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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Sun Jan 30, 2022 2:03 pm

    FalconSloth wrote:
    I think most other years we have had plenty of cheapie options but it feels like this year it seems more like we are searching for options rather than deciding between them.

    Every year there are few good cheap options especially before trials

    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Sun Jan 30, 2022 2:04 pm

    Taaffe wearing 14, Paulo 3, Mansour 5, Ilias 7 in the Ch9 Souths preseason shoot Twisted Evil

    https://www.nrl.com/news/2022/01/30/damien-cook-takes-you-into-the-rabbitohs-channel-nine-shoot/

    There's some decent evidence for our very own Dolphin conspirator
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Sun Jan 30, 2022 2:38 pm

    mattnz wrote:I am going to be keeping a close eye on the make up of the Panthers bench, if some of the predicted teams that I am seeing are close to correct, Leniu could be ready for his breakout season.

    I am expecting Sorenson to have the role that Martin did last season, mostly on the edge, Kenny backing up Api and looking towards him potentially starting next season.

    Without Tyrone May or Capewell there, they need a way to cover the backs from the bench as well. Could see someone like Taylan May on the bench.

    Far less versatility for Cleary to work with will likely create some opportunities and a great thing for fantasy is that he tends to pick and stick, unlike other clubs that are changing their side every week.

    What do you think the make up of the Panthers bench is likely to be?




    If they are carrying Kenny, May and Sorensen on the bench, there is indeed not much room for MIDs of the bench
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    Post by Guest Sun Jan 30, 2022 2:54 pm

    The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

    Just seeking clarification, but how does running the team necessarily mean taking all the kick metres. It could just mean they are deciding when Burton will kick long; which is where the metres are to be made

    Well if Burton isn't the controlling hlf/game mgr then the other hlf will dominate km's it's not saying Burton won't get any km's it just means they will be reduced quite a bit.
    The Pascoe Fiasco
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    Post by The Pascoe Fiasco Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:06 pm

    Aardvark Ratnick wrote:Hi guys and gals , just on the Burton thing I see both Bird and Aitkin mentioned as an alternative and I can see why but no love for Lomax am I missing something ????
    I’m with Sergis on this one!
    Jumping Marlin
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    Post by Jumping Marlin Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:28 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    I’m not saying Leniu is going to be a good pick, but he’s surely a better pick in 2022 than he was in 2021.

    And if he’s not this year than I’ll be saying the same thing in 2023, because it feels like a player of his talent eventually has to make the leap from 20 min impact to significant 35-40 min role in the middle rotation.

    From DT today:

    Reporter: You were a little concerned about being light on in the middle last year. Concerned now TPJ moved on?

    Ivan C: Blah blah concern re numbers not quality last year blah blah. “I feel we are OK in terms of numbers now…. Spencer Leniu is on a nice track now and we are hoping all the guys we have grow a little this year…”
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:32 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    Every year there are few good cheap options especially before trials


    Last year there were multiple "good" cheap options before trials

    After trials it became apparent most of them weren't actually good options.

    This year there look like very few base price players, but lots of potential options in the $3-400k range. I'm sure options will appear
    I'm also sure I'll forego trading some of them until its too late

    And just because I bothered to look it up, the top money makers from 2020
    Of the top 5, only Luai played round 1, and about half of the list were round 1 options.
    Some of these players the min price wasn't there starting price - and they lost a bit of money before making any.
    eg Tino had made a total of $1k after round 5 before going on a scoring spree that made all his cash.

    MinMaxDiff
    Harry Grant246000788000542000
    Jamal Fogarty228000750000522000
    Jarome Luai249000668000419000
    Tom Starling228000624000396000
    Siosifa Talakai246000634000388000
    Patrick Carrigan430000785000355000
    Jacob Saifiti246000599000353000
    Tino Faasuamaleaui300000644000344000
    Kurt Mann350000678000328000
    Eliesa Katoa228000546000318000
    Toby Rudolf228000546000318000
    Reuben Cotter219000537000318000
    Stephen Crichton264000565000301000
    Apisai Koroisau493000787000294000
    Dylan Brown503000781000278000
    Isaah Yeo544000817000273000
    Jack Murchie282000552000270000
    Bayley Sironen215000483000268000
    Jamayne Taunoa-Brown228000495000267000
    poisoncup
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    Post by poisoncup Sun Jan 30, 2022 5:08 pm

    Reading the thread title in the same voice of Mark Gasnier wasted in the back of a cab circa 2004.
    Lchy
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    Post by Lchy Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:57 pm

    I really hope Leniu doesn't get an increased role, after carrying the fuckin lemon in my emergencies for about 20 rounds last year for him to get low 20s whenever he was needed as a scoring player I physically couldn't bare to pick him again. Sure sign he'll average 50 probably
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    Post by mattnz Sun Jan 30, 2022 10:02 pm

    Lchy wrote:I really hope Leniu doesn't get an increased role, after carrying the fuckin lemon in my emergencies for about 20 rounds last year for him to get low 20s whenever he was needed as a scoring player I physically couldn't bare to pick him again. Sure sign he'll average 50 probably

    Yep, I didnt have him last season and happy to pick him up if he looks like getting the minutes, after not being burned last year.
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    Post by mattnz Sun Jan 30, 2022 10:24 pm

    NRL Physio saying he expects Tohu back around rounds 4-6, but wouldn't be able to pick up an 80 minute role.

    Douehi has had a 2nd ACL, and 30% of them have a 3rd ACL injury. Should rehab longer to reduce this risk, instead of coming back early.

    Doesn't expect Croker to come back strongly after stem cell surgery.

    Says Suaalii and Billy Smith coming back from Lisfranc injury are likely to be 10% down on performance.

