NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 71 - Clearasil or Cleary hold

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Lodge having a green dot and the Warriors under his name is cruel indeed

Stings for R17 mate

Loved hanging onto Lodge this year, went great guns for his price after his return

Great league signing for Warriors, when the Klem for Lodge talk originally started I was like, Broncos robbing Knights swapping the pair but this season, Lodge has been by far the better player

Wait, is Lodge playing this weekend ?

SaveTheCheerleader wrote:Wait, is Lodge playing this weekend ?

Nope

Dttragic2016 wrote:

Oh man, kills me to hear that haha. We started as a content site then quickly became a sport data site but I've been kinda lazy to merge them both so have just kept it as a separate site (Edge). It has first & anytime tryscorer odds comparison and historical and model odds + draftstars projections. We've got some cricket stuff but I'll brush that up next month. Happy to chat further in the Draftstars thread or PMs mate, I work on this full-time now with a couple of data guys so love chatting about it!

I've gone through your site a few times trying to find the tech underlying your model. Do you have a whitepaper or something around? I've done a bit of AI/ML stuff in the past and am always keen on more - particularly applied to sports goodness.

Dttragic2016 wrote:

Oh man, kills me to hear that haha. We started as a content site then quickly became a sport data site but I've been kinda lazy to merge them both so have just kept it as a separate site (Edge). It has first & anytime tryscorer odds comparison and historical and model odds + draftstars projections. We've got some cricket stuff but I'll brush that up next month. Happy to chat further in the Draftstars thread or PMs mate, I work on this full-time now with a couple of data guys so love chatting about it!

What’s the site mate? Always interested in this type of stuff. Was involved a while back (on the periphery) in a Bayesian model that simulated Olympic sports results based on, but improving the models used in X-box etc, to match up players. Would have been a great academic publication (which is what I now do) but for the fact the guys scraped all the data that went into the model and so that was a stumbling block. Always thought it coulda been a great gambling tool. Anyway, post the link again so I can check it out.

robelgordo wrote:

I wrote the grub index! (true story)

I reckon the guy who got 4 weeks for eye gouging might outrank JJ.

Who would be the first player you’d induct into a grub hall of fame?

It’s tough as there’s so many, but Greg Bird always bothered me.

It was sharks couldn’t have been grubbier when they were knocking around with him, Gallen, Pomeroy, then they go and add Todd Carney, Mick Innis. Northies Grubs (Sorry Revs!)

Welshy wrote:

Stings for R17 mate

Loved hanging onto Lodge this year, went great guns for his price after his return

Great league signing for Warriors, when the Klem for Lodge talk originally started I was like, Broncos robbing Knights swapping the pair but this season, Lodge has been by far the better player

R17??!! 

Why wouldn’t he be playing in Round 17? Surely he’s straight into the team for next weeks game

TU:Papali’i
TD:Fifita

Finch wrote:Anyone picking up Townsend? Should be good for at least 50+, will do bulk kicking this week, has a longer boot than Niko (Who isn't even playing this week)


Edit: CHT is still a while away, and there was talk of him maybe playing hooker as well

It will be interesting to see Townsend at the warriors. It’s actually the way the sharks play as you can see SJ is thriving in Townsends old role and gets 400-500km every weekend. I don’t think warriors ever have a one kicker for everything

GreenMachine wrote:

Who would be the first player you’d induct into a grub hall of fame?

It’s tough as there’s so many, but Greg Bird always bothered me.

It was sharks couldn’t have been grubbier when they were knocking around with him, Gallen, Pomeroy, then they go and add Todd Carney, Mick Innis. Northies Grubs (Sorry Revs!)

I'd agree that Bird would be at the top.

Bird, Gallen, Thaiday, Ennis, Betham, Rapana, JWH, McGuire, Dylan Walker, Mick Crocker, Josh Reynolds.... off the top of my head

Wouldn't be surprised to see a big score from JDB tonight, would like to pick him up but hard to work it into the plans as I need a couple more rd 17 players

L-Jimmy wrote:

I've gone through your site a few times trying to find the tech underlying your model. Do you have a whitepaper or something around? I've done a bit of AI/ML stuff in the past and am always keen on more - particularly applied to sports goodness.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

What’s the site mate? Always interested in this type of stuff. Was involved a while back (on the periphery) in a Bayesian model that simulated Olympic sports results based on, but improving the models used in X-box etc, to match up players. Would have been a great academic publication (which is what I now do) but for the fact the guys scraped all the data that went into the model and so that was a stumbling block. Always thought it coulda been a great gambling tool. Anyway, post the link again so I can check it out.

Oh wow, didn't realise there was so much interest in here about this stuff. Just to clarify, Sport Tech Daily is a company I launched last year and I oversee the stats/modelling stuff. Site is sporttechdaily.com & the data stuff is on edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

A couple of the articles explaining our work & how to use Edge are below too. As I mentioned, happy to chat further in the Draftstars thread & PMs whenever, always feel guilty posting too much on the main thread haha

https://sporttechdaily.com/analytics/predictive-analytics-applied-to-rugby-league-looking-at-try-scorers-in-the-nrl/
https://sporttechdaily.com/analytics/how-to-get-the-best-out-of-edge-in-2021/

Do we think DCE backs up in round 18? Tempted to go him over Fifita,thoughts?

Khany wrote:Not that it affects many, Tago is expected to play ctr, with May to bench or possibly left right out

Really, I've got both. Who to play...

L-Jimmy wrote:

Jeez that's a poor call. Shoulder charge to the head of an opposing 5/8th? Nasty stuff. Should've been sent and stay off for a month.

If you're trying to send a signal, then send it. Half measures cut little mustard.

Very poor call should be a month but it’s the Roosters so I expected this that he would only get 1 week. Not surprising.

Why does Flegler have a red X in the app?

https://i.servimg.com/u/f14/19/91/07/28/d8c4de1

Dttragic2016 wrote:



Oh wow, didn't realise there was so much interest in here about this stuff. Just to clarify, Sport Tech Daily is a company I launched last year and I oversee the stats/modelling stuff. Site is sporttechdaily.com & the data stuff is on edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

A couple of the articles explaining our work & how to use Edge are below too. As I mentioned, happy to chat further in the Draftstars thread & PMs whenever, always feel guilty posting too much on the main thread haha

https://sporttechdaily.com/analytics/predictive-analytics-applied-to-rugby-league-looking-at-try-scorers-in-the-nrl/
https://sporttechdaily.com/analytics/how-to-get-the-best-out-of-edge-in-2021/

Interesting, thanks.

A couple of questions leap to mind.
1 - this is a player-only model. Seems like opposition, team mates, team form etc could be useful?
2 - I'd be hella tempted to horserace a lot of these variables, and composite multi-variable models, to help determine variable-player weightings.
3 - There's lot of weight placed on exponential smoothing. This is tricky with messy variables like tries, and poor for trends like minutes played. Tempting to look for bayesian models.

Fun stuff though! Thanks for posting, and I'll keep following!

Random question but what happens to Ryan James? I remember he started the season strongly but i stopped paying attention. Seems like he isnt making the team now?

*not that random as i just saw Broncos may be interested

BBowler wrote:Why does Flegler have a red X in the app?

https://i.servimg.com/u/f14/19/91/07/28/d8c4de1

Head knock at training, looks unlikely to play

L-Jimmy wrote:

Head knock at training, looks unlikely to play

Hes been removed from the 21.