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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 76 - Register for the Eliminator

    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:07 am

    I’m just telling myself that next week it’s iPap that plays 80 while Matto scores 39 in 59 minutes. That way he was definitely a sell. And I can watch CHN, Brailey and Watson all score 40 today and feel ok about it.

    On Watson, 50/50 he starts in the halves today?

    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:13 am

    my tv broke wrote:

    No it wont work.

    Well it will, they will allow you to place the bet. But the any time try scorer is cancelled out by the first try scorer. Their algos are smart enough to understand when one leg depends on another and basically null value it.

    I actually think they reduce the odds slightly as a "lol dont be a dickhead"

    I always think its funny when i see people create these huge same game multis with a bunch of legs rhat essentially add nothing to the odds. Like adding "storm to win" with "storm 13+" is exactly the same as just having "storm 13+".

    I would have thought they would be smart enough too, but in all the bookies I have ever know, the algorithms prevent you from these types of bets. It comes back with something like "related outcomes" or something. SO Im a bit intrigued as to how this will play out if they actually let that bet go through and the projected win amount actually equates to the multiple of the individual bets. If they let you place the bet, and they have tallied the return, then it would have to be in their fine print that the bet gets void.

    And if their algorithm is smart enough to pick up on these things after the fact, you have to wonder why they dont just prevent them in the first place? Cynically Im wondering whether they do it on purpose so people place the bets hoping they have found a loop hole, when actually they havent... Anyway, keep us updated RB!!
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    Post by my tv broke Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:17 am

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    I would have thought they would be smart enough too, but in all the bookies I have ever know, the algorithms prevent you from these types of bets. It comes back with something like "related outcomes" or something. SO Im a bit intrigued as to how this will play out if they actually let that bet go through and the projected win amount actually equates to the multiple of the individual bets. If they let you place the bet, and they have tallied the return, then it would have to be in their fine print that the bet gets void.

    And if their algorithm is smart enough to pick up on these things after the fact, you have to wonder why they dont just prevent them in the first place? Cynically Im wondering whether they do it on purpose so people place the bets hoping they have found a loop hole, when actually they havent... Anyway, keep us updated RB!!

    They let the bet go through, that is the whole point of the "same game multi" section on sportsbet/etc. It exists to collect money from punters.

    Long gone are the days of gaming the system, their platforms are too mature for that nowadays

    You wont get better odds than just placing a single first try scorer bet, i can gaurentee that
    Mr Snrub
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    Post by Mr Snrub Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:21 am

    robelgordo wrote:
    On Watson, 50/50 he starts in the halves today?


    Coach said Phoenix Crossland would come in I think.
    Jele
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    Post by Jele Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:22 am

    if someone wants to tell me the first try scorer in the Roosters-Cowboys game, happy to test it out.
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:44 am

    Jele wrote:if someone wants to tell me the first try scorer in the Roosters-Cowboys game, happy to test it out.

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    Post by Guest Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:56 am

    Reckon there was something in the SJ false alarm before the broncos game.  Didn't goal kick, possibly managing a groin strain or something.
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    Post by No Worries Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:58 am

    Rooster Booster wrote:I don't know if this already a known thing, but I think I may of found a loophole when it comes to betting on the First Try Scorer market on SB.

    So if you pick a FTS, you can either multi it with either a ATS and or also add To Score A Try First Half to increase your odds many fold.

    I don't usually bet on FTS as I think it's a mugs game but if you're going to put on a FTS bet you might as well go all the way as your odds increase with out any consequence as far as I can see.

    I already put this bet on for tomorrow so am I missing something ?

    I'm going to go against the grain and tell you they will pay out.

    For you old school punters it's not a parlay. When you SGM the increased odds are subjective to what you have already bet on. So yes it increases your first try scorer odds by dropping a 3 leg multi but minimal in comparison to 3 separate bets. Also it's a hail Mary so no chance of paying out a bonus bet.
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    Post by mattnz Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:59 am

    I think that the most you can game the betting system is identifying likely events which are consistent with other bets. For example Souths get a huge win and AJ gets 2 tries. Odds are high that if one event happened the other likely did as well, but will be treated as independent events in their betting model
    Dttragic2016
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    Post by Dttragic2016 Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:00 am

    Rooster Booster wrote:I don't know if this already a known thing, but I think I may of found a loophole when it comes to betting on the First Try Scorer market on SB.

    So if you pick a FTS, you can either multi it with either a ATS and or also add To Score A Try First Half to increase your odds many fold.

    I don't usually bet on FTS as I think it's a mugs game but if you're going to put on a FTS bet you might as well go all the way as your odds increase with out any consequence as far as I can see.

    I already put this bet on for tomorrow so am I missing something ?

    This is gold mate will try it out. Have seen it a couple of times but as my main bets are tryscorer related, boosted odds would be awesome. Cheers.

