy (-155k gap)
Watson -> Haas (-84k gap)

So, only a 346K gap to do all that with not much cash coming in. Oh dear.

The only way those numbers work out is by going Hynes to Latrell and hoping he goes on a run, and Kelly to someone like Lomax instead.

Or, sell Watson to someone like Tapine/SST instead of Haas, go Kelly to Lomax once he bottoms out, and Hynes to Turbo just about works out.

Might be a bit long and rambly, but anyone have any thoughts on that?

Trades / Team Value Round 15 Update:

Top n	Avg. Trades Left	Avg. Team Value	Avg. Bank	Avg. Salary Cap	Avg. Points Scored
10	7	13.75m	98.6k	13.85m	15,225
100	9.3	13.7m	111.5k	13.81m	15,015
1000	9.7	13.53m	121.8k	13.65m	14,719

ynot wrote:Trades / Team Value Round 15 Update:

Top n	Avg. Trades Left	Avg. Team Value	Avg. Bank	Avg. Salary Cap	Avg. Points Scored
10	7	13.75m	98.6k	13.85m	15,225
100	9.3	13.7m	111.5k	13.81m	15,015
1000	9.7	13.53m	121.8k	13.65m	14,719

Was expecting a 9-10 average across but the top 10 going hard.

4 is the minimum trades left at this point, so you can runout by R17.

Hynes to Turbo a great trade

Here are your top few worst trades in the top 1000 (one week points difference only):

Dearden + Reimis -> Lawton + Timoko, -41
Matterson + Watson -> Lolo + Fusitu'a, -38 ???????
Moses + Laurie -> Reynolds + Tevaga, -37
Matterson + Moses + Fog + Laurie -> SJ + Reynolds + Simo + Curran, -33 (I love this one, big balls)
BHunt -> Averillo

I've left a few out because they contain cash outs, so obviously wouldn't be playing. Not as good as last week.

ynot wrote:Here are your top few worst trades in the top 1000 (one week points difference only):

Dearden + Reimis -> Lawton + Timoko, -41
Matterson + Watson -> Lolo + Fusitu'a, -38 ???????
Moses + Laurie -> Reynolds + Tevaga, -37
Matterson + Moses + Fog + Laurie -> SJ + Reynolds + Simo + Curran, -33 (I love this one, big balls)
BHunt -> Averillo

I've left a few out because they contain cash outs, so obviously wouldn't be playing. Not as good as last week.

This is great stuff.

The 4-trade one was ok actually, aside from Moses -> Reynolds he kinda nailed it, 3/4 ain't bad. The top two are just wow though

ynot wrote:Here are your top few worst trades in the top 1000 (one week points difference only):

Dearden + Reimis -> Lawton + Timoko, -41
Matterson + Watson -> Lolo + Fusitu'a, -38 ???????
Moses + Laurie -> Reynolds + Tevaga, -37
Matterson + Moses + Fog + Laurie -> SJ + Reynolds + Simo + Curran, -33 (I love this one, big balls)
BHunt -> Averillo

I've left a few out because they contain cash outs, so obviously wouldn't be playing. Not as good as last week.

Love your work mate. Reading these makes me feel a bit better about my decisions haha

Khany wrote:Hynes to Turbo a great trade

Confident it is that simple to do it without seeing Pappy go around again ?

Hynes to Turbo does work well, especially playing the Dogs next round. Misses 17 and a chance he misses 18 again, so might hold off. Saying that, Pap would be back by 18 anyway so Hynes probably useless by then. Actually makes a lot of sense if he plays next round.

Revraiser wrote:

Confident it is that simple to do it without seeing Pappy go around again ?

I realise both pappy and beanz are most likely going to start losing money next game. Turbo is just presenting a fairly strong argument atm

Khany wrote:Hynes to Turbo a great trade

I've got Hynes, Walsh& Teddy with Simo, & Laurie as back-up atm.
With the possibility of Walsh and Teddy getting a rest in rd16 or rd18 I'm going to hold off on trading Hynes out.
Turbo could be rested in these rounds as well.
I already played 2 rounds with 16 players and don't want to do it again

ynot wrote:Trades / Team Value Round 15 Update:

Top n	Avg. Trades Left	Avg. Team Value	Avg. Bank	Avg. Salary Cap	Avg. Points Scored
10	7	13.75m	98.6k	13.85m	15,225
100	9.3	13.7m	111.5k	13.81m	15,015
1000	9.7	13.53m	121.8k	13.65m	14,719

I look forward to this post each week!

How hard would it be for you to get a gauge on the average number of Round 17 bye players each group has?
I imagine it might be fairly difficult - but if not, I'd definitely be curious (especially with such low available trades in the top 10)