NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 84 - I got 99 problems, and a lack of trades is one of them

bigbruno wrote:With Cleary, let’s presume he starts this week. When the panthers are 25 up with 20 to go.. will he be getting an early shower?

Probably, but I'd assume he'd have scored 60+ by that point anyway.

mrbrownstone wrote:Is Lolo to Grant too much of a luxury as my last trade?

Will be running this team before doing anything.

Macca
Haas (v) iPap AFB
DiFi Matto
Cleary (c) Schuster
Avo Burton
Teddy Ponga Walsh

Murray Lucy Doueihi Watson

Lolo Verrills Schoupp Kobe

If Cleary doesn't play, can at least use Lolo to loop Verrills and Schoupp.

This article is what Matt was referencing last night regarding Lolo. Doesn't give us any more clarity however;

https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/08/10/taumalolos-hand-woes-trigger-probe-into-rash-of-bad-breaks/

I may trade him myself if Cleary is out and Hynes is trash but feels uneasy using the last trade if you can field 17.

Current team
Brailey
Haas, AFB, Curran
Papalii, fifita
Cleary, Douhei
Bird, Avo
Walsh, Turbo, Ponga

Teddy, DCE, Hodgson, Gamble

Verills, Papi, Feagai and lolo

if you could have any other player who would you guys bring in for lolo (still have 3 trades) and can afford anyone

mintotheimmortal wrote:Current team
Brailey
Haas, AFB, Curran
Papalii, fifita
Cleary, Douhei
Bird, Avo
Walsh, Turbo, Ponga

Teddy, DCE, Hodgson, Gamble

Verills, Papi, Feagai and lolo

if you could have any other player who would you guys bring in for lolo (still have 3 trades) and can afford anyone

Probably Murray.

wolfking wrote:

Probably Murray.

definitely on the short list, was initially put off by the try scoring run he's had. Jackson and Sexton were others I've considered so far and even potentially JDB

mintotheimmortal wrote:Current team
Brailey
Haas, AFB, Curran
Papalii, fifita
Cleary, Douhei
Bird, Avo
Walsh, Turbo, Ponga

Teddy, DCE, Hodgson, Gamble

Verills, Papi, Feagai and lolo

if you could have any other player who would you guys bring in for lolo (still have 3 trades) and can afford anyone

Pretty much all the must haves I can think of.. resorted to looking up averages. Hughes and Munster, not hurting for halves and maybe rests are a concern and Hughes niggle.

Cook a must have in seasons past. Still up there this season and pretty safe you'd assume.

I've never been disappointed owning Murray, would prefer him over Frizell. Has been dicked around moving to edge and ctr in the past though.

Cook, Murray or Hughes. Cook or Murray. Maybe Cook. I like Murray though.

*EDIT. Just sunk in that your forward stocks are low, definitely Murray over Cook in that case, or Jackson etc.

I was interested in how much carnage the recent injuries/suspensions had caused.

These two charts look at the maximum amount of players a team could have with "playing" status, if they use their maximum amount of trades.

e.g. If a team is down to 16 players "playing" and has 0 trades, this would return 16. If they have 4 trades and 15 players "playing", this would show 17.

It actually doesn't seem too bad - almost  all teams have 17, 8% have less than that.

Rank 1 is right on the edge, Rank 2 has a bit of buffer:



Histogram:

WT Winfield wrote:

Pretty much all the must haves I can think of.. resorted to looking up averages. Hughes and Munster, not hurting for halves and maybe rests are a concern and Hughes niggle.

Cook a must have in seasons past. Still up there this season and pretty safe you'd assume.

I've never been disappointed owning Murray, would prefer him over Frizell. Has been dicked around moving to edge and ctr in the past though.

Cook, Murray or Hughes. Cook or Murray. Maybe Cook. I like Murray though.

*EDIT. Just sunk in that your forward stocks are low, definitely Murray over Cook in that case, or Jackson etc.

hmm very good point will have a look at some forwards those 2 definitely look good Matterson JDB maybe leilua to go on a run

WT Winfield wrote:

I definitely could be wrong that you made that trade. It was a discussion though since Crichton had been the non-Cleary owners captain, but got suspended for Rd 2. Holding the trade didn't look bad when Cleary was suspended for Rd 3 and Fifita proved an adequate 2nd option. Not having Cleary from Rd 4 on was a burial though..

Think ur mixing two posters up u lil' bitch !

Was that to much ?

No Worries wrote:

Shout out to everyone who didn't start with Cleary and who's season is like the olympics and been postpooned for a year. @ynot , how about a graph of highest placed who started without Cleary with an axis of when they brought him in

So of the top 1000, 79% of them started with Cleary.

Highest ranking player who didn't start with Cleary is Rank #2, who picked him up in Round 4.