    RFM coming back from Nervicular has really bad blood supply. 20% possibility that he never comes back to NRL. Wouldn't touch him early on, as could easily be out if any recurrence.

    Recurrence rate for Cleary, Murray and Mahoney shoulder reconstruction is only 2%. No concerns, especially for Cleary in the halves.

    George Burgess he wouldnt touch at all, is the first person to try to come back to rugby league after that hip injury.

    https://podtail.com/en/podcast/the-nrl-fantasy-amateurs/2022-injury-breakdown-with-the-nrl-physio/
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    Post by mattnz Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:53 pm

    With Gildart locked in as one center for Tigers, they only have 2 other fit options that appear to play center, Tupou and Kei, both are $220k.
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    Post by mattnz Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:01 am

    Tennis spoiler alert:


    Last edited by mattnz on Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:36 am; edited 7 times in total
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:06 am

    mattnz wrote:With Gildart locked in as one center for Tigers, they only have 2 other fit options that appear to play center, Tupou and Kei, both are $220k.
    I may have a bunch of cheap CTRs in my EMG this season
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:03 am

    mattnz wrote:With Gildart locked in as one center for Tigers, they only have 2 other fit options that appear to play center, Tupou and Kei, both are $220k.

    Roberts on train-and-trial and likely to be signed back into the squad though, yeah?
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    Post by mattnz Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:19 am

    filthridden wrote:

    Roberts on train-and-trial and likely to be signed back into the squad though, yeah?
    Doubt they need yet another center, have 2 others to come back from injury. Surely they don't need a 6th center in a 30 man squad?
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:10 am

    Toby Sexton - What is not to like? Small sample but high ceiling and high floor. Playing a dominant half role and seemingly undervalued?
    Pookus McFly
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    Post by Pookus McFly Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:36 am

    The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:Toby Sexton - What is not to like? Small sample but high ceiling and high floor. Playing a dominant half role and seemingly undervalued?

    I don’t like that his scores came at the back end of the season with the Titans toweling up terrible sides with no finals aspirations.

    The biggest problem with the small sample size isnt the lack of information but that it can easily skew data. Like with the game where he had an outlier tackle count of 34. Bare with me in the ultimate in cherry picking maneuverers (you will love this one Dolphin)- but if he only makes 19 tackles that game (the average for his other three games, and still 1 point higher than the average for halfbacks), with only a 4 game sample size his season average drops 5 points to 55. You can take off another 2 points because he wont average 3.8 goals.

    I do think he is still a little undervalued, but certainly not the 10 point difference from his 2021 average to 2022 pricing. He would definitely want to retain the goal kicking too or he wont make his pricetag. If you were not running Cleary then he is actually probably not a bad pick, but its a lot of cash to sit next to $1.05M when there are plenty of cheap halves around.
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:44 am

    mattnz wrote:Last year was an unusual one. Very few cows that kicked on, we had guns becoming super-guns.

    Milchcow wrote:

    There were many cows that kicked on last year

    Top 20 money makers as below - almost all of them available at $300k or under.
    There were some guns that also made money, including guys like Cleary. But to say few cows kicked on is just wrong.

       
    NameMinMaxDiff
    Tom Trbojevic4770001098000621000
    Josh Curran246000683000437000
    Jake Averillo291000714000423000
    Nicho Hynes327000744000417000
    Reuben Garrick367000780000413000
    Corey Harawira-Naera310000721000411000
    Braydon Trindall228000630000402000
    Reece Walsh228000629000401000
    Jayden Brailey410000796000386000
    Stefano Utoikamanu246000626000380000
    Tyson Gamble246000615000369000
    Josh Schuster274000613000339000
    Haumole Olakau'atu292000629000337000
    Isaiah Papali'i529000855000326000
    Sam Walker228000551000323000
    Connor Watson323000643000320000

    mattnz wrote:

    So of the list you provided, which was the top money makers for the season, there was only 1 highly owned player that consistently performed throughout the season.

    The rest were unexpected PODs or had a glimpse of form at the start or end of season. None were consistent performers like a Haas, Grant, Nikora etc in their breakout cow seasons.

    Really different from most seasons. Case closed!

    A few observations on this:

    1/ Milch, your list of the top 20 money makers, only has 16 people. I hope you're not a Maths teacher Laughing  

    2/ Matt claimed "Very few cows that kicked on"
    Milch claimed "There were many cows that kicked on last year"

    Of the top 16 money makers listed, 12 (i.e. 75%) were within $100k of basement price (i.e. cows) - I think that's a pretty clear case that there were a significant number of cows that kicked on.

    3/ Matt's point seemed to revolve around ownership, so I'm guessing what you meant was that there weren't any obvious cheap cows available for Round 1 that made lots of money.
    However, in your list of "consistent performers like Haas, Grant, Nikora" - only Nikora was a round 1 cow.

    As someone said earlier, the best cows seldom are round one starters, it's why the game is primarily a trading game. You can't win with a starting squad, but if you get it wrong by going too POD, you can set yourself far enough back that it's a real handicap to your trading game.


    Last edited by easytiger on Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:42 am; edited 1 time in total
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:02 am

    robelgordo wrote:

    I’m not saying Leniu is going to be a good pick, but he’s surely a better pick in 2022 than he was in 2021.

    And if he’s not this year than I’ll be saying the same thing in 2023, because it feels like a player of his talent eventually has to make the leap from 20 min impact to significant 35-40 min role in the middle rotation.

    Exactly like when Mofo burst onto the scene. Had all the makings of fantasy prospect but needed to grow into first grade. Problem with Leniu is JFH and Yeo taking all the minutes so he won't ever reach gun level while at the same club as those two but he could be a decent cow

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