The Betting thread part 2

**Sunday Value NRL Tryscorer Plays** https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

First Try Scorer
Ryan James 81 TAB. Historically, almost as good as Josh Papalii as a try scorer across his career. First game for the Bulldogs, up against a weaker Warriors pack, great value play.
Adam Elliott 41 Neds. Milestone game, showing up as good value compared to our model and has a strong running game!
Jacob Saifiti 67 Neds. We've won on him a few weeks ago, can't believe he's 67 in a game the Knights are favourites!
Braden Uele 67 TAB. In the same mould as Papalii again. Dynamic ball runner, minutes going up last few weeks and first game starting. Love the price for him today.

Anytime Try Scorer
Euan Aitken - 3 Neds. Has been in great form ever since shifting to an edge, great odds according to our model too.
Jake Clifford - 4.5 SB. Model value, scored last weekend & up against a depleted Sharks team with Pearce and Ponga back he should be able to play his natural game!

Only three full rounds of regular season NRL to go. We've got the early week value plays up for tonight on here but as always, check out the edge portal on the sporttechdaily site to find the best price on every player & check out our model's odds so you can find the best plays yourself!

https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

First Tryscorer
Junior Paulo 81 TAB - 81 us great value compared to our model's odds, career strike rate & compared to how other sites have him priced (market value). Needs to stand up with RCG missing in a must win for the Eels.
Marata Niukore 31 SB - taking Matterson's spot on the edge, priced way better than other sites & a strong ball runner.
Heilum Luki 51 Bet365 - great value according to model and market value and definitely passes the eye test with his dynamic running style.
Stefano Uto 67 Bet365 - our man from last week. Amazing value once again and the way he's hitting up the ball, why can't he do it two weeks in a row? We won on him at the same price last week!
Anytime Tryscorer
David Fifita 4, Neds. Up against the Storm, yes. But it's a depleted Storm and Fifita can definitely score tries even if the Titans get hammered.
Alex Johnston 1.82 Topsport - back on the left edge for the Rabbits, really good value value compared to other sites & the model loves him at this price too.
Mitch Barnett 3.75 SB - on the hot left edge for the Knights up against the Dogs.
Matt Burton 2.51 Topsport - strike player on Penrith's left, great value according to model, historical and market numbers.
Euan Aitken 3.5 SB - has been in great tryscoring form ever since shifting to the edge. Up against the Broncos, no reason to think anything will change.

Tom Trbo ruled out! Raiders +15.5 on SB at 1.90! Elsewhere it's already around Raiders +10.5!

Edit:
On topsport, Reuben Garrick 0 tries. This is a great bet for 2 reasons. A - Trbo out, he'll most likely move to fullback. Also, manly is now likely to score less points.

Available in 'full time player tries' on topsport at 1.99

Cheers DT

Metcalf ATS 5.25 Neds & Tracey ATS 3.10 SB - Metcalf starting now and Tracey to the centres, both great value anytime tryscorer plays.

**NRL Friday Night Value Plays**

We've got a few tryscorer plays from our post on Tuesday night to play out tonight + a few clear value plays tonight. As always, check out the edge portal on the sporttechdaily site to get the best price on your player & see our model's odds and career strike rates for free. https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

First Tryscorer
Alex Johnston - 8.5 SB. Back on the left wing for the Rabbits and priced way better than our model thinks he should be, no brainer and juicy odds.
Jai Arrow 67 Bet365 - playing on the edge but priced as a middle. Huge value here.
Josh Papalii 51 Pointsbet - has close to the best tryscoring strike rate of any middle in the comp. 51 up against a Manly team with no Turbo is really good value.

Anytime Tryscorer
Jordan Rapana 3 Pointsbet
Tevita Funa 2.25 SB

Both anytime tryscorer plays are already good value & noticeably better odds on these sites than others. But there's some upside too. CNK might start at FB, shifting Rapana to the wing which makes his price even better. Same deal with Funa, Garrick could move to FB and Funa could play on the wing.

Josh Curran 34 fts on bet365 tomorrow. Really good odds, model odds are 21 and he is 22 or less on other sites! And he was FTS last round!