For the 212 who didn't pick him up Round 1, this is the breakdown of when they did:

Round 2: 17%
Round 3: 1 team (HIA)
Round 4: 33%
Round 5: 46%
Round 6: 12%
Round 7: 10%
Round 8: 4%
Round 10: 1 team

Here's your chart (only for Top 1000 though):

ynot wrote:

So of the top 1000, 79% of them started with Cleary.

Highest ranking player who didn't start with Cleary is Rank #2, who picked him up in Round 4.

For the 212 who didn't pick him up Round 1, this is the breakdown of when they did:

Round 2: 17%
Round 3: 1 team (HIA)
Round 4: 33%
Round 5: 46%
Round 6: 12%
Round 7: 10%
Round 8: 4%
Round 10: 1 team

Here's your chart (only for Top 1000 though):

You are a genius, great data. Thankyou.

ynot wrote:I was interested in how much carnage the recent injuries/suspensions had caused.

These two charts look at the maximum amount of players a team could have with "playing" status, if they use their maximum amount of trades.

e.g. If a team is down to 16 players "playing" and has 0 trades, this would return 16. If they have 4 trades and 15 players "playing", this would show 17.

It actually doesn't seem too bad - almost  all teams have 17, 8% have less than that.

Rank 1 is right on the edge, Rank 2 has a bit of buffer:



Histogram:

Really interesting. It seems like most teams will be able to field a 17, but I think this is where the quality of your team’s depth gets really tested. Teams who have over-invested in their top 17 at the expense of decent depth options might really feel it this week. I wonder how many are being forced to play cheap cash out players who they never really intended on making up part of their 17. Even guys like CHN and Hynes who are heavily owned will likely feature in that 17, but are unlikely to score high enough for them to feel like players you’d want at this time of the year.

Revraiser wrote:

Think ur mixing two posters up u lil' bitch !

Was that to much ?

I dunno who I could've mixed you up with, so I had to see for myself

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1575p240-nrl-fantasy-2021-part-16-to-milf-or-not-to-milf-that-is-the-question

and this post in particular

Revraiser wrote:No just kidding, appreciate the feedback mate. But I'm sold, it's done and the key has been swallowed. Nothing to do with chasing 96 as everyone says, it's chasing Cleary and possibly getting Crichton down the track as opposed to Cleary later, if at all. Gets me a captain Cleary score this week as opposed to a spud score.
Plus I have the luxury or convenience of not having any of Gosi, Croker, Host or anyone that has to go etc.

So I dunno. I think trading Crichton after the first round for a 1 week suspension was a wasted trade though, but worked out quite well if it was for Cleary. I just had it in my mind since then that you were one of those that pulled the trigger.

When the Bunnies absolutely rout the Titans hopefully Sexton is found out. Easy to look good vs Dogs and Cowboys eh

So I go and check my trade history and yes I indeed did do that trade! You were right @Winfield. I can't believe i do not recall starting out like that. I did Crichton and Barnett (another early mistake) out for Cleary and Townsend in.

Your memory is phenomenal, effing scary !

Lemmy KGB wrote:When the Bunnies absolutely rout the Titans hopefully Sexton is found out. Easy to look good vs Dogs and Cowboys eh

Any teams that allow Ash Taylor to look good can’t be taken seriously.

Will be interesting

Lemmy KGB wrote:When the Bunnies absolutely rout the Titans hopefully Sexton is found out. Easy to look good vs Dogs and Cowboys eh

I just had a look at your team & it's outstanding bro.

Revraiser wrote:So I go and check my trade history and yes I indeed did do that trade! You were right @Winfield. I can't believe i do not recall starting out like that. I did Crichton and Barnett (another early mistake) out for Cleary and Townsend in.

Your memory is phenomenal, effing scary !

Nah mate, you were just one of the few teams I was somewhat following and cheering for since I didn't have my own I'm still a lil bitch as you said for effectively calling you out on it

WT Winfield wrote:

I dunno who I could've mixed you up with, so I had to see for myself    

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t1575p240-nrl-fantasy-2021-part-16-to-milf-or-not-to-milf-that-is-the-question

and this post in particular



So I dunno. I think trading Crichton after the first round for a 1 week suspension was a wasted trade though, but worked out quite well if it was for Cleary. I just had it in my mind since then that you were one of those that pulled the trigger.

Yes u were spot on. Funny how reading those posts from March actually brings it all back. Precise thoughts which I had archived but were mere at hand post it notes for others......

WT Winfield wrote:

Nah mate, you were just one of the few teams I was somewhat following and cheering for since I didn't have my own I'm still a lil bitch as you said for effectively calling you out on it

Nah it's ok, this is quite a surreal moment actually, I may be in the midst of losing my marbles.

But yeah I recall the reasoning of it being an acceptable trade as it meant Cleary in