    Edit: tried it on sb and the odds aren't boosted lol. Which site did you try this on and has it worked a few times?
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:05 am

    mattnz wrote:I think that the most you can game the betting system is identifying likely events which are consistent with other bets. For example Souths get a huge win and AJ gets 2 tries. Odds are high that if one event happened the other likely did as well, but will be treated as independent events in their betting model

    They arent treated as independent. Their algos are aware of the fact that if souths win big then AJ scoring two tries is more likely and you will get lower odds.
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    Post by Jele Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:10 am

    Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

    Radley 👍

    checked the odds for Radley FTS - $26.

    checked the odds for Radley ATS - $4.

    checked the odds for a same game multi Radley FTS and ATS - $25.25.

    scratch
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:13 am

    Khany wrote:Reckon there was something in the SJ false alarm before the broncos game.  Didn't goal kick, possibly managing a groin strain or something.

    Imagine if that happened this week......

    Just realised I should have started Bird and put Burton on the bench for cover if SJ for some reason was out. I'll start Ted and move Hynes to 19 just incase I think.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:46 am

    The key part of this you’re all missing is that betting agencies are absolute scumbags and even if you gamed the system somehow and found some minor edge over a period of time they’d just block your bets and/or your account.
    Jumping Marlin
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:54 am

    Top 100 ranked teams averaged  ~4.5 red dots pre trades.  Plenty playing short or eating into last few trades.
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    Post by wolfking Sat Jul 17, 2021 11:01 am

    Jumping Marlin wrote:Top 100 ranked teams averaged  ~4.5 red dots pre trades.  Plenty playing short or eating into last few trades.  

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    Post by ytsb Sat Jul 17, 2021 11:03 am

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 76 - Register for the Eliminator - Page 30 Sports10

    Once upon a time in 2018 you could watch keenly for late changes after TLT (i.e. training news, 24 hour team lists, 1 hour team lists) where a bench player would move to the starting side due to injury, resting, or otherwise. You would place a bet on the bench player (who you know was named as starting) to score 3 or more tries at 300+/1 odds, wait for the prices to adjust (for wingers 3 or more tries were around 45, for centres around 63, for fullbacks around 81) and then cash out for absolutely no risk. You'd pick the 3 tries or more market because you want the greatest reduction in price possible, to result in the greatest increase in cash out value possible (i.e. 300-60 reduction is a 5x reduction and you'd get around 3.5x higher cashout than your stake, if you just did them to score a try it'd be like $6-2 which is only 3x reduction so less money back if you cashed out).

    This was a literally no risk strategy, as the bookies HAD to adjust the market otherwise they'd be exposing themselves to too much risk. Prices typically remained for 15-30 minutes before adjusting so you had a bit of time to get on.

    So for example, let's say Pappy was named to start this week and Hynes was on the bench. He would be paying something like 300/1 to score a try (unsure of the odds these days, using old numbers from memory). You refresh nrl.com like a madman for the 24h team update and see Hynes is starting at 1. You place as much as you can on Hynes to score 3 or more tries, wait 30 minutes and cash out when the price adjusts to the true value of $81. Viola, the cash out value is around 3.5x what you put in.

    I was a young whippersnapper at the time so couldn't afford to absolutely load up. I was petrified it wouldn't work and as soon as I dropped all my money in they'd fix it somehow and I wouldn't be able to cash out. I ended up doing it four times or so until they fixed it and made approx. $3500 risk free. Sportsbet didn't ban my account for some reason, only promo banned me and restricted my stakes to around $2 on NRL. I also cannot cashout on their platform. It was done by a higher-up because not even the traders can tell me why on earth i'm banned which is pretty funny.
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    Post by Honey Badger Sat Jul 17, 2021 11:23 am

    Weiland wrote:Like a few others, not the best start of the round for me. I was close to trading in Mahoney but ultimately passed which kind of sucks but thats Fantasy. Just thankful I checked in before the Manly match and saw DCE so I could reverse trading him in. If Ponga is out then I will be reversing my other trade and playing 16 I guess. Just thankful Origin is over now.

    I was also close to trading in Mahoney but decided to wait to see how he goes after injury. Nrl physio mentioned middle players might struggle coming back from that sort of shoulder injury. Hopefully tohu can come back just as good
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sat Jul 17, 2021 11:28 am

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    I would have thought they would be smart enough too, but in all the bookies I have ever know, the algorithms prevent you from these types of bets. It comes back with something like "related outcomes" or something. SO Im a bit intrigued as to how this will play out if they actually let that bet go through and the projected win amount actually equates to the multiple of the individual bets. If they let you place the bet, and they have tallied the return, then it would have to be in their fine print that the bet gets void.

    And if their algorithm is smart enough to pick up on these things after the fact, you have to wonder why they dont just prevent them in the first place? Cynically Im wondering whether they do it on purpose so people place the bets hoping they have found a loop hole, when actually they havent... Anyway, keep us updated RB!!

    my tv broke wrote:

    They let the bet go through, that is the whole point of the "same game multi" section on sportsbet/etc. It exists to collect money from punters.

    Long gone are the days of gaming the system, their platforms are too mature for that nowadays

    You wont get better odds than just placing a single first try scorer bet, i can gaurentee that


    Tried it just out of curiosity. Daniel Tupou FTS with Sportsbet $8. Daniel Tupou same game multi FTS + ATS $7.50
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Sat Jul 17, 2021 11:30 am

    Wacko reporting James Roberts out for Talau. Assume there is a real source

      Current date/time is Sat Nov 23, 2024 4:33 pm