NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone

wolfking wrote:

Wait what mate?  You don't do you?

rectangle wrote:

Didn’t think Wookiee’s could contract COVID.

Nah I just found out about the Health Official telling everyone to stop engaging in conversations with people to reduce transmission...
what a world we live in

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Team before trades this week. Wondering if I can hold off a week on trades?
7 trades and 500k left.

Mahoney
Haas, Lodge, Radley
Fifita, Wilton
SJ, ARey
Burton, Olam
Hynes, Teddy, Walsh

Watson, Schuster, Brailey, Latrell
Pappy, Verrills, Moses, Fog

Have a bit of flexibility this week to deal with the Hynes/Pappy situation. Will steer away from Turbo and hope my guys can keep it respectable over the last 7 games.

Thoughts on some options to improve? Or just save my trades for some carnage.

hey mate, i'll give it a shot.  i feel like your team is solid, but has a few tier two guys in positions where the top teams have tier one guys now.  Lodge, Radley and Schuster looked good last week, but would you back them to outscore Tolo or IPap or Crichton in the run home?  Same with SJ, ARey, Moses and Fog - feels like you'd want a Cleary or DCE or Hughes.  Someone like Ramien would be a clear upgrade on Olam and Burton for that matter now he is back at centre. Assuming Moses, Pappy and Fog slip back into your top 17, who else is disposable?  You'd play Schuster over Wilton at edge for sure.  Which of Watson, Brailey, Latrell, SJ, ARey and Wilton are likely to round out your bench?  The rest are potentially available to cash out and help upgrade other positions if you want to go that way.

Assume the $500k is bank to turn Hynes back into Cleary?  The problem we've all got is, what happens if he doesn't suit up next week.  Will you hold again, in the interests of making sure you can make the trade?  Honestly I'd be tempted to do at least one upgrade this week given you've got 7 trades left, and then be prepared to make two trades next week or whenever Cleary turns up.

I just noticed the other Feagai brother is back. He may be a good option as a cash-out and CTR cover for when Bird is out

Is it worth going Moses to Mahoney leaving me with 3 trades, or should I just hold Moses and hope he's back in 1-2 weeks rather than 4-5

wolfking wrote:

Yeah, I am thinking basement price junk scorers that will lineup each week.  

Rabbits is right though, regardless if they are a red dot or a 10 point scorer, I looked back and my plan is not without risk.  Hence the Latrell alternate to gain extra coin as insurance.  Man I love watching To'o though.

I think I’d have To’o in front mate tbh with you. Although Burton doesn’t really pass much at centre from what I’ve seen so it may affect To’ scoring a bit but still To’o is in elite form.

Re Trell as you know he could get a 75-80 one week and a 25-30 the week after gonna be more up and down than To’o I think. Trell will more inject himself in and then out of games. As you know he doesn’t get through lots of shit work and passes to the wingers a lot. But yeah Trell does give you an extra 100k spare than To’o. I guess it depends on what you think Trell would avg in the run home.

You could also look at a Otukolo or Granville as a cash out that way they at least score 20 or so and aren’t totally a red dot. You’ve got 6-7 trades left I recall so yeah I think you could get Cleary back. I don’t think he’s back next week though (Cleary that is).

rectangle wrote:

Pretty solid team. Can only really see the halves as a week point. I’m sure you are keeping the bank for clearly, could be worth trading Brailey up to DCE. Should need you 20ish points a week.

Are you running the gauntlet in the ctr too? Might be worth a dual ctr / WFB cash out to kee some cash free for Cleary too.

Hey there equiangular quadrilateral.

Cash has been earmarked for Cleary indeed so hadn’t planned on doing a lot with it in fairness until he returned. If I bring DCE in I’ll have to forego Cleary unless I bring in a super cheap CTR. Bill
Smith is the only one that vaguely interested me at the moment but has questionable JS unless he’s jumped above JMoz

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Team before trades this week. Wondering if I can hold off a week on trades?
7 trades and 500k left.

