NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

As has been mentioned, he is likely to get an uptick in minutes and also spend some time in the middle during the game. If you take all his games 50 minutes and above last year he averaged just a tick under 54, which is precisely what makes him 10 points undervalued.

Snatchpato wrote:I really don't think Burton is going to do as well as people are projecting. His stats are insane, but he was in an insane team. Even in an improved dogs side I'm not sure he projects as well as people are hoping.

With that said, he's 35% owned and I'm not sure I wanna risk not getting him.

Lchy wrote:

Yeah for me his main appeal is a) he's almost guaranteed to be a top 3 CTR at years end and is definitely undervalued, just not massively and b) around half the comp will start with him so in theory it's the safer choice in case he kills it.

Like you say though, his massive starting halves average is gonna get tanked by KM nerfs, unsustainable try scoring rate (7 in 9 if I'm not mistaken). On the other hand though, he's such a talented player that he makes his own opportunities. When Panthers got tanked by Origin in 2021 he got 55 (1 try) and 77 (2) in losing sides. It's not like the dogs are a black hole of talent either - they've got some very good attacking players behind a decent forward pack. Like just imagine him darting into open space off the back of a TPJ offload, points galore. Halfway through writing this comment I've realised I may have talked myself into him.

I think if you're content to pay big money early to get a keeper CTR that will average low to mid 50s then he's a good buy. You could also comfortably get him mid/late season and use the money elsewhere. I think he's a similar conundrum to Tino last year (who I avoided) except I think this time having a kicking halve's base stats means at very worst he won't regress from the 48 he's priced at. Just my take anyway.

Chewie wrote:
Save a trade and have a set and forget CTR

Rabbits21 wrote:BARTY PARTY BABY! Woooohhhoooooooo

Chewie wrote:



He almost makes 40 points in base stats, add a few attacking stats and he hits his BE.
Save a trade and have a set and forget CTR

FalconSloth wrote:
We have heard this before and it never seems to end well

Jasonb-pt wrote:Hey gents, long time lurker, first time poster. My first contribution: sounds like James Segeyaro has officially signed a contract with a yet to be named team. Assuming its an NRL side. Im thinking its either the knights, bulldogs or the dolphins.

Snatchpato wrote:
40 points in base stats, from his Panthers side. I know changing side shouldn't affect base, but I'm certain if Cleary played for the Broncos last year he would've averaged at least 10 points less.

Playing for the dogs (bless em) can't be understated.

*In my very inexperienced opinion*

Jasonb-pt wrote:Hey gents, long time lurker, first time poster. My first contribution: sounds like James Segeyaro has officially signed a contract with a yet to be named team. Assuming its an NRL side. Im thinking its either the knights, bulldogs or the dolphins.

rhinoceroo wrote:Can't remember what the consensus was last year as to whether it was better to go guns and cows or have only a couple of guns and a plethora of low to midranges who could elevate. I mean the consensus after the season, not the consensus before, because that didn't turn out too well.

Been fiddling around and figured a gun/cow team with Cook, TPJ, Angus, Cleary, Burton and Papi, but relies on four base price cows turning up...

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I don't think Burton will score as well as most hope. Like you said he is in a Dogs team that despite adding a bunch of new players, didn't add anyone with leadership abilities. Vaughan, TPJ, Naden all have interesting pasts that could derail the dressing room. Lot of talent on paper but going to need Jackson and Thompson to really stand up as leaders.

With that said Burton will almost certainly be in my round 1 team. Even if he regresses and "only" manages to average 45 points he will probably be the highest scoring centre while having a higher floor than other options. Burton won't be dishing up any single figure scores like you can get from the "gun" centres

mattnz wrote:

I didn't realise Vaughan had switched clubs. With McGuire out suspended, there are a lot of minutes up for grabs at the Dragons in the middle.

mattnz wrote:

Last year was an unusual one. Very few cows that kicked on, we had guns becoming super-guns.

The very best mid-rangers were really hard to pick early, guys like iPap.

Some great early picks that got injured, Papy, Collins and Keary and others that had a really bad injury history like Turbo, so was a massive risk picking him, who not only stayed on the field but had the best season of any WFB ever.

I think generally though, guns and cows is easier to pull off, as selecting the right players for it is much easier than guessing the right mid-rangers who are going to be great value. The  optimal strategy though, should be getting the right mid-rangers that will become guns and starting with them.

Milchcow wrote:

There were many cows that kicked on last year

Top 20 money makers as below - almost all of them available at $300k or under.
There were some guns that also made money, including guys like Cleary. But to say few cows kicked on is just wrong.

   

Name	Min	Max	Diff
Tom Trbojevic	477000	1098000	621000
Josh Curran	246000	683000	437000
Jake Averillo	291000	714000	423000
Nicho Hynes	327000	744000	417000
Reuben Garrick	367000	780000	413000
Corey Harawira-Naera	310000	721000	411000
Braydon Trindall	228000	630000	402000
Reece Walsh	228000	629000	401000
Jayden Brailey	410000	796000	386000
Stefano Utoikamanu	246000	626000	380000
Tyson Gamble	246000	615000	369000
Josh Schuster	274000	613000	339000
Haumole Olakau'atu	292000	629000	337000
Isaiah Papali'i	529000	855000	326000
Sam Walker	228000	551000	323000
Connor Watson	323000	643000	320000