NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

I am going to be keeping a close eye on the make up of the Panthers bench, if some of the predicted teams that I am seeing are close to correct, Leniu could be ready for his breakout season.

I am expecting Sorenson to have the role that Martin did last season, mostly on the edge, Kenny backing up Api and looking towards him potentially starting next season.

Without Tyrone May or Capewell there, they need a way to cover the backs from the bench as well. Could see someone like Taylan May on the bench.

Far less versatility for Cleary to work with will likely create some opportunities and a great thing for fantasy is that he tends to pick and stick, unlike other clubs that are changing their side every week.

What do you think the make up of the Panthers bench is likely to be?

On Burton I was listening to a podcast & the coach apparently said that Burton will be a ball runner & the 9 & 7 will run the team...so there will be lower km's for Burton. I'm undecided on him atm.

So if Segeyaro is going to the Cowboys it brings Kenny into the equation. I noticed in 2021 when he started at hooker in 11 games he played 80 mins in 9 games averaging 46 pts. He's priced at 38 pts so there is some value there but 478k is a tricky price. However a 80 min hooker at 478k has to be considered.

White Lightning wrote:On Burton I was listening to a podcast & the coach apparently said that Burton will be a ball runner & the 9 & 7 will run the team...so there will be lower km's for Burton. I'm undecided on him atm.

Ive been switching between Burton and Aiken. Ive currently switched back to Aiken as it helps with my 2nd row depth. Got plenty of options at half. What will annoy me about Aiken is if an outside back gets injured early and he moves out to the ctrs.
I'll definitely be picking up Burton at some stage. I dont think his price will blow out too much

White Lightning wrote:So if Segeyaro is going to the Cowboys it brings Kenny into the equation. I noticed in 2021 when he started at hooker in 11 games he played 80 mins in 9 games averaging 46 pts. He's priced at 38 pts so there is some value there but 478k is a tricky price. However a 80 min hooker at 478k has to be considered.

I am confused by this post. Whats segeyaro got to do with Kenny and why is kenny relevant in the first place?

Honey Badger wrote:

Ive been switching between Burton and Aiken. Ive currently switched back to Aiken as it helps with my 2nd row depth. Got plenty of options at half. What will annoy me about Aiken is if an outside back gets injured early and he moves out to the ctrs.
I'll definitely be picking up Burton at some stage. I dont think his price will blow out too much

imo J. Bird who apparently will be starting lock & is 58k cheaper could match Burton's scores if he is the running half. Bird is priced at 43 pts & could av 48-50 pts in the middle so there is some value there whereas Burton priced at 48 pts could actually drop in price initially.

my tv broke wrote:

I am confused by this post. Whats segeyaro got to do with Kenny and why is kenny relevant in the first place?

my bad just woke up & my old age dementia is probably kicking in for some reason when I saw Segeyaro I thought Koroisau lol.

ABORT ABORT ABORT MY COMMENT

Milchcow wrote:

There were many cows that kicked on last year

Top 20 money makers as below - almost all of them available at $300k or under.
There were some guns that also made money, including guys like Cleary. But to say few cows kicked on is just wrong.

   

Name	Min	Max	Diff
Tom Trbojevic	477000	1098000	621000
Josh Curran	246000	683000	437000
Jake Averillo	291000	714000	423000
Nicho Hynes	327000	744000	417000
Reuben Garrick	367000	780000	413000
Corey Harawira-Naera	310000	721000	411000
Braydon Trindall	228000	630000	402000
Reece Walsh	228000	629000	401000
Jayden Brailey	410000	796000	386000
Stefano Utoikamanu	246000	626000	380000
Tyson Gamble	246000	615000	369000
Josh Schuster	274000	613000	339000
Haumole Olakau'atu	292000	629000	337000
Isaiah Papali'i	529000	855000	326000
Sam Walker	228000	551000	323000
Connor Watson	323000	643000	320000

The only guys that started round 1 from the list were:

Jake Averillo - started the season with scores of 19, 20, 29, then missed round 4 with uncertainty over how long he would be out and many other centers out that same round. Many had to drop him to have 2 centers playing that round. A total disappointment to start the season and needed to be dropped on bad form.

Reuben Garrick - went under the radar all season, with no-one picking him up

Jayden Brailey - Started the season on fire, then had a high of 58 from round 11 onwards, reverting back to an expected average in the 40s for the 2nd half of the season.

Stefano Utoikamanu - Solid performer to start the season off the bench. When he got starts in rounds 6 and 7 he only got 30 and 38 minutes. By round 18 when he started getting big minutes as starting prop, he was already traded out by those who knew what they were doing.

Isaiah Papali'i - Was in no ones team to start the season. Started as a bench forward where there was significant competition for minutes and outperformed everyone's expectation.

Connor Watson - Was in every serious team.

So of the list you provided, which was the top money makers for the season, there was only 1 highly owned player that consistently performed throughout the season.

The rest were unexpected PODs or had a glimpse of form at the start or end of season. None were consistent performers like a Haas, Grant, Nikora etc in their breakout cow seasons.

Really different from most seasons. Case closed!

Hi guys and gals , just on the Burton thing I see both Bird and Aitkin mentioned as an alternative and I can see why but no love for Lomax am I missing something ????