Mahoney
Haas, Lodge, Radley
Fifita, Wilton
SJ, ARey
Burton, Olam
Hynes, Teddy, Walsh

Watson, Schuster, Brailey, Latrell
Pappy, Verrills, Moses, Fog

Have a bit of flexibility this week to deal with the Hynes/Pappy situation. Will steer away from Turbo and hope my guys can keep it respectable over the last 7 games.

Thoughts on some options to improve? Or just save my trades for some carnage.

You could probs hold trades mate unless you wanted to try and get Ipap in.

Rabbits21 wrote:
I think I’d have To’o in front mate tbh with you. Although Burton doesn’t really pass much at centre from what I’ve seen so it may affect To’ scoring a bit but still To’o is in elite form.

Re Trell as you know he could get a 75-80 one week and a 25-30 the week after gonna be more up and down than To’o I think. Trell will more inject himself in and then out of games. As you know he doesn’t get through lots of shit work and passes to the wingers a lot. But yeah Trell does give you an extra 100k spare than To’o. I guess it depends on what you think Trell would avg in the run home.

You could also look at a Otukolo or Granville as a cash out that way they at least score 20 or so and aren’t totally a red dot. You’ve got 6-7 trades left I recall so yeah I think you could get Cleary back. I don’t think he’s back next week though (Cleary that is).

I have Burton too.

Yeah, Latrell you never know what you are going to get. To'o' solid base with boost in tries.

I did look at Graville too shamelessly.

I agree Cleary may not be back next week too.

Bethany_B wrote:Is it worth going Moses to Mahoney leaving me with 3 trades, or should I just hold Moses and hope he's back in 1-2 weeks rather than 4-5

Sounds like Moses could be back as early as next week. If not the week after.

Cheers all, I will need to run some numbers to see what I can do with a cheapie cash out and what I cant do.

robelgordo wrote:I’ve backflipped to trading out Fog over Moses. Really think the right answer will be what I don’t do

Moses probably the better keep.  But he doesn't let me look this week.  I still am totally undecided.  Prefer watching the Fog though no matter how much of a rollercoaster he is.

wolfking wrote:

I'd probably just do the Tohu to Murray trade and hold.  Unless you think Moses won't be back to his best and you want a points boost but it's risky.

Thanks mate I think I’ll do that as well and play conservatively as you never know I might have someone else go down who is out a bit longer than Moses who I may have to trade next week for example.... and trades are at a premium with all the carnage that we’ve seen this year I’d hate to burn that second one and then next week go shit I wish I had that trade now. I can still field a good 17 anyway without Moses and just play both Brailey and Haumole on my interchange.

Re captaincy who are you on mate? I’m leaning towards Fifita. I saw Lockyer criticised him the other night and I can see Fifita wanting to prove a point this week and he has the perfect opportunity too against a Dragons defence that for mine doesn’t have a strong edge defence. I guess I couldn’t go too wrong captaining DCE or Turbo either.

By the way well down on captaining Haas last week.

Bethany_B wrote:Is it worth going Moses to Mahoney leaving me with 3 trades, or should I just hold Moses and hope he's back in 1-2 weeks rather than 4-5

Do you have the bank to wait a week on Mahoney? If so I’d wait if you can still field a good enough 14-17.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Do you have the bank to wait a week on Mahoney? If so I’d wait if you can still field a good enough 14-17.

It depends on the scores of Mahoney, Papy and Hynes, since the plan is to go Hynes to Papy next week.

Currently got 13k bank so need Mahoney to make less than 15k (with a BE of 41) to be able to afford it in 1 trade, obviously if Papy loses a lot of money and Hynes makes a bit more, I could do it regardless but not sure I want to risk it and also score worse this week (the difference between Mahoney and Harper's score)

My alternate option is to go Moses down to a bottom of the barrel cheapie (Ieremia would be the main one but depends on how much money Hynes makes) which would open the door to go Hynes to Cleary next week.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Thanks mate I think I’ll do that as well and play conservatively as you never know I might have someone else go down who is out a bit longer than Moses who I may have to trade next week for example.... and trades are at a premium with all the carnage that we’ve seen this year I’d hate to burn that second one and then next week go shit I wish I had that trade now. I can still field a good 17 anyway without Moses and just play both Brailey and Haumole on my interchange.

