NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone

WT2K wrote:

Only if you fold it

No Worries wrote:

This is one of those occasions when you know you shouldn't google it ................................

Yumbo:

wolfking wrote:Doueihi has an average of 59.7 out of playing 9 games at 5/8 this year.  Not bad.  Only 3 tries too during those 9 games.

Erin Moleman wrote:

I’d say Mahoney and doueihi are the best value at the moment for the potential

SoylentGreen wrote:

Yumbo:

Moanaman wrote:HTF gone for 6 weeks. Appendicitis....i think thats how its spelt

wolfking wrote:Doueihi has an average of 59.7 out of playing 9 games at 5/8 this year.  Not bad.  Only 3 tries too during those 9 games.

wolfking wrote:Mulvy's advice about getting Cleary back had me thinking of how I can do it.  I was contempt to let him go but I probably can make it happen.  If I wanted to do Moses/Fog to To'o this week it could still work.  6 trades so;

Moses/Fog - To'o - nets me 44K left.

Next trade would be Burton to 228K.  I have figured Burtons price at 550K.  Shouldn't drop that much this week but his centres scores aren't that great.  After that trade plus 44K I would have 366K.

Next trade I'm looking at possibly would be Verrills to a 228K.  This would mean Verrills raising 10K, which should be fine.

Then Cleary would come in for Hynes but in round 21.  This would mean Hynes maintaining his price though, which is risky.  Although, hopefully Cleary drops a little, but a lot needs to go my way.  Doing all this means I can keep Fog as 17th man and Peach and Laurie as 18th and 19th man.  Would leave 2 trades and hopefully this team;

Brailey
Haas Tolo IPap
Fifita Crichton
SJ Cleary
Bird Manu
To'o Ted Walsh

AFB CHN Watson Fog

Peach Laurie 228K 228K

If it doesn't work, I'd keep Verrills and trade Laurie to cheapie depending on how much I need.  Might get me a bit better depth if the player I trade plays every week.  I've done a few other options, but this looks the best.  other option is Mitchell over To'o for the extra 100K to play with if prices don't fall my way.  Running with 2 basement guys though is risky AF.  Keeping Fog or Moses though is interchangeable with Moses maybe back next week.

other option would be getting a different 17th man.  Basically trading Fog/Moses instead of Burton but then using the fourth trade of my plan to turn Burton into a Radley or someone more reliable.

Camo123 wrote:

The not captaining trade in is more to protect from late out and allow reverse of trade rather than superstition that they score shit in their first week

ynot wrote:Only issue for Doueihi was his lack of kick metres last week. Averaged close to 300 earlier in the year.

If that trend continues, when he's up against good teams and the Tigers aren't scoring tries, he's probably looking at 35 points.

filthridden wrote:

Keep on eye on kick metres. I bought Doueihi in thinking his kick metres would be consistent with previous 5/8th starts. Barely kicked on the weekend.
Buyer beware.

ynot wrote:I've been digging into the whole question of "do matchups matter?". I think it's of interest with the season coming to a close which means strength of remaining schedule is becoming more variant, especially with the competition gap. It might also be helpful for H2H players looking to target specific weeks.

Here are some charts looking at the 2021 season for players playing over 40 minutes, to filter out injuries and small role bench players.

This looks at the correlation between game margin and total fantasy points scored. Margin being used as a proxy for the difference in how good a team is in a matchup.



The R = 0.25 refers to the correlation between the two variables, 0 being no relationship, 1 being a positive relationship.

This means there is a positive but weak relationship, between individual fantasy points and team margin. i.e. The more points a teams wins by the more fantasy points an individual in that team will score.

I think this is fairly obvious, because the events that occur when scoring game points also create fantasy points.

Lets see what happens when we break that down by position:



I think this also makes sense, backs are the most effected by game results (matchups), particularly fullbacks and halfbacks both having moderate positive correlations. Centres to a slightly less extent and Five Eighths even less.

Forwards on the other hand it doesn't matter so much, I'm guessing because their fantasy points are generated by tackles and run metres, which remain relatively consistent despite opposition.

What doesn't remain consistent between players is minutes played, so lets look at the previous chart on a points per minute basis:



A slight increased in correlation but nothing major.

To summarise: trade in backs, particularly halves and fullbacks, who have good matchups and don't trade in those that have tough matchups. Don't worry too much about the matchups for forwards!

Pretty obvious, but I'll hopefully dig into this a little deeper though out the week and come up with some recommendations.

wolfking wrote:

Ponga always finds a way to shit himself on the run home.

TheWeapon wrote:

I like this. The only reasons I went Gutho over To'o last round was that Moses was out, and that the strapping on To'o's knee made me nervous given that I don't have many trades left.... Another option would be to get rid of SJ.... I have him and he looks terrible....

toast wrote:

Was curious about this so had a look.

Scores from last 3 games played:
2018:
r21 - 53
r22 - 44
r23 - 38

2019:
r23 - 32
r24 - 38
r25 - 6

2020:
r17 - 108
r19 - 41
r20 - 21

All 80min games. The 108 looks like an exception with the next highest being 53 then 44. No idea why his scores fall off but there is evidence of it. Has me slightly wary of bringing him in though he remains a target for now.

wolfking wrote:

I didn't look at stats mate, I just know 2 years in a row he fucked me good.  Would have been the last two years looking at those scores.  The team were probably out of finals contention the last two weeks perhaps so maybe that had something to do with it.