Aardvark Ratnick wrote:Hi guys and gals , just on the Burton thing I see both Bird and Aitkin mentioned as an alternative and I can see why but no love for Lomax am I missing something ????

Centres that aren't centres are a luxury with their high floors compared to centres who are centres and Lomax is a centre who is a centre and comes at a high price but still has that extremely low floor just like all other centres who are centres scoring 13 in 80 minutes last season.

FalconSloth wrote:
Centres that aren't centres are a luxury with their high floors compared to centres who are centres and Lomax is a centre who is a centre and comes at a high price but still has that extremely low floor just like all other centres who are centres scoring 13 in 80 minutes last season.

Yeah I understand all that but thats assuming the others get the other gig or they are just even higher priced centres without goal kicking duties.

Milchcow wrote:
If 2021 was unusual because the biggest money makers didn't start R1, then I'd say every year was unusual.

Without gong to check the stats, I'd say most years the top money makers would be base price rookies who get their chance during the season due to injury/suspension/form.

It's why starting team is not a massive factor in determining overall success.
It's much more important to jump on the right trades early enough during the season.

I think most other years we have had plenty of cheapie options but it feels like this year it seems more like we are searching for options rather than deciding between them.

FalconSloth wrote:
I think most other years we have had plenty of cheapie options but it feels like this year it seems more like we are searching for options rather than deciding between them.

I know I'm going to rip everything up and start again on TLT but yeah, currently at base price I'm looking at Taas (*maybe* starts centre for Souths), Moale (total weapon on highlights running at children and *maybe* jags bench spot), Mam (hey, Kevvie mentioned him in an interview last week) and Hola (*maybe* knocks out 30s on Raiders bench).

Unless there are pre-season long-term injuries forcing debuts or the Dogs start with Cook or whatever it's slim pickings indeed. Certainly can't see a Daine Laurie from last year just yet. The important thing is not to get stuck with another Simonssen.

White Lightning wrote:On Burton I was listening to a podcast & the coach apparently said that Burton will be a ball runner & the 9 & 7 will run the team...so there will be lower km's for Burton. I'm undecided on him atm.

Just seeking clarification, but how does running the team necessarily mean taking all the kick metres. It could just mean they are deciding when Burton will kick long; which is where the metres are to be made

rhinoceroo wrote:

I know I'm going to rip everything up and start again on TLT but yeah, currently at base price I'm looking at Taas (*maybe* starts centre for Souths), Moale (total weapon on highlights running at children and *maybe* jags bench spot), Mam (hey, Kevvie mentioned him in an interview last week) and Hola (*maybe* knocks out 30s on Raiders bench).

Unless there are pre-season long-term injuries forcing debuts or the Dogs start with Cook or whatever it's slim pickings indeed. Certainly can't see a Daine Laurie from last year just yet. The important thing is not to get stuck with another Simonssen.

Moale looks like the next Lolo in his highlights.

mattnz wrote:

Moale looks like the next Lolo in his highlights.

He looks like Lolo and Haas combined, with the caveat that it might be juniors because he's twice the size of anyone else on the field.

rhinoceroo wrote:

I know I'm going to rip everything up and start again on TLT but yeah, currently at base price I'm looking at Taas (*maybe* starts centre for Souths), Moale (total weapon on highlights running at children and *maybe* jags bench spot), Mam (hey, Kevvie mentioned him in an interview last week) and Hola (*maybe* knocks out 30s on Raiders bench).

Unless there are pre-season long-term injuries forcing debuts or the Dogs start with Cook or whatever it's slim pickings indeed. Certainly can't see a Daine Laurie from last year just yet. The important thing is not to get stuck with another Simonssen.

As you mention Simonsson, while he was rubbish when he debuted, I could see him being a potential POD on the end of the Eels backline.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I don't think Burton will score as well as most hope. Like you said he is in a Dogs team that despite adding a bunch of new players, didn't add anyone with leadership abilities. Vaughan, TPJ, Naden all have interesting pasts that could derail the dressing room. Lot of talent on paper but going to need Jackson and Thompson to really stand up as leaders.

With that said Burton will almost certainly be in my round 1 team. Even if he regresses and "only" manages to average 45 points he will probably be the highest scoring centre while having a higher floor than other options. Burton won't be dishing up any single figure scores like you can get from the "gun" centres

The reverse logic could be used to make a case for picking COTRIC. He was rubbish last year but you would have to imagine he is at his floor price now. DPP and heading back to a much stronger team with more attacking stats on offer.

mattnz wrote:I am going to be keeping a close eye on the make up of the Panthers bench, if some of the predicted teams that I am seeing are close to correct, Leniu could be ready for his breakout season.

I am expecting Sorenson to have the role that Martin did last season, mostly on the edge, Kenny backing up Api and looking towards him potentially starting next season.

Without Tyrone May or Capewell there, they need a way to cover the backs from the bench as well. Could see someone like Taylan May on the bench.

Far less versatility for Cleary to work with will likely create some opportunities and a great thing for fantasy is that he tends to pick and stick, unlike other clubs that are changing their side every week.

What do you think the make up of the Panthers bench is likely to be?

I’m not saying Leniu is going to be a good pick, but he’s surely a better pick in 2022 than he was in 2021.

And if he’s not this year than I’ll be saying the same thing in 2023, because it feels like a player of his talent eventually has to make the leap from 20 min impact to significant 35-40 min role in the middle rotation.