**NRL Super Saturday Value Plays**

Hoping to hit another big odds value FTS pick today, got a really good feeling about Luki today or Curran tomorrow! As always guys, check out the edge portal on sporttechdaily and would love you to add your own value picks in the comments!
https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

First Try Scorer
Joe Ofahengaue FTS Team 67 TAB
Ryan James 67 TAB
Heilum Luki 51 Bet365
^All 3 much better odds than on other sites, Offa purely a big odds value play but Ryan James has a really strong tryscoring record throughout his career & Luki is playing on the edge and looks a really strong ball runner.

Anytime Tryscorer
Michael Chee Kam 4.5 Neds
Mitch Barnett 4.2 SB
Marata Niukore 4.5 SB
All 3 much better odds than other sites, Chee Kam playing at centre at 4.5 is really good value according to our model, Barnett playing on the lethal left side for the Knights with Ponga back & Niukore just priced wrong by SB IMO if you compare him to Lane's odds.

Value plays for #NRLEelsCowboys:

Holmes FTS 21 on Bet365 - starting winger now!
FTS Condon 67 Bet365 - our model has him priced at half of that, is 36 at best elsewhere!

https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

^Edit: Holmes may play FB as Vossy said on commentary that he's heard that.

Also, Granville v Hampton - Tie @ 1.72 on Pointsbet. in the tryscorer markets section, under player tries head to head (T)

Granville benched and Hampton into the centres. Was originally priced for Granville at centre and Hampton on the wing!

Nothing worse that an after the fact gloat, so I'll mix it up with a loss

**Sunday NRL Value Plays** https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

Today is all about Josh Curran and Euan Aitken! The prices for all our favourite players are in the photo. Key reasoning:

Aitken & Curran have both been in great form the last few weeks and are noticeably higher odds than on the sites we've listed than others + our model loves them too.
JTB & Kerr are more high odds numbers plays but Kerr is one of our favourites for tryscorer bets with the way he plays anyway.
Alex Glenn has actually looked quite good the last couple of weeks and his price (5 for ATS) really stood out. With only 3 games to go, he'll be super motivated to go out on a high.

No Worries wrote:Nothing worse that an after the fact gloat, so I'll mix it up with a loss

nice one mate! Had one of the worst beats of all time yesterday. Had 30 @ 67 on LTS Ryan James. That Okunbor freak try on the last play of the day took the $2k out of my hands haha so glad to see someone else doing well!

Found myself in a purple patch. Put the winnings on this. Now if I could get out of lock down and drop it on a weekend away I'd have a happy wife & happy life

This was my bad beat last week

Smoking NW

Holy shit, nice work nw! I usually make one of these on Tuesday and then every gameday. Last 2 full weeks of NRL, hopefully we can nail another big odds FTS. Def some great value out there this round.

**Value Tryscorer Plays NRL Round 24** https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

There seem to be more early week value plays than usual this round! As always, we update the Edge portal on our sporttechdaily site around 7pm on Tuesday evenings - it's up now. You can compare odds across 6 sites to find the best price + compare to our model's price and each player's historical strike rate to find the best value plays yourself too!

First Try Scorer
Enari Tuala 10 365
Heilum Luki 41 365
Josh Curran 41 365
Reuben Cotter 81

Curran and Luki are value + have been in great tryscoring form. Noticeably higher than other sites too. Cotter doesn't have a great tryscoring record but up against the Dragons, he's priced as if he's a big heavy middle but is an agile lock/hooker so love that price for him. Tuala - on the Knights left edge that they're favouring and noticeably higher odds than other sites!

Anytime Tryscorer
Josh Schuster 3.60 SB
Jacob Host 6.5 365
Connor Watson 7.5 TAB
Jason Taumalolo 13 TAB
Eli Katoa 5.25 Neds
Schuster - value play of the week. 3.60 up against the Dogs for such a skillful player. Great play.
Host & Katoa - should play most of the game from the bench on the edge. Watson 7.50 against the Titans when he's expected to play big mins with no DSaifiti & Klemmer is good value and JT @ 13 is a great bet, significantly higher odds than other sites too.

FTS 2nd Half
Braden Uele 67 TAB
Best value big odds play of the week. One of the top handful of tryscoring forwards in the NRL at 67 against the Broncos for fts 2nd half. Crazy odds.

FTS Team
Jason Taumalolo 67 TAB
Nathan Brown 67 TAB
Nathan Brown is more a numbers play (A good idea could be to bet on him fts team and also lts team incase the Eels only score one try). Jason Taumalolo up against the Dragons paying $67 just to score his team's first try is crazy. Extremely good odds compared to our model, his strike rate & way better price than other sites.