Re captaincy who are you on mate? I’m leaning towards Fifita. I saw Lockyer criticised him the other night and I can see Fifita wanting to prove a point this week and he has the perfect opportunity too against a Dragons defence that for mine doesn’t have a strong edge defence. I guess I couldn’t go too wrong captaining DCE or Turbo either.

By the way well down on captaining Haas last week.

Haas probably. Fifita a possibility.

I think your situation a safe play in one of those two is probably wise.

Ding Ding - Round 2 - Radley Vs TPJ Saturday August 7th

Chewie wrote:



Nah I just found out about the Health Official telling everyone to stop engaging in conversations with people to reduce transmission...
what a world we live in

Don't get me started, cob. I broke my no-news ban recently when it started directly affecting plans I had and my level of anger has never been higher. Don't be too concerned, though, mate. We're almost at the end of it. The way Australia is at the moment, I predict we should be able to speak to people again in 5-6 years. So close I can taste it.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Thanks mate I think I’ll do that as well and play conservatively as you never know I might have someone else go down who is out a bit longer than Moses who I may have to trade next week for example.... and trades are at a premium with all the carnage that we’ve seen this year I’d hate to burn that second one and then next week go shit I wish I had that trade now. I can still field a good 17 anyway without Moses and just play both Brailey and Haumole on my interchange.

Re captaincy who are you on mate? I’m leaning towards Fifita. I saw Lockyer criticised him the other night and I can see Fifita wanting to prove a point this week and he has the perfect opportunity too against a Dragons defence that for mine doesn’t have a strong edge defence. I guess I couldn’t go too wrong captaining DCE or Turbo either.

By the way well down on captaining Haas last week.

Further to our discussion earlier this week, I have a new-found preference for Murray over Lolo (mostly due to match-ups this week, first off) but the Rabbits bench does concern me. But yeah, I'd be leaning that single trade way too.

ynot wrote:

Hey mate, this is awesome - fantastic points.

Totally agree re: total points scored, I think that's probably more correlated than margin. Let me take a look tomorrow.

The best way to understand how good a team is in a season is to look at their point differential - that will closer be to a teams true performance than their wins / losses. This is why I was looking at margin game to game.

But from a fantasy perspective I'm guess losing 50 - 30 is very different to 20 - 0 in terms of fantasy point output for the losing team, so margin probably doesn't matter so much.

I think you are right about positional matchups too, much more interesting to figure out Winger A vs Winger B than just distribute a predicted amount of tries across the back line. It would be cool to look at the matchups on the different edges, because ultimately they don't effect each other much.

This has kind of exploded my brain a little bit, need a dataset that labels players as left and right edge and then we could look at some good findings. I believe I could figure this out from some data I have floating around.

Might be time to build some machine learning models and get predictive.

Great work as always ynot, if only we can you over to the betting thread to give us some tips on how we all can some dosh.  

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1706p20-the-betting-thread-part-2

Cheers Mate !

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Team before trades this week. Wondering if I can hold off a week on trades?
7 trades and 500k left.

Mahoney
Haas, Lodge, Radley
Fifita, Wilton
SJ, ARey
Burton, Olam
Hynes, Teddy, Walsh

Watson, Schuster, Brailey, Latrell
Pappy, Verrills, Moses, Fog

Have a bit of flexibility this week to deal with the Hynes/Pappy situation. Will steer away from Turbo and hope my guys can keep it respectable over the last 7 games.

Thoughts on some options to improve? Or just save my trades for some carnage.

Wondering if this was Copied an Pasted from another site due to the smaller font size ?

Just kidding mate  

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Am I asking my questions into a vaccuum? It’s fine I’ll just make my trades and soldier on

Thinking the thread is slowing down due to people having less trades.