**NRL Thursday Night Value Plays** https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

It's been a bumper last few weeks and we'd love for you to check out the Edge portal on the sporttechdaily site and throw your value tryscorer picks in the comments!

Our picks tonight centre around the Knights left edge - Barnett and Tuala are great from a footy POV, on the preferred edge for Ponga & also happen to be at a good price according to our model.
Connor Watson can be dynamic in attack and will need to step up with Daniel Saifiti & Klemmer out, 67 for first tryscorer is almost double the price you can find on any other site!

PS. Forgot to add this in the graphic but Barnett is on SB, Watson on TAB & Tuala on Bet365.

Feels like deja vu after winning on both Aitken & Curran on Sunday but they're two of our favourite picks again tonight! As always, check out the Edge portal on the Sporttechdaily site for the best odds across 6 sites & our model's value plays. https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

First Try Scorer
Josh Curran, 41 Bet365
Alex Johnston - 7
Jai Arrow - 41, Bet365

Anytime Tryscorer
Euan Aitken - 4 SB
Josh Curran - 5.50 Bet365
James Tedesco - 3 TAB

Curran & Aitken - reasoning similar to last week in that they've been in great form and priced really well compared to our model and other sites.
Arrow continues to be priced wrong by Bet365 - let's make them pay! 31 at best elsewhere and we're getting 41. Model loves this play too.
AJ - left edge for the Rabbits, model loves him at $7
Tedesco - He's literally going to have to carry them on his back if they're to compete tonight with JWH ruled out too. Model likes him at this price and it's way higher odds than his career strike rate too!

**NRL Super Saturday Value Plays** https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/

We've got quite a few plays from Tuesday night to follow today so have tried my best to limit the best value plays today. Taumalolo, Cotter, Nathan Brown have all come in on TAB from Tuesday night - shows the importance of getting in early! As always, share your own tryscorer picks in the comments & check out our Edge portal on the sporttechdaily site!

First Try Scorer
Mikaele Ravalawa 8.5, SB & Playup. This one is mainly based on the model loving the play. Personally I think the Cowboys can score a lot of points today but if the Dragons can play well, Ravalawa is a great pick.
Payne Haas 67 TAB. Best odds elsewhere are 34, if the odds were based on how often he's done it in his career they'd be $20! Great value play and he was the first tryscorer a month ago against the Roosters.
Josh Addo Carr - 7 Topsport, Bet365. Storm are heavy favourites against an understrength Eels team, has been on fire and the model loves this play.

Anytime Try Scorer
Braden Uele 7 - TAB. If his career strike was converted to odds, it'd be $5.55. We're getting $7 here up against a weak Broncos pack. He's 5.50 or less elsewhere, great value IMO.
Jahrome Hughes 2.88 SB. Model has him priced at 2.17 so the 2.88 on offer is great value. $2.60 or less on other sites & he should be fresh coming off a week off due to concussion.

FTS 2nd Half
Braden Uele 67 TAB - will be fresh on the field at the start of the 2nd half, should be priced in the 40s, 67 is a great value play.
Ethan Bullemor 67 TAB. Is a great hole runner, this is more of an instinct play based on his running style and recent form. Best price for him elsewhere is 51 for FTS 2nd half.

**NRL Value Tryscorer Plays** https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

With two massively one-sided games expected today there isn't a lot of value out there. As always, check out our Edge portal on the sporttechdaily site to check out the best price for each player & compare it to our model's prices!

First Try Scorer

Ava Seumanufagai 251 Neds. Purely a numbers play here. Model has him priced at 226 and this can be the big odds play of the day. Strong ball runner, thunderstorms expected so if it is wet the Dogs may be able to compete early.
Morgan Harper 14 on SB. Model has him priced at 12.30 and has been in great form recently.

Anytime Tryscorer
Josh Schuster 3.3 SB- tipped him early in the week, great value even if you look at his price across other sites.
Keiran Foran - 3.4SB - great value according to our model and can see him getting over against his old team
Nathan Cleary 2.54 Topsport - great value according to our model, has been in great tryscoring form this year and up against the Tigers who I expect to get smashed today without Doueihi & Tamou.

Just foumd a $5 bonus bet. Why do I have a $5 bonus bet ? What do you do with a $5 bonus bet ? Have resisted the urge to split it and thrown in on the Tigers 1-12